Carolina Hurricanes vs. Tampa Bay Lightning 10/07/11 Scoring Chances

Now it’s time for the moment you’ve all been waiting for…sort of. One of the main things I was planning to do with this blog is record scoring chances for the Carolina Hurricanes. For those of you new to this, a scoring chance is a shot that’s directed towards the net from a rough, “home-plate” shaped area in the offensive zone. The exact area is kind of tough to describe so I’ll just show you this diagram instead to give you an idea of what I’m talking about. Scoring chances is similar to corsi where it is a plus/minus system that is based on how many shots a player was on ice for, but we are only counting shots that came in a dangerous, scoring area which is displayed in the diagram I linked above. This gives an idea of which players are creating the most offense for their teams. Me, along with dozens of other hockey bloggers, are recording chances for their favorite teams this season so this information can be available for everyone on the Internet. All of this is possible thanks to Vic Ferrari and his time on ice web site which allows you to plug in the scoring chance data you recorded and it displays them in these easy-to-read tables that I will post below.

After the jump, we’ll take a look at how the Canes did tonight against the Lightning.

Period Total EV PP 5v3 PP SH 5v3 SH
1 9 5 8 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 6 7 6 3 0 2 0 1 0 1 0 0
3 6 7 5 6 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 21 19 19 14 2 3 0 1 0 1 0 0

Carolina’s chances are red and Tampa’s are blue in case you didn’t figure that out.

Carolina actually out-chanced Tampa bay in this game but a lot of it was due to that strong first period where they put a lot of pressure on Tampa Bay and took the lead. After that, it was all downhill for Carolina. Tampa Bay outchanced them in the second period thanks to a couple of powerplay opportunities (and a very ineffective Carolina powerplay) and did not let up after that as they ran away with this game. Usually a team manages to create more chances when they play from behind and Carolina did not do that which is a pretty big problem.

This chart basically illustrates what I said in the recap earlier. The Canes started off strong but could not capitalize on the powerplay while Tampa Bay did. This also shows how the 5-on-3 was the turning point in this game as Tampa Bay outchanced Carolina in the second and third periods and this actually makes it seem a lot closer than it actually was. Carolina had thei stats padded thanks to a couple of chances generated in the final two minutes.

Now we’ll see how Carolina’s players did individually.

# Player EV PP SH +/- EV Chance%
5 Bryan Allen 14:42 6 3 0:13 0 0 1:53 0 1 +3 .667
6 Tim Gleason 16:30 9 6 0:00 0 0 3:40 0 2 +3 .600
12 Eric Staal 15:10 4 7 3:02 1 0 0:28 0 0 -3 .363
13 Anthony Stewart 9:32 2 2 0:00 0 0 0:00 0 0 0 .500
15 Tuomo Ruutu 11:41 4 6 3:05 1 0 0:00 0 0 -2 .400
16 Brandon Sutter 10:14 5 3 3:32 1 1 3:56 0 2 +2 .625
19 Jiri Tlusty 11:30 9 2 0:09 0 0 0:14 0 1 +7 .818
22 Zac Dalpe 10:38 2 3 0:00 0 0 0:00 0 0 -1 .400
23 Alexei Ponikarovsky 9:07 4 2 3:24 1 1 0:47 0 0 +2 .667
25 Joni Pitkanen 15:27 6 8 5:46 2 0 3:05 0 2 -2 .428
28 Justin Faulk 16:38 7 5 1:39 0 1 1:26 0 0 +2 .583
30 Cam Ward 46:25 18 14 6:48 2 1 6:24 0 3 +4 .562
36 Jussi Jokinen 13:40 9 4 3:21 1 1 0:14 0 1 +5 .692
37 Tim Brent 9:46 2 2 0:11 0 0 2:07 0 1 0 .500
39 Patrick Dwyer 8:42 5 3 0:10 0 0 3:09 0 1 +2 .625
44 Jay Harrison 13:50 3 4 1:10 0 1 2:44 0 1 -1 .428
51 Tomas Kaberle 15:55 7 2 5:02 2 0 0:00 0 0 +5 .777
53 Jeff Skinner 12:58 4 6 3:19 1 0 0:00 0 0 -2 .400
59 Chad LaRose 13:07 8 1 0:09 0 0 1:53 0 0 +7 .888

Definitely some interesting information here. If you had asked me after the game, I would have said the Canes first line was their best line on the ice while the others struggled but the scoring chance data begs to differ. What does stick out to me is how little of a factor guys like Ponikarovsky, Dalpe, Stewart and Brent played in this game which is understandable given how much ice time they were playing.

That said, I do think Staal looked a little off tonight and Skinner seemed to carry the first line more than him. This also says that the second line of Chad LaRose, Jiri Tlusty and Jussi Jokinen was the team’s best line tonight and I wouldn’t have guessed it from watching the game, but I do remember Jokinen creating a lot of chances tonight. We’ll have to see what this data looks like after about 10 games before it becomes anything valid, though. There’s a possibility that Tlustly-Jokinen-LaRose can get something going and the goals will come to them…or this could be just a one-game thing. Either way, I stand by my previous statement that Tlusty’s offensive skillset isn’t enough for me to want him playing on the team’s “second line” and I’d rather see someone with more finishing power there instead.

Other observations I made was that Jay Harrison and Joni Pitkanen were the only defensemen to not finish above .500 here and you can see that Harrison didn’t create one chance on the powerplay but he gave one up in his own end. Why was he on the powerplay again? Kaberle, Gleason and Allen all turned in solid performances at even strength tonight.

Since the corsi and zone start reports on timeonice.com are not available yet, let’s take a look at the head-to-head scoring chances to get a better idea of how they played:

Enlarge picture here

If you’re having trouble reading the chart, I’ll break it down for you: This is showing how many chances a Hurricane player had for and against him when a certain Lightning player was on the ice. For instance, Eric Staal had a SC rating of 2 when he was put against Brett Connolly and -4 when he was against Victor Hedman.

I did my best to sort these by line combination but the coaches did a lot of juggling this game so it was difficult to figure out the exact matchups. Anyway, Tlustly’s line had a very good night when it came to generating chances but they did most of their damage against Dominic Moore’s line and the defense pairing of Pavel Kubina and Marc-Andre Bergeron. Moore can handle tough draws but Shannon and Connolly receive a lot of protection and so does Bergeron so that should tell you where Tlusty started a lot of his shifts. The Moore line and Kubina-Bergeron defense pairing were picked apart big time tonight. Meanwhile, Ruutu-Staal-Skinner had to deal with Eric Brewer and big Victor Hedman for most of this game and that’s a really tough match-up. Odd that Maurice couldn’t get this line away from those two despite having the last change. Kubina-Bergeron and Clark-Gilroy were having a lot of trouble handling the Canes top lines tonight so you would think that Maurice could have done a better job to use the last line change to his advantage.

Scoring Chances in chronological order:

Team Period Time Note CAR Opponent
TBL 1 18:29 Stamkos 6 23 25 30 36 39 13 14 22 30 91 97 5v5
CAR 1 15:20 Ponikarovsky 5 16 23 30 39 44 9 13 26 30 47 91 5v5
TBL 1 13:45 Purcell missed shot from slot 6 12 15 25 30 53 4 12 13 16 30 47 5v5
TBL 1 13:25 Malone 6 12 15 25 30 53 2 4 12 16 30 77 5v5
CAR 1 11:53 Skinner – GOAL 6 12 15 25 36 53 4 7 12 16 30 97 5v5
CAR 1 11:37 Brent 13 22 28 30 37 51 13 19 22 30 44 47 5v5
CAR 1 10:22 Dwyer 6 16 23 25 30 39 7 9 26 30 91 97 5v5
CAR 1 9:48 Skinner shot goes wide 6 12 15 25 30 53 16 26 30 47 91 97 5v5
CAR 1 8:01 LaRose 5 6 19 30 36 59 7 13 14 19 22 30 5v5
CAR 1 7:59 Rebound chance 5 6 19 30 36 59 7 13 14 19 22 30 5v5
CAR 1 7:52 Jokinen 5 6 19 30 36 59 7 13 14 19 22 30 5v5
TBL 1 5:15 Purcell 6 12 15 25 30 53 2 4 12 16 30 77 5v5
TBL 1 2:20 Lecavalier 6 23 28 30 36 13 14 22 30 97 4v4
CAR 1 1:13 Skinner 12 15 25 30 51 53 2 7 18 30 44 5v4
CAR 2 15:59 Gleason 6 16 23 25 30 39 4 7 12 14 30 97 5v5
CAR 2 15:30 Kaberle 19 28 30 36 51 59 13 14 19 22 30 47 5v5
TBL 2 14:42 St. Louis 12 15 25 28 30 53 2 9 26 30 77 91 5v5
TBL 2 14:41 St. Louis GOAL on rebound 12 15 25 28 30 53 2 9 26 30 77 91 5v5
TBL 2 13:28 Stamkos 6 16 25 30 39 2 4 12 26 30 91 4v5
TBL 2 9:41 Thompson 16 23 28 30 36 44 7 13 22 30 44 5v4
TBL 2 7:50 Stamkos 5 16 30 37 44 9 14 16 30 47 91 4v5
CAR 2 7:11 Skinner 5 30 37 44 53 59 9 14 16 30 47 91 5v5
CAR 2 6:34 Staal 6 12 15 19 25 30 13 14 19 30 44 47 5v5
CAR 2 6:17 LaRose 19 28 30 36 51 59 13 19 22 30 44 47 5v5
CAR 2 2:47 Tlusty 19 28 30 36 51 59 13 19 22 30 47 49 5v5
TBL 2 2:10 Lecavalier – GOAL 5 6 16 30 4 12 16 26 30 91 3v5
TBL 2 0:22 St. Louis 5 16 30 36 39 44 4 26 30 47 77 91 5v5
CAR 3 18:12 Jokinen 19 28 30 36 51 59 13 14 16 19 30 47 5v5
CAR 3 13:57 Staal 12 15 28 30 51 53 7 14 19 22 30 97 5v5
CAR 3 12:14 Jokinen 16 23 25 30 36 51 2 18 30 44 77 5v4
TBL 3 7:38 Downie – GOAL 6 19 25 30 36 9 13 16 22 30 47 4v5
TBL 3 7:28 Hall – GOAL 6 12 19 25 30 36 7 18 30 44 49 77 5v5
TBL 3 6:32 Lecavalier 13 22 25 30 37 44 4 13 16 30 44 97 5v5
CAR 3 3:22 Jokinen 16 23 28 30 39 51 13 14 18 19 30 47 5v5
TBL 3 3:02 Malone – GOAL 5 12 15 30 44 53 2 4 12 16 30 77 5v5
TBL 3 2:51 Thompson 5 13 22 30 37 44 7 22 30 44 49 97 5v5
TBL 3 2:43 Hall 16 22 28 30 51 59 7 14 18 19 30 97 5v5
TBL 3 1:54 Jones 16 19 28 30 39 51 13 16 22 30 47 49 5v5
CAR 3 1:35 Dwyer 6 19 25 30 36 39 13 16 22 30 47 49 5v5
CAR 3 1:30 Sutter 5 13 16 22 30 44 7 14 19 30 44 97 5v5

That’s all I have for this game. Things should be clearer once I do this for a few more games.

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