Game 2 Scoring Chances: Lightning at Hurricanes

For the second game in a row, the Hurricanes outchanced their opponents only to come out on the losing end of a blowout. Despite outchancing both Florida and Tampa Bay by a combined 40-34 and 32-23 at even strength, the Canes have been outscored 2-9 and now find themselves starting the year with an 0-2-0 record. This is frustrating to watch, but the fact that Carolina has been winning the battles at even strength should mean that better days are on the horizon. I mean, simple regression should tell you that the Hurricanes aren't going to continue to shoot at less than 3% forever and Ward won't continue to let in more than 20% of the shots he faces in the long-run. So this team isn't as bad as their -7 goal differential through two games would lead you to believe.

There are some problems with this team, though and the main killer in both games has been slow starts. They had a parade to the penalty box in the first period against Florida resulting in three powerplay goals against. The same trend continued against Tampa Bay, as the Hurricanes created only three scoring chances (despite several offensive zone draws) and allowed two early goals to put themselves in a 2-0 hole heading into the first intermission. Carolina managed to wake up after that and ended up on the right side of the shots and scoring chance ledger, but the slow starts are something that really needs to be fixed. Cam Ward hasn't been playing well enough to bail them out of it and they can't keep spotting teams 1-2 goals five minutes into the game.

Scoring chance breakdown coming after the jump.

Carolina Hurricanes vs. Tampa Bay Lightning 1/22/13

Carolina's chances are in red, Tampa's are in blue
Period Total EV 5v4 5v3 4v5 3v5
1 3 5 2 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 8 6 5 4 3 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
3 8 4 7 2 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0
Totals 19 15 14 11 4 0 0 0 1 4 0 0

This illustrates what I said in the introduction. The Canes got off to a horrible start and spent the rest of the game climbing out of the hole they dug themselves into. They actually had the game within reach in the second period, but two goals in the third by Tampa made the lead insurmountable.  Most of the chances the Hurricanes created in the third came with the less than five minutes remaining when score effects had already taken their toll, so the fact that they had a +4 chance differential in this game isn't as impressive as it may appear. Lightning goaltender Mathieu Garon definitely had to work late in the game to keep it 4-1 but it wouldn't have made much of a difference regarding the Canes having a chance to win. At least the penalty kill didn't totally stink.

Carolina Individual Scoring Chances

# Player EV PP SH
6 Tim Gleason 15:41 3 3 0:00 0 0 5:42 1 3
8 Kevin Westgarth 3:22 0 0 0:00 0 0 0:00 0 0
11 Jordan Staal 12:48 6 2 4:12 4 0 3:30 0 2
12 Eric Staal 15:19 8 6 5:04 4 0 2:28 1 1
19 Jiri Tlusty 13:18 4 2 2:57 0 0 2:56 0 1
21 Drayson Bowman 13:34 6 6 0:05 0 0 0:00 0 0
23 Jeremy Welsh 5:46 0 0 0:00 0 0 0:00 0 0
24 Bobby Sanguinetti 12:40 6 6 0:00 0 0 0:18 0 0
25 Joni Pitkanen 15:16 6 6 4:44 2 0 2:55 0 0
27 Justin Faulk 17:32 3 2 3:18 2 0 5:26 1 3
28 Alexander Semin 16:31 9 7 5:24 4 0 1:27 1 1
30 Cam Ward 43:21 14 11 8:02 4 0 8:37 1 4
36 Jussi Jokinen 9:54 0 4 2:58 0 0 2:37 0 0
37 Tim Brent 5:49 0 0 0:00 0 0 0:39 0 1
39 Patrick Dwyer 11:44 4 0 0:00 0 0 2:27 0 0
44 Jay Harrison 13:04 5 3 0:00 0 0 2:53 0 0
53 Jeff Skinner 10:36 3 4 5:24 4 0 0:20 0 0
59 Chad LaRose 9:22 1 4 3:06 0 0 0:50 0 0
77 Joe Corvo 12:25 5 3 2:58 0 0 0:00 0 0

Best EV Forwards: Patrick Dwyer & Jordan Staal +4

Worst EV Forward: Jussi Jokinen -4

Best EV Defenseman: Jay Harrison & Joe Corvo +2

Worst EV Defenseman: Bobby Sanguinetti & Joni Pitkanen EVEN

Remember how I said that Jussi Jokinen's line could have a potential breakout game? Boy, was I wrong there. He along with LaRose and Skinner created zero even strength scoring chances when they played together and somehow allowed Tom Pyatt's line to run them over. Skinner was a non-factor until he was bumped up to Eric Staal's line late in the third period and all of the scoring chances he was on-ice for came when he was with that unit. I'd expect him to stay there for at least the next game as Kirk Muller will continue to play with the lineups until he finds four units who can work well together.

One unit that did manage to work well was Jordan Staal's line with Jiri Tlusty and Patrick Dwyer, who were terrific in all three zones. I didn't expect this unit to produce much offense since Dwyer has a limited skill-set but he was on-ice for four scoring chances and didn't surrender any in his own end. Meanwhile, Jordan Staal won his matchup against the Stamkos line and produced an impressive amount of offense to go with it. That's exactly why the Canes acquried him.

Eric Staal and Alexander Semin gave up a lot of scoring chances in their own end but they were also responsible for about half of Carolina's offense last night. Semin was on-ice for nine of Carolina's 13 scoring chances and 14 of the 19 total chances they created in the entire game. I should also mention that he created five of them on his own, including one shorthanded bid. The pucks are going to go in for him eventually if he keeps this up, because he was a force offensively.

Defense wasn't exactly a major problem for the Canes last night since they gave up only 11 scoring chances at even strength, but the pairing of Joni PItkanen and Bobby Sanguinetti had a lot of problems when it came to playing in their own end. Sure, they were on-ice for six even strength chances thanks to that late flurry by Eric Staal's line, but they were also on-ice for OVER HALF of the scoring chances Carolina gave up. It's safe to say that these two won't be playing together for awhile.

On a more positive note, Tim Gleason and Justin Faulk had a fantastic night defensively, surrendering only two scoring chances when they played together and Faulk had a great night against the Stamkos line. His offensive production was much lower than it was on Saturday night but the fact that he got the job done in a shutdown role against one of the league's best goal-scorers is very impressive. Whether or not these two stay together will depend on what Muller wants to do with Faulk because while they have the makings of a good shutdown pairing, it may come at the expense of Faulk's offensive upside. At the same time, the Canes have enough puck-movers on their blue-line that they will probably take that trade-off.

As for Corvo and Harrison, they were harmless and got the job done as the third-pairing, which is all you can ask of them.

Lightning Individual Scoring Chances

# Player EV PP SH
2 Eric Brewer 17:12 3 7 0:02 0 0 5:08 0 4
3 Keith Aulie 11:13 2 4 0:20 0 0 0:47 0 0
4 Vincent Lecavalier 15:26 6 7 4:30 2 1 0:00 0 0
6 Sami Salo 13:10 3 6 3:31 1 0 3:16 0 0
11 Tom Pyatt 9:03 6 2 0:02 0 0 3:16 0 2
12 Ryan Malone 8:47 0 2 3:56 2 0 1:36 0 0
16 Teddy Purcell 13:24 5 5 4:43 0 1 0:00 0 0
18 Adam Hall 6:34 0 0 0:18 0 0 3:25 0 3
19 BJ Crombeen 6:47 1 0 0:18 0 0 2:37 0 0
25 Matt Carle 15:20 4 6 5:05 4 1 2:41 0 1
26 Martin St. Louis  15:14 2 6 5:04 1 1 0:00 0 0
29 Brendan Mikkelson 13:24 2 1 0:45 1 0 0:00 0 0
32 Mathieu Garon   11 14   4 1   0 4
42 Dana Tyrell 7:15 0 2 0:18 0 0 1:04 0 0
44 Nate Thompson 8:15 3 2 0:04 0 0 3:46 0 1
67 Benoit Pouliot 11:50 5 4 3:06 3 0 0:00 0 0
77 Victor Hedman 16:27 6 4 2:48 2 0 4:12 0 3
89 Cory Conacher 10:53 4 6 3:13 3 0 0:06 0 2
91 Steven Stamkos 14:37 2 4 5:02 1 1 0:00 0 0

Best EV Forward: Tom Pyatt +4

Worst EV Forward: Martin St. Louis -4

Best EV Defenseman: Victor Hedman +2

Worst EV Defenseman: Eric Brewer -4

Head-to-Head at Five-on-Five

The most frustrating part about yesterday's game? Jordan Staal's line dominated, Stamkos & St. Louis but the Hurricanes couldn't take advantage of it because the Jokinen line was outplayed by Tom Pyatt, Benoit Pouliot and Nate Thompson. Pitkanen and Sanguinetti were also beaten up by the Lecavalier line and Carolina's more protected players couldn't do anything against Tampa Bay's third defense unit. Those are matchups the Canes have to take advantage of in the future. Victor Hedman and Matt Carle did a nice job against Eric Staal's line, though.

Scoring Chance Log

Period Team Time Player CAR OPP Strength
1 TBL 14:42 Pyatt – GOAL 53 59 36 24 25 30 4 11 67 6 25 32 5v5
1 TBL 14:14 Pyatt 11 28 21 6 27 30 4 11 67 2 25 32 5v5
1 CAR 13:35 J. Staal 11 19 39 44 77 30 11 42 44 2 25 32 5v5
1 CAR 12:31 E. Staal 12 28 21 24 25 30 4 89 12 3 29 32 5v5
1 TBL 8:25 Lecavalier 12 28 21 24 25 30 4 89 16 6 77 32 5v5
1 TBL 8:24 Conacher – GOAL 12 28 21 24 25 30 4 89 16 6 77 32 5v5
1 TBL 7:55 Thompson 53 59 36 44 77 30 11 44 67 29 77 32 5v5
1 CAr 6:32 Skinner 11 12 53 28 25 30 11 44 2 77 32   5v4
2 CAR 18:57 Dwyer 11 19 39 6 27 30 89 91 26 6 25 32 5v5
2 CAR 18:46 Tlusty 11 19 39 6 27 30 89 91 26 6 25 32 5v5
2 CAR 17:29 Semin 11 12 53 28 25 30 11 18 2 25 32   5v4
2 CAR 16:28 Semin 11 12 53 28 27 30 89 18 2 77 32   5v4
2 CAR 16:25 Skinner – GOAL 11 12 53 28 27 30 89 18 2 77 32   5v4
2 CAR 15:07 E. Staal 12 28 21 24 25 30 4 16 67 2 25 32 5v5
2 CAR 14:21 Faulk 11 19 39 6 27 30 89 91 26 6 77 32 5v5
2 TBL 14:11 Hedman 19 59 36 6 27 30 89 91 26 3 77 32 5v5
2 TBL 12:11 Stamkos 12 28 21 6 27 30 89 91 26 2 25 32 5v5
2 CAR 10:49 E. Staal 12 28 21 44 77 30 4 16 67 2 25 32 5v5
2 TBL 9:02 Carle 12 28 6 27 30   4 89 67 25 77 32 4v5
2 TBL 5:16 Pouliot 12 28 21 24 25 30 4 16 67 6 77 32 5v5
2 TBL 3:21 Conacher 11 19 6 27 30   4 89 67 25 77 32 4v5
2 TBL 0:41 Pyatt 12 28 21 44 77 30 11 44 19 2 25 32 5v5
3 TBL 18:23 Aulie – GOAL 53 59 36 44 77 30 11 44 67 3 29 32 5v5
3 CAR 16:31 Semin 12 28 24 25 30   4 16 6 77 32   4v4
3 CAR 14:23 Semin 12 28 6 27 30   4 91 16 26 25 32 4v5
3 TBL 13:56 Malone 11 19 24 25 30   89 12 67 25 29 32 4v5
3 CAR 10:54 E. Staal 12 28 21 44 77 30 4 42 16 6 77 32 5v5
3 TBL 10:03 Malone – GOAL 11 37 6 27 30   91 26 12 6 25 32 4v5
3 CAR 4:31 Bowman 11 28 21 24 25 30 89 91 26 2 3 32 5v5
3 CAR 4:29 J. Staal 11 28 21 24 25 30 89 91 26 2 3 32 5v5
3 CAR 4:16 Semin 12 53 28 24 25 30 4 16 67 2 3 32 5v5
3 TBL 3:50 Purcell 12 53 28 24 25 30 4 11 16 6 77 32 5v5
3 CAR 3:40 E. Staal 12 53 59 44 77 30 11 44 12 6 77 32 5v5
3 CAR 1:39 Skinner 12 53 28 44 77 30 4 26 67 2 25 32 5v5

 

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