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Game 29 Inside the Numbers: Panthers at Hurricanes

There are a few games which we can point to as the low point of the Hurricanes season and last night's game where they lost 4-1 to Florida might be at the top of the list. Not only did they get blown out at home, but they also gave up 25 scoring chances to a team that was missing a few key players and has been sitting at the bottom of the Eastern Conference for the majority of the season. Chalk it up to tired players, lack of effort or whatever you want to call it, but in the words of Homer Simpson, the Hurricanes "just plain sucked' last night and there isn't much else to say.

I'm going to make this brief because I'm sure many people want to forget about this game as soon as possible.

Florida Panthers at Carolina Hurricanes 3/19/13

Period Total EV 5v4 5v3 4v5 3v5
1 7 10 7 9 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 5 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 2 0 0
3 9 10 7 7 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 2
Totals 18 25 15 18 2 2 0 0 1 3 0 2

It's kind of amazing that this game stayed tied for as long as it did because Florida outplayed Carolina for the majority of the first two periods and were able to pull away thanks to an advantage in special teams. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, performances like this can NOT happen against a team in as bad of shape as the Panthers are right now. I give credit to Florida because they played a great game, but the Hurricanes defense made things easy for them by constantly giving up the blue-line, surrendering breakaway chances and losing puck battles. Despite the Hurricanes scoring only one goal, I think the chart above shows that defense is a far bigger issue for them. Dan Ellis isn't going to bail this team out of every tough game, so they will need to tighten up in a bad way, which is going to be very difficult with Justin Faulk out of the lineup for the next two weeks.

Hurricanes Individual Scoring Chances

# Player EV PP SH
4 Jamie McBain 18:57 3 7 2:56 1 1 1:28 0 2
6 Tim Gleason 18:42 8 3 0:31 0 0 3:08 1 4
8 Kevin Westgarth 7:05 3 1 0:00 0 0 0:00 0 0
11 Jordan Staal 16:02 4 8 2:52 1 1 0:32 0 2
12 Eric Staal 16:59 5 7 2:49 2 1 1:26 1 1
18 Adam Hall 10:01 7 1 0:00 0 0 0:25 0 0
19 Jiri Tlusty 13:17 5 8 1:44 0 0 0:00 0 0
20 Riley Nash 11:40 2 2 0:16 0 0 0:00 0 0
21 Drayson Bowman  11:48 2 2 0:56 1 0 0:35 0 1
24 Bobby Sanguinetti 14:05 5 5 0:46 1 0 1:36 1 1
25 Joni Pitkanen  20:22 0 9 2:43 1 1 1:25 0 3
27 Justin Faulk 9:21 5 3 0:50 0 1 0:00 0 0
28 Alexander Semin 16:28 5 7 3:19 0 0 0:29 1 0
31 Dan Ellis  49:02 15 18 5:57 2 2 4:01 1 5
36 Jussi Jokinen 9:18 0 2 2:07 0 1 2:03 0 2
37 Tim Brent 7:47 4 1 2:38 1 1 0:00 0 0
39 Patrick Dwyer 14:46 5 8 1:07 1 1 0:00 0 0
44 Jay Harrison  17:00 9 7 1:30 0 1 0:28 0 0
53 Jeff Skinner  17:29 3 7 2:41 1 1 0:00 0 0

Best EV Forward:  Adam Hall +6

Worst EV Forwards: Jeff SKinner & Jordan Staal -4

Best EV Defenseman: Tim Gleason +5

Worst EV Defenseman: Joni Pitkanen -9

In a complete reversal from the last two games, the Hurricanes got a strong game out of their bottom-six against Florida but their top forwards all struggled. Adam Hall was the team's best forward and he played barely over 10 minutes while both Staal brothers had very tough games. I don't know if they were laboring after playing so many minutes in the last 48 hours, but they were not up to standard for whatever reason. As good as Hall was, it is never a good sign when the fourth line is one of your team's only bright spots.

Here you can see how much damage Faulk's absence did. The Hurricanes were getting the better of scoring chances when he was in the lineup, but his injury forced Jamie McBain & Joni Pitkanen to play more minutes, which resulted in a complete disaster. Pitkanen was Jack Johnson-bad last night as he let Florida's second line run all over him whenever he was on the ice. McBain also had some struggles and he was nearly responsible for giving up a breakaway chance to Tomas Fleischmann but he badly missed the net. Thankfully, games like this for Pitkanen are rare.

The Hurricanes are going to need someone to fill in for Faulk's minutes these next couple of weeks and based on last night's game, Tim Gleason may have at least earned himself a look. He was protected matchup-wise, but he did a fine job of limiting Florida's chances and has experience playing tough matchups in the past. His only miscue was getting his wires crossed with Bobby Sanguinetti on Fleischmann's goal and the error was more on Sanguientti than him.

Panthers Individual Scoring Chances

# Player EV PP SH
3 TJ Brennan  13:35 3 8 2:14 2 1 0:05 0 0
11 Jonathan Huberdeau 15:20 7 6 1:07 1 1 0:00 0 0
12 Jack Skille 13:35 6 2 0:00 0 0 1:25 1 0
13 Mike Santorelli 11:56 0 5 0:00 0 0 0:00 0 0
14 Tomas Fleischmann 13:36 6 2 2:33 4 0 0:33 0 0
15 Drew Shore 15:32 8 8 0:00 1 1 0:58 0 1
17 Filip Kuba 15:09 3 2 1:47 3 0 4:06 1 2
18 Shawn Matthias 12:16 4 3 1:28 0 0 1:45 1 1
19 Scottie Upshall 12:21 4 3 0:00 0 0 0:00 0 0
23 Tyson Strachan 19:59 11 5 0:00 0 0 1:25 1 0
25 Jerred Smithson 7:45 0 3 0:00 0 0 2:25 0 0
35 Jacob Markstrom  50:02 18 15 4:01 5 1 5:57 2 2
44 Erik Gudbranson  16:54 3 3 0:00 0 0 3:07 1 1
47 Colby Robak 13:17 3 7 0:29 0 1 0:00 0 0
51 Brian Campbell 21:10 13 5 3:32 5 0 3:11 1 1
57 Marcel Goc 13:57 6 1 1:34 3 0 2:12 2 1
76 Eric Selleck 7:47 1 4 0:00 0 0 0:00 0 0
82 Tomas Kopecky 13:39 6 2 1:21 2 0 2:36 0 1
88 Peter Mueller 11:54 6 6 2:03 2 1 0:00 0 0

Best EV Forward: Marcel Goc +5

Worst EV Forward: Mike Santorelli -5

Best EV Defenseman: Brian Campbell +8

Worst EV Defenseman: TJ Brennan -5

Just about all of Florida's top players won the scoring chance battle against Carolina's top two lines and that's what ultimately won them the game. Their depth forwards and third defense pairing were spanked, but having another team's fourth line beat you isn't that bad in the grand scheme of things. Brian Campbell also had a hell of a game carrying this team offensively. He has been a menace to the Hurricanes this season and I'm sure they are glad they won't have to deal with him again.

Head-to-Head at Five-on-Five

Goc's line ended up winning their matchup against Eric Staal and Jordan's line could not drive the play against anything Florida put in the way of them. The only matchup the Hurricanes did win was their fourth line against Florida's and that's not going to win you a lot of games. Not when your top-six can't drive the play and your second defense pairing takes this kind of damage from the opposition's third line. This is the type of game you want to throw away and forget about, but the Hurricanes have had way too many of these as of late. It's time to turn it around.

Period Team Time Player CAR OPP Strength
1 FLA 19:07 Fleischmann 11 19 28 6 24 31 57 82 14 23 51 35 5v5
1 CAR 18:49 E. Staal 12 19 28 6 24 31 57 82 14 23 51 35 5v5
1 CAR 16:22 Westgarth 11 7 17 26 44 31 11 15 88 3 47 35 5v5
1 CAR 16:06 J. Staal 11 17 38 26 44 31 11 15 88 3 47 35 5v5
1 CAR 15:51 Dwyer 11 53 39 27 44 31 11 15 88 23 51 35 5v5
1 FLA 14:31 Skille 11 53 27 4 25 31 57 12 17 44 35   5v4
1 CAR 13:31 Bowman 20 39 21 6 44 31 13 18 19 3 47 35 5v5
1 FLA 12:24 Campbell 11 53 39 27 44 31 11 15 77 23 51 35 5v5
1 FLA 12:05 Huberdeau 11 53 39 27 44 31 11 15 88 23 51 35 5v5
1 FLA 10:44 Upshall 37 8 18 4 25 31 18 12 19 3 44 35 5v5
1 CAR 10:31 Hall 37 8 18 6 24 31 18 12 19 3 44 35 5v5
1 FLA 9:06 Fleischmann 12 19 28 4 25 31 57 82 14 23 51 35 5v5
1 FLA 9:02 Kopecky 12 19 28 4 25 31 57 82 14 23 51 35 5v5
1 FLA 8:26 Mueller 11 53 39 27 44 31 11 15 88 17 44 35 5v5
1 FLA 4:40 Shore 11 53 39 4 25 31 11 15 12 3 47 35 5v5
1 FLA 4:17 Matthias 11 53 39 4 25 31 18 12 19 23 51 35 5v5
1 CAR 3:58 Dwyer 37 18 39 6 27 31 18 12 19 23 51 35 5v5
2 FLA 18:07 Skille 20 21 36 4 25 31 18 12 19 47 51 35 5v5
2 CAR 13:50 J. Staal 11 53 39 27 44 31 11 15 88 3 47 35 5v5
2 FLA 5:54 Goc 12 19 37 36 44 31 18 57 23 51 35   5v4
2 CAR 4:56 E. Staal 12 37 39 21 24 31 15 18 17 51 35   5v4
2 FLA 2:09 Brennan 12 4 25 31     57 14 3 51 35   3v4
2 FLA 2:01 Fleischmann 36 6 24 31     88 14 3 51 35   3v4
2 FLA 0:10 Shore 11 53 39 6 44 31 15 12 19 17 44 35 5v5
3 FLA 19:04 Fleischmann 12 19 27 4 25 31 57 82 14 23 51 35 5v5
3 CAR 18:02 Hall 37 8 18 6 24 31 13 25 76 3 47 35 5v5
3 FLA 16:55 Huberdeau 12 19 28 4 44 31 11 15 88 23 51 35 5v5
3 CAR 16:22 E. Staal 12 19 28 4 44 31 11 15 88 23 51 35 5v5
3 CAR 16:21 Tlusty 12 19 28 4 44 31 11 15 88 23 51 35 5v5
3 FLA 14:36 Selleck 12 19 39 24 25 31 18 12 76 3 47 35 5v5
3 FLA 12:22 Fleischmann – GOAL 11 53 39 6 24 31 57 82 14 23 51 35 5v5
3 CAR 11:02 Skinner 37 53 18 6 44 31 13 25 76 3 47 35 5v5
3 FLA 10:05 Goc 20 21 36 4 25 31 57 82 14 17 44 35 5v5
3 FLA 9:40 Mueller 12 19 28 24 44 31 11 15 88 23 51 35 5v5
3 FLA 9:34 Huberdeau 12 19 28 24 44 31 11 15 88 23 51 35 5v5
3 FLA 7:20 Kuba 11 6 25 31     57 82 14 17 51 35 3v5
3 FLA 7:13 Goc – GOAL 11 6 25 31     57 82 14 17 51 35 3v5
3 CAR 6:44 Sanguinetti 12 28 6 24 31   11 15 88 3 47 35 4v5
3 FLA 6:09 Matthias – GOAL 21 36 4 6 31   11 15 88 17 51 35 4v5
3 CAR 4:53 Hall 20 18 21 4 44 31 25 82 14 3 47 35 5v5
3 CAR 4:00 Gleason 12 19 28 6 24 31 13 15 76 17 44 35 5v5
3 CAR 3:59 Semin 12 19 28 6 24 31 13 15 76 17 44 35 5v5
3 CAR 2:33 J Staal – GOAL 11 12 53 4 25 31 57 82 17 44 35   5v4

 

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