CanesDucks111513

Game 19 By the Numbers: Ducks at Hurricanes

There are a few ways you can look at the Hurricanes shootout victory over the Anaheim Ducks last night. On one hand, the Hurricanes defeated the "best" team in the NHL and were able to fight back from another early deficit to do it. They also saw had another solid defensive effort, holding the Ducks to only nine scoring chances at even strength, providing goaltender Justin Peters with plenty of support yet again. The other side of the story is that the Hurricanes were grossly outplayed by the Ducks at even strength and needed a skills competition in order to secure two points. This suggests that they were more lucky than good last night and anybody who watched the game will probably agree with this sentiment.

The ongoing narrative with this team over the last couple of weeks is that they've "found ways to win" and while they have played well during this stretch, last night was one of their better games. Despite playing the night before, Anaheim was the more energized team and dictated the pace of play. The Ducks are a very good team and the Hurricanes aren't going to win the possession battle against everyone, but Carolina's quest for offense is going to be a real problem down the road. It's nice to see the team showing a commitment to defense, but the Canes had a lot of trouble with turning that into rushes the other way in last night's game.

Yes, they ended up winning and that's the only thing that matters but luck aided them quite a bit.

Fenwick Timeline from Extra Skater

Basically, it was all Anaheim last night at even strength. They didn't exactly crush Carolina on the shot clock but they spent most of the game with the puck and had it in the Hurricanes' zone for long stretches of time. This was especially the case in the first period, where Carolina could not sustain any sort of forecheck and recorded a total of four shots as a result. The Hurricanes showed some life in the second period and began to even the shot count a little as the game went on, but Anaheim had a pretty big advantage overall. Alexander Semin scoring on that late power play in the second period proved to be huge since the Hurricanes couldn't get much going at even strength. Anaheim forced the issue a bit, as they clogged up the neutral zone for most of the game, force turnovers and cycle the puck well after they gained the zone.

And yet, somehow they ended up losing this game in a shootout. Why? The aforementioned power play goal by Semin was one factor, but the play of Justin Peters was another. He is playing some of the best hockey of his career right now and made just about every save he needed to. Another reason why the Hurricanes were able to stay close with Anaheim despite getting outplayed is they played a solid game defensively. Yes, Anaheim won the possession battle by a wide margin but the scoring chance count tells a different story.

Scoring Chances

Period Total 5v5 PP 5v3 SH 3v5 4v4
1 1 3 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 5 4 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0
3 3 6 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0
OT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
Totals 10 13 8 9 1 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 1 0

Only one-third of the Ducks total shots were scoring chances and they had a total of nine at even strength, showing that the Hurricanes defended the house well and were able to make Peters' life easier. A good majority of Anaheim's chances came off turnovers (see Corey Perry's goal) or in transition where the Hurricanes were playing a more open game. When the Ducks were able to establish a forecheck, Carolina's players were in good position and clogged up most of the shooting lanes so that the Ducks had to work to get their chances.

Those who have watched Carolina for years are probably loving this commitment to team defense and while I am not against it, the downside of this strategy is that the Canes offense has kind of fallen off dramatically. I'm not sure how much these two factors or correlated, but you aren't going to win many games where you create only 10 total chances in 65 minutes of play. Most have said that with the talent this team has, the offense will come around eventually but they could definitely use a spark, especially at even strength.

Hurricanes Individual Scoring Chances

Player Goals Shots Chances Attempts
Drayson Bowman 1 6 4 9
Alexander Semin 1 3 2 8
Jordan Staal 0 2 1 2
Nathan Gerbe 0 2 1 4
Jiri Tlusty 0 1 1 3
Chris Terry 0 1 1 3
Andrej Sekera 0 1 0 2
Mike Komisarek 0 0 0 0
Ryan Murphy 0 1 0 4
Eric Staal 0 0 0 1
Tuomo Ruutu 0 0 0 0
Riley Nash 0 0 0 1
Manny Malhotra 0 0 0 0
Justin Faulk 0 1 0 5
Patrick Dwyer 0 2 0 4
Jay Harrison 0 3 0 4
Ron Hainsey 0 0 0 3
Brett Bellemore 0 0 0 1

 

Hurricanes On-Ice Scoring Chances

# Player 5v5 PP SH 4v4
4 Andrej Sekera 22:44 4 3 1:14 0 0 0:00 0 0   1 0
5 Mike Komisarek 7:35 1 0 0:00 0 0 0:44 0 2   0 0
7 Ryan Murphy 18:13 2 6 1:42 1 0 0:00 0 0   0 0
11 Jordan Staal  18:13 1 2 0:58 0 0 1:14 0 2   1 0
12 Eric Staal 17:09 4 5 2:23 1 0 0:25 0 0   0 0
14 Nathan Gerbe 17:40 1 2 0:58 0 0 1:07 0 1   1 0
15 Tuomo Ruutu 11:37 1 2 1:58 1 0 0:00 0 0   0 0
19 Jiri Tlusty 13:35 2 3 1:14 0 0 0:00 0 0   0 0
20 Riley Nash 11:03 1 2 0:00 0 0 1:11 0 1   0 0
21 Drayson Bowman 13:58 4 3 0:25 0 0 0:00 0 0   0 0
22 Manny Malhotra 12:04 2 1 0:00 0 0 1:21 0 1   0 0
27 Justin Faulk 23:06 3 2 1:42 1 0 0:00 0 0   1 0
28 Alexander Semin 19:57 4 6 2:23 1 0 0:00 0 0   0 0
39 Patrick Dwyer 15:37 2 2 0:00 0 0 2:14 0 3   0 0
44 Jay Harrison 15:36 1 5 0:00 0 0 0:00 0 0   0 0
58 Chris Terry  8:59 1 2 0:58 0 0 0:00 0 0   0 0
65 Ron Hainsey 19:16 3 3 0:25 0 0 3:46 0 4   0 0
73 Brett Bellemore 15:42 3 3 0:25 0 0 3:02 0 2   0 0
35 Justin Peters  57:53 8 9 3:21 1 0 3:46 0 4   1 0

Best EV Forwards: Drayson Bowman, Mike Komisarek & Manny Malhotra +1

Worst EV Forward: Alexander Semin -2

Best EV Defensemen: Justin Faulk & Andrej Sekera, +1

Worst EV Defensemen: Jay Harrison & Ryan Murphy -4

The stats don't exactly match up with the eye-test here, as I didn't think Justin Faulk had his best game. He committed a brutal turnover on Perry's goal and took a bad penalty late in the third period on top of that. However, Perry's goal was one of only two Anaheim chances that he was on the ice for and he appeared to play a solid game away from the puck. For what it's worth, I thought his partner, Sekera, looked great. His skating and play-making are such underrated assets and the Hurricanes were able to create a few chances off his rushes.

One thing the stats & the eyes do agree on is that Drayson Bowman played a great game and was easily Carolina's best forward. Bowman has been struggling to find his role with the Canes for awhile now, but he may have a spot on Eric Staal's line for at least another game. He got the puck on net every chance he got, looked much stronger on the puck than he has all year and scored a beautiful goal to top it all off. Bowman alone was responsible for about 22% of Carolina's offense, which is crazy but the Canes need a spark any way they can get it right now.

The only other player who seemed capable of creating any offense was Alexander Semin, who I also thought had an off-night for his standards. He "scored" a huge power play goal to tie the game in the second period, but he had a couple of bad giveaways and is still looking very hesitant after he gains the zone. Still, he created a good chunk of Carolina's offense and was able to get the monkey off his back…sorta.

Ducks Individual Scoring Chances

Player Goals Shots Chances Attempts
Andrew Cogliano 0 3 2 4
Corey Perry 1 3 2 4
Dustin Penner 1 4 2 4
Teemu Selanne 0 1 1 1
Nick Bonino 0 2 1 4
Ryan Getzlaf 0 3 1 5
Kyle Palmieri 0 2 1 3
Emerson Etem 0 1 1 1
Rickard Rakell 0 1 1 2
Devante Smith-Pelly 0 1 1 4
Cam Fowler 0 2 0 4
Ben Lovejoy 0 2 0 5
Francois Beauchemin 0 1 0 4
Mark Fistric 0   0 2
Daniel Winnik 0 1 0 1
Hampus Lindholm 0 1 0 1
Bryan Allen 0 1 0 2
Patrick Maroon 0 1 0 2

Ducks On-Ice Scoring Chances

# Player 5v5 PP SH 4v4
4 Cam Fowler 23:23 4 4 2:12 3 0 1:03 0 0   0 0
6 Ben Lovejoy 20:44 3 4 0:00 0 0 0:50 0 0   0 0
7 Andrew Cogliano 19:12 5 3 0:00 0 0 1:41 0 0   0 1
8 Teemu Selanne 11:00 3 2 1:42 1 0 0:00 0 0   0 0
10 Corey Perry 20:11 2 4 3:09 4 0 0:35 0 0   0 0
13 Nick Bonino 15:59 2 2 1:58 3 0 0:28 0 0   0 1
15 Ryan Getzlaf 19:20 3 5 3:08 4 0 1:24 0 0   0 0
17 Dustin Penner 13:33 2 1 1:58 3 0 0:00 0 0   0 0
21 Kyle Palmieri 8:46 1 1 1:36 1 0 0:00 0 0   0 0
23 Francois Beauchemin 21:31 2 2 1:34 1 0 2:31 0 1   0 1
28 Mark Fistric 11:51 2 1 0:00 0 0 0:00 0 0   0 0
34 Daniel Winnik 10:53 3 0 0:00 0 0 2:13 0 0   0 0
47 Hampus Lindholm 20:54 4 3 0:38 0 0 0:00 0 0   0 1
55 Bryan Allen 17:23 5 2 0:00 0 0 2:18 0 1   0 0
62 Patrick Maroon 8:30 1 0 0:06 0 0 0:00 0 0   0 0
65 Emerson Etem 14:05 2 4 0:37 0 0 0:15 0 1   0 0
67 Rickard Rakell 11:28 2 1 0:00 0 0 0:00 0 0   0 0
77 Devante Smith-Pelly  14:19 4 1 0:00 0 0 0:06 0 1   0 0
30 Viktor Fasth  57:53 9 8 3:46 4 0 3:21 0 1   0 1

Best EV Forwards: Devante Smith-Pelly & Daniel Winnik +3

Worst EV Forwards: Corey Perry, Emerson Etem & Ryan Getzlaf -2

Best EV Defenseman: Bryan Allen +3

Worst EV Defenseman: Ben Lovejoy -1

Anaheim was playing without two of their centers, but still managed to have a pretty balanced attack. Their first line struggled at even strength but they made up for it by getting some good results out of their second and third lines. Cogliano's line gave the Hurricanes a lot of trouble at even strength and the Bonino line also created a couple of chances. That said, their first line showed how lethal they can be on both goals they scored. Despite staying quiet for most of the game, they were able to jump on a bad turnover and make Carolina pay for it. That's what having a finisher like Perry can do for you.

Head-to-Head at Five-on-Five

The Hurricanes have Jordan Staal's line to thank for keeping Getzlaf & Perry in check at even strength. They spent most of the game matched up against each other and Anaheim's top line failed to do much when playing against the younger Staal brother. They also didn't create much against Faulk & Sekera but unfortunately, the one chance they did create ended up in the back of Carolina's net. Although, Anaheim's tough-minute players also rose to the occasion as Cogliano's line & the Fowler/Lovejoy pairing did a good job of shutting down Eric Staal's line. Some of that was negated by the Beauchemin/Fistric pairing's struggles but the duo played a solid game.

5v5 Zone Entries

Hurricanes

 

Player # of entries Shots generated Carry-ins Shots generated Dump-ins Shots generated Failed Entries
Sekera 2 1 1 1 1 0 0
Komisarek 2 1 0 0 2 1 0
Murphy 5 2 2 1 3 1 0
J. Staal 6 3 5 3 1 0 0
E. Staal 4 3 3 3 1 0 0
Gerbe 3 1 3 1 0 0 2
Ruutu 5 1 2 0 3 1 1
Tlusty 4 2 3 2 1 0 0
Nash 2 0 0 0 2 0 1
Bowman 5 4 2 2 3 2 1
Malhotra 4 0 1 0 3 0 0
Faulk 4 0 0 0 4 0 0
Semin 2 1 1 0 1 1 0
Dwyer 6 1 3 1 3 0 0
Harrison 2 2 0 0 2 2 1
Terry 4 1 2 1 2 0 0
Hainsey 4 1 1 1 3 0 0
Bellemore 1 0 0 0 1 0 0
Team 65 24 29 16 36 8 6

Not much to say about Carolina's neutral zone performance other than it was mediocre all-around. They dumped the puck in a lot and didn't generate much offense the times they managed to gain the line with control. Jordan Staal's line was responsible for a little under half of the team's carry-ins, which is a little surprising because they didn't create many chances. Dump-and-chase seemed to be the game plan for the bottom-six and the defense, save for Ryan Murphy.

Ducks

 

Player # of entries Shots generated Carry-ins Shots generated Dump-ins Shots generated Failed Entries
Fowler 1 0 0 0 1 0 0
Lovejoy 2 4 0 0 2 4 0
Cogliano 6 7 3 4 3 3 0
Selanne 2 0 2 0 0 0 0
Perry 6 1 0 0 6 1 1
Bonino 3 3 1 2 2 1 2
Getzlaf 6 1 5 1 1 0 0
Penner 4 2 4 2 0 0 0
Palmieri 1 1 0 0 1 1 0
Beauchemin 1 0 0 0 1 0 1
Fistric 2 0 0 0 2 0 1
Winnik 2 3 1 1 1 2 0
Lindholm 0 1 0 0 0 1 0
Allen 5 1 0 0 5 1 0
Maroon 2 0 1 0 1 0 1
Etem 4 2 3 2 1 0 0
Rakell 2 2 2 2 0 0 1
Smith-Pelly 7 6 5 6 2 0 1
Team 56 34 27 20 29 14 8

The Ducks dominated the territorial play and had some very impressive neutral zone numbers as a result. Cogliano & Smith-Pelly were excellent in this regard and some of their bottom-six players were able to get through the Hurricanes defense relatively easily. The one thing that sticks out to me here is how much Dustin Penner was relied on for entries compared to Getzlaf & Perry. You'd think that would be the other way around.

5v5 Zone Exits

Hurricanes

 

# Player Pos. Touches Carry Pass Other Turnover Icing
4 Andrej Sekera D 19 1 4 0 3 1
5 Mike Komisarek F 5 1 0 0 0 0
7 Ryan Murphy D 23 4 6 0 2 0
11 Jordan Staal C 9 4 0 0 1 0
12 Eric Staal C 8 1 2 0 1 0
14 Nathan Gerbe C 5 0 0 0 0 1
15 Tuomo Ruutu R 2 0 1 0 0 0
19 Jiri Tlusty C 8 0 0 0 1 0
20 Riley Nash C 4 1 1 0 1 0
21 Drayson Bowman L 2 2 0 0 0 0
22 Manny Malhotra C 6 0 0 0 0 1
27 Justin Faulk D 25 0 3 2 1 3
28 Alexander Semin R 8 0 2 0 1 0
39 Patrick Dwyer R 6 0 3 0 1 0
44 Jay Harrison D 17 0 2 2 2 0
58 Chris Terry L 3 1 0 0 1 0
65 Ron Hainsey D 16 2 2 1 1 1
73 Brett Bellemore D 14 0 2 0 0 0
  Forwards   66 10 9 0 7 2
  Defense   114 7 19 5 9 5
  Overall   180 17 28 5 16 7

Some of Carolina's breakouts were hard to watch, mainly ones where they tries to use a forward to get the puck out of the zone. Aside from Jordan Staal, not many of them were heavily relied on to exit the zone and the numbers kind of tell you why. They coughed the puck up a little too much for my liking and made a lot of poor plays on top of that. The same can be said for the defense, although they managed to advance the play a decent number of times.

Ducks

# Player Pos. Touches Carry Pass Other Turnover Icing
4 Cam Fowler D 19 0 3 0 1 0
6 Ben Lovejoy D 24 2 4 0 1 3
7 Andrew Cogliano C 8 2 0 0 0 1
8 Teemu Selanne R 6 2 1 0 0 0
10 Corey Perry R 9 1 3 1 0 0
13 Nick Bonino C 7 0 1 0 0 1
15 Ryan Getzlaf C 16 2 4 1 0 0
17 Dustin Penner R 2 0 0 0 0 0
21 Kyle Palmieri C 5 0 0 1 0 0
23 Francois Beauchemin D 17 0 0 1 2 1
28 Mark Fistric D 10 1 0 0 0 0
34 Daniel Winnik C 6 1 0 1 0 0
47 Hampus Lindholm D 19 0 2 1 1 0
55 Bryan Allen D 20 1 2 0 2 1
62 Patrick Maroon L 2 0 0 0 0 0
65 Emerson Etem R 13 3 1 0 1 0
67 Rickard Rakell R 3 0 0 0 2 0
77 Devante Smith-Pelly R 9 5 2 0 0 0
  Forwards   86 16 12 4 3 2
  Defense   109 4 11 2 7 5
  Overall   195 20 23 6 10 7

Anaheim was the polar opposite of Carolina. Their defense had a tough time leading breakouts, so they made good use of the forwards to exit the zone. Getzlaf seems to be the go-to guy for this but the Cogliano line also had a lot of successful zone exits. The Ducks don't exactly have the most mobile defense in the league, so this is a good strategy for them, especially with their forward depth.

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