Shot quality is a tired subject in the world of hockey analytics because there hasn't been much proof that it exists other than what the eye test tells us. We know that high shooting percentages usually regress to the mean and vice versa, but there are still a lot who believe that some players have better shooting talent than others. This is a topic that should be relevant to Carolina fans interests because the Hurricanes first line had one of the highest on-ice shooting percentages in the league during 5v5 play last year. Basic math tells us that they will regress next season, but how much can we expect them to fall off?

Any line scoring on 12% of the shots they are on the ice for in a full season is unrealistic because only 40 players have been able to do it from 2007-12 and neither Eric Staal or Jiri Tlusty have clicked at this high of a rate before. The same can not be said for winger Alexander Semin, though. Semin has posted on-ice shooting percentages of over 10% in four of the last six seasons and has one of the highest on-ice shooting percentages in the NHL during that time, as well. It's been said that this trio "creates their own luck" by creating a higher quality of shots and the addition of Semin on this line could be a big reason why.

The fact that Semin has consistently posted a high on-ice shooting percentage at even strength shouldn't surprise anyone who has followed him, though. He has always been a great goal-scorer and Carolina fans saw how good of a play-maker he was last season, so that probably factored into him being on the ice for more goals. It has been shown that some players have the ability to boost their line-mates shooting percentages and Semin could be one of those, based on his career numbers and his skillset.

What we don't know, however, is how much of it comes from his play-making skills and how much of it comes from him his own shooting talent. How many extra goals per season does he contribute from this? Is it enough to significantly affect his team? There is also a possibility that his high on-ice shooting percentage is being driven by playing with strong linemates rather than his own ability, although that hypothesis could go out the window when you see that he has the 5th highest 5v5 on-ice shooting percentage over the last six years.

After the jump, we'll use the same method that Eric Tulsky used on Henrik Sedin to see how much of an impact Semin's had on his linemates shooting percentage over the last four years. We'll also look at what might be causing it and which players have benefited the most from having Semin on their wing.

With another season in the books and some new prospects in the team's system, it's now time to update the Hurricanes "Top 25 Under 25" list. Lots of other blogs have done this and I always thought it was a good way to not only measure the progress of certain prospects, but to get a reading on the young talent in the organization, as well. The Hurricanes don't have a top ranked farm system by any means, but they do have a decent amount of young talent, some of which are already in the NHL, and it will be interesting to see how much progress they've made over the last calendar year.

Which players are trending in the right direction and who isn't? How well are some of these players developing? Are there any players who Canes fans should keep their radar on? How do these players compare to other NHL-ers? Is there anyone whose development is concerning at the moment? We'll answer those questions over the next month with this year's edition of the Hurricanes Top 25 Under 25.

Before we start analyzing these prospects, let's take a look at some players who were on the last list but missed the cut this year due to age, inexperience, performance or them not being with the organization anymore.

Part two of this data dump will be focused on zone exits, which are still a growing development in hockey metrics. The ability to exit the defensive zone cleanly is something that's often discussed in hockey, but it hasn't been explored much in the world of advanced statistics. The most commonly used stats like Corsi & Fenwick all deal with a team's ability to keep the puck in the offensive zone, but it's always tough to tell which players are the ones driving the bus. Since Corsi, Fenwick & other possession stats are all on-ice stats, it's possible that someone might look good by the numbers but could have their performance boosted by a strong linemate.

This is where looking at individual contributions like Zone entries, zone exits and scoring chances come in. I've already harped upon the importance of neutral zone play with my look at entries, but exits are also very important. If you've watched any hockey game, then you've probably notice some teams struggle to control play because they simply can not move the puck out of their own zone. This is especially true of defensemen, who are trusted to handle the puck in their own zone a lot more than anyone else.

Having players who can skate, handle and move the puck is very important in today's game because if your team has trouble exiting the zone, then they're likely going to get crushed on the shot clock and put a ton of pressure on their goaltenders. I'm no expert, but that strategy isn't going to win you a lot of games, which is why having guys who can get the puck out of the zone is very important. It's why I begun tracking zone exits for Hurricanes games last year and why other bloggers have done the same thing.

The only issue with zone exits is that they are just one part of the equation and not enough games have been tracked to show if they correlate with possession or anything significant. It's a very time consuming process that has to be done manually, so it will probably take time before we figure out how important zone exits really are. However, I do believe there is some value that can be found in this because, as I mentioned earlier, guys who can move the puck out of the zone are a factor in driving the play forward & controlling possession.

I'll be taking a closer look at this in the coming weeks, but I'll have the data from this year's playoffs posted below for those who are interested.

If you've been keeping up with this blog or following me on Twitter over the last few months, then you probably know that I've been doing some extensive data tracking from this year's NHL playoffs. I've been posting scoring chances periodically throughout the playoffs but in addition to that, I have also been tracking zone entries and zone exits. My analysis & findings on those will be posted at a later date, but just because I like you guys, I'll have all of the raw data posted here for anyone who wants to see it.

Putting all of the data into one post might be a little overwhelming, so I'm going to break things down into different sections to make things a little easier to read. I'll start off by posting the total zone entry & zone exit numbers for every team and follow it up with the numbers from each series to get more of an individual breakdown. This post will be focused on zone entries.

For those who are new to zone entries, this post from NHL Numbers does a good job of explaining them and their significance. I have also discussed the importance of zone entries in a few previous posts but the Cliff Notes version can be summed up like this. More offense is generated at even strength off entries which are done with possession of the puck, meaning the attacking team gains the opposing blue-line via carry-in or pass rather than simply getting the puck deep. Teams who are able to do this more often than their opponents generally win the territorial battle and have better underlying numbers, which leads to success in the big picture. 

The playoffs, however, brought some interesting observations when it came to how often teams resorted to dump-and-chase. Out of 16 playoff teams, only three of them had control on over 50% of their 5v5 zone entries during the post-season, which sort of surprised me because a few of them were ones who are considered good possession teams. This likely the result of teams playing the same opponents over a small sample size, but how often teams were reverting to dump-and-chase in the playoffs surprised me a little. I'll have more analysis here at a later date. 

Follow the jump for a look at the raw data.

Waiting out the free agent market has its share of perks and drawbacks. On one hand, this was a weak free agent class and the Hurricanes managed to avoid committing long-term money to a mediocre player, something a lot of teams ended up doing. On the other hand, they do still have some needs to address and with the free agent pickings being slim, they may have to end up signing a less than ideal candidate to round out their top-nine. This isn't the worst thing in the world because the most the Hurricanes are looking for in free agency now is depth and that can always be found. Which players left in the free agent class are the best fit for Carolina, though?

This is difficult to say because Carolina can really go either way with their bottom-six. They lacked depth scoring late year, so adding a player who can chip in 10-15 goals in a third-line role would make sense. However, if they want a more offensive player, they can also turn to someone like Zac Dalpe to play this kind of role instead. It would be the cheaper option and a nice way to help ease in some of the team's younger talent. Adding a proven goal-scorer wouldn't be a bad option, though. 

The other route the Hurricanes can go here is adding a bottom-six player to kill penalties or play a checking role at even strength. If they want that, then there are always plenty of free agents available at a reasonable cost. That being said, they can also promote someone from within to fill this role for less money too. With the team being low on cap space, that may not be a bad way to go. There is always the desire to add a "proven" talent, though and it's easy to see the argument for it. 

With the Hurricanes needing to upgrade from last, you generally want to add someone who you know can succeed in this role rather than place faith in unproven talent. Some fans might argue that taking a roster spot away from a younger player is a bad idea, but adding a proven player for $1-2 mil. a year isn't going to sink the Hurricanes right now. If they were to sign someone to take over Chad LaRose's role from the last few years, then making room for a couple younger players shouldn't be that difficult, especially if whoever they sign is an upgrade over him.

Who would be the best fit for Carolina, though? I've heard a few names thrown around and most of them are "veteran" players or those who bring a lot of qualities but not much when it comes to on-ice performance. Adding a "gritty" player or someone who provides leadership only means so much if he is at the end of his career or doesn't provide much outside of that. This is why I hate looking at intangibles when it comes to signing free agents or trading for a player. When it comes down to it, I want to add players who help make my team as best as possible, so "character" and "locker room presence" are two of the last things on my mind.

Carolina fans were faced with a similar situation last year when the team was considering signing Alexander Semin. He was easily the best free agent on the market, but there were a lot of people who were against signing him because of his "character issues." If you put those aside, he would be a player that most fans would want to sign in a heartbeat and to help illustrate that point, I compared him to a couple of other free agents without mentioning their names. It was clear that Semin was the best option out there and fit the Hurricanes needs the best. Thankfully, the Canes took a chance on him and they ended up getting the most for their money to say the very least.

Finding the best fit of this year's free agency class is a little tougher, though. There are a lot of good players still available, but how many of them would be what Carolina is looking for? Again, I've heard a few names thrown around and most of them are only talked about for their intangible qualities rather than what they can bring to the team. To see which players best fit the Hurricanes needs, we'll have to look at them anonymously just like we did with Semin last year.

If you were following any of the Hurricanes development camp, then chances are you've heard a lot about Sergey Tolchinsky. He was invited to camp as an undrafted player and has really caught the attention of a lot of people. He was easily the best skater during the morning practices, showed a very creative skillset in shootout drills and was the best player on the ice during the mini-scirmmage yesterday. He is a small player at only 5'8", but his size becomes an after-thought when you watch him play because his talent is hard to argue with. Most Hurricanes fans have only known about him for a few days, but he has already won over a lot of them and has also caught the eye of the coaching staff & the front office.

As an undrafted player from the OHL, he is eligible to play in the NHL next season and the Hurricanes can offer him a contract if they want to. With the team in need of prospect depth, signing him seems like a no-brainer because of how much he stood out in camp. Adding him to their system almost makes too much sense when you think about it. The Canes had only four draft picks this year, need prospect depth and currently have first priority to sign a talented young player. It's tough to see the downside in that even if Tolchinsky never plays in the NHL because the Hurricanes wouldn't be risking that much. The only thing standing in the Hurricanes way is deciding whether or not they want to give a contract to a player who they haven't seen much of.

It's understandable that they might be reluctant to do this because while Tolchinsky has been impressive this past week, gaining his rights would mean signing him to a three-year entry level deal. This also means paying him a signing bonus up front and adding another contract to the team's reserve. It could also lead to the Canes having to move a player for next to nothing somewhere down the line if they get near the 50-man contract limit which, of course, is a bad thing. I'm sure the Hurricanes management would love to add him, but a week of drills & one mini-scrimmage might not be enough for the team to committ years & money to a player who they've known for a brief period of time.

The New York Rangers went through a similar process when Tolchinsky was in their development camp a few weeks ago. They chose not to sign him, but invited him to play for them in the Traverse City tournament in a couple weeks. This will give the coaches & management an extended look on Tolchinsky before they lock themselves into anything. That is, unless the Hurricanes choose to sign him between now and Traverse. Because he was most recently in Carolina's camp, the Canes currently have first priority to sign him and that would make his agreement with the Rangers null & void.

The Canes do have a little more flexibility than the Rangers when it comes to adding contract, though. As of right now, Carolina currently has 43 contracts on the books with only one RFA left to sign in Zach Boychuk. So unless Jim Rutherford has plans to sign a few more players, adding Tolchinsky wouldn't put them in that much of a bind. At least not compared to the Rangers, who currently have 45 players under contract and three RFAs to re-sign, two of them being important players in Derek Stepan & Mats Zuccarello. Given that, it's easy to see why the Rangers would want to get a longer look at Tolchinsky before offering him a contract. The Hurricanes, on the other hand, have a little more breathing room.

Still, Carolina will need to act quickly here since Tolchinksy has already agreed to join the Rangers in Traverse City and could sign with another team by this time next year. He is also eligible to re-enter the draft and from the sound of things, he will be a lot higher on team's draft boards this time around. Adding him now would give the Hurricanes a chance to bolster their farm system without even using a draft pick. 

Basing your decisions off a small sample size is generally a bad idea, but Tolchinsky does have a lot of potential. His talent is undeniable and he scored at a high rate for the minutes he played according to those who watched him in the OHL. Giving a contract to an unproven player is risky, but a player with Tolchinsky's talent & upside is hard to pass on.

After a week of watching the prospects go through drills, the Hurricanes held a mini-scrimmage and skills competition today to end development camp. The practices were a good way to get to know what some of the player's strengths were, but actually getting to see them play a game will give us a better idea of how they can perform in higher pressure situation, even if this was only a mini-scrimmage. It was a lot of fun to watch and gave fans a glimpse at some players who may don a Hurricanes sweater in a few years. The scrimmage featured two full periods of play, one five-on-five and the other four-on-four, followed by some power play work and a shootout at the end.

The Red Team ended up getting the win in the shootout with winger Sergey Tolchinsky scoring two goals and defenseman Trevor Carrick getting the game tying goal late in the "second period." Victor Rask and Brendan Woods would score in the shoot out to clinch the victory. Scoring for the White Team were defenseman Ryan Murphy, forward Brent Pedersen and camp invitee Brandon Shea. The Red Team carried the play for most of the five-on-five session and forced goaltender Collin Olson to do a lot of work early on. I was actually surprised that the first period ended up tied with how much the Red Team had possession.

Tolchinksy definitely stole the show, as both goals he scored were very slick and gave fans a great look at the type of skill he possesses. As an undrafted player, there wasn't a lot expected from him, but the 18-year-old has really made a great impression for himself this past week. He has been one of the best skaters in camp and has really dazzled with his moves in the shootout drills. Seeing what he can do in a game-like setting really put his talent on full display, as he was arguably the most impressive player on the ice.

He always seemed to have the puck and was able to use his agility to evade defenders or make good passes when playing in his own zone. He also found the back of the net twice, both coming off quick wrist shots and the second one coming after he stickhandled his way through a couple of defenders to get himself in a position to score. He's a small player at only 5'8" and 160 lbs., so that poses some questions about his future in the NHL but it's pretty clear that this kid can play. Tolchinsky's made a great impression in this camp and would be a nice addition to the Canes prospect pool if they choose to sign him.

Tolchinksy would get "first star" honors here, but there were a few other notables during the scrimmage today. Here are some players that stood out to me:

- Ryan Murphy is quite a thrill to watch when he is on his game. It really looks like he has gotten smarter with controlling his speed and knowing what to do with the puck instead of opting for a risky play. When he was put under pressure, he skated himself out of trouble or reversed the play to his defense partner instead of making a bad play with the puck. He also jumped into the play a lot, as expected, and was able to score a goal and set up Pedersen for another. He was everywhere during the four-on-four drill and looks like he can be a really dynamic player. The only thing that worries me is that he had trouble playing away from the puck and fighting off opposing forwards. He did break up a couple of passes in front of the net, though and that was nice to see.

- Danny Biega was also very impressive during the four-on-four session. He jumped into the play quite a bit and was able to create a few chances from that. His passing also looked excellent, as he made a lot of great passes out of his own zone and also set up a chance during the five-on-five session with a good looking slap pass. Biega's a mobile defenseman and is coming off a down offensive year at Harvard, so it was good to see him show off some of his skillset.

- Victor Rask scored the game-winner in the shootout for the Red team and he had a pretty impressive game outside of that. He looked good with the puck and made a few decent end-to-end rushes to create chances. He nearly got an assist on a two-on-one with Tolchinsky, but Millen made a great save to deny it.. Rask also made a few good plays on the back-check and was usually the first guy to go to the net to crash for a rebound or cause traffic. Rask also had a golden chance that was turned away by Millen during the power play drill.

- Other camp invitee, Brandon Shea also scored a goal and it came off a great individual effort. He was able to force a turnover at the blue-line by defenseman Austin Levi and take the puck the other way for a breakaway goal. Pretty impressive effort from him and he made a few other nice plays to help get his name out there. He doesn't have that much of a track record as an undrafted player, but I'm sure some will take notice of him now.

- Erik Karlsson showed an impressive two-way game today. He was able to get his stick on a lot of passes in the defensive zone and take the puck away from opposing forwards. He also showed some nice offensive skills and patience by making a toe-drag move to create a chance during the five-on-five session. Karlsson needs to get a little bigger and is a few years away, but it was nice to finally see him play live since there isn't much data on him available. He seems like a nice prospect.

- Earlier in the week, I noticed that Rasmus Rissanen's skating improved and he showed that again today by jumping into the play almost every chance he got. He handled the puck a lot, went end-to-end a few times and had a lot of controlled zone entries. It was interesting to see because he is more of a stay-at-home defenseman, but development camp is all about prospects improving certain parts of their games. It looks like Rissanen is using this time to make himself more of a mobile player than he was in year's past, which I'm sure is fine with the Hurricanes and the Checkers.

- Justin Shugg didn't catch my eye too much, but he did force a turnover to help set-up Murphy's goal. Great work by him.

- Brock McGinn loves to hit. A lot. This is supposed to be more of a light-paced game, but he still was very aggressive along the boards and on the forecheck. That's just the way he plays, though and that style is going to be welcomed on the Hurricanes. He's also a very effective passer & puck-handler, as he didn't have much of an issue with carrying the puck into the zone & finding open forwards. McGinn's a few years away, but Hurricanes fans are going to love him when he is ready for the NHL.

- Aside from his turnover that led to Shea's goal, Austin Levi looked pretty solid. He was able to take away space from opposing forwards by playing the body and closing gaps well. He was also very good in the penalty kill sessions and even got some time on the power play. It'll be interesting to see where heends up next year since Charlotte's going to have a crowded blue-line.

Seeing how this was a mini-scrimmage against other kids, there is only so much you can take from this, but it did give us a look at what some of these prospects are all about. This was my first time getting to see a few of these players and it gave me a better idea of what their strengths are and where they're at in their development. Plus, I'm sure this camp was a great learning experience for them. It certainly was a great experience for the fans, who got a look at some of the team's future and what they have to look forward to in the next few years. Big thanks goes to the Carolina Hurricanes for streaming this scrimmage along with the rest of development camp this week. It's been a real treat to watch.

After a few days of teasing, the NHL finally released their schedule for the upcoming 2013-14 season. This will be the Hurricanes first year in the "Metropolitan Conference" featuring all five teams of the former Atlantic Division along with the Columbus Blue Jackets and the Washington Capitals. The Hurricanes will play each of these teams four times next year with one extra game against Columbus and Washington respectively. Playing in this division is going to be a test for the Hurricanes because their new "rivals" are a step above what they had to deal with in the Southeast Division in previous seasons. I don't think the outlook is that bad because some of these teams are going through rebuilds, but Carolina's head-to-head play against the Flyers, Rangers and Caps will need to improve for them to stay competitive in this division.

If the increase in competition wasn't enough, Carolina will also have 20 back-to-back games and all but two of them involve are on the road. Success in head-to-head games varies on a yearly basis, but dealing with them can be a challenge, especially to teams with a lot of young players. Six of their back-to-back games come after the Olympic break, where the NHL will be playing somewhat of a crammed schedule.

The one area where Carolina does get a break is that they don't have a lot of long road trips next season, as the mix of home and away games is fairly balanced. Their longest road trips only last four games, one of which coming in late October and the other in early-December where they'll be going to the west coast. They also have a five-game home stand in early November and a four-gamer right before the Olympic break, so those are two parts of the schedule to take advantage of. The schedule also features a healthy dose of afternoon games, which is interesting and a change from year's past.

As for ex-Hurricanes making their triumphant returns, Brandon Sutter & Jussi Jokinen's Penguins will be visiting PNC Arena for the first time on October 28th, Joe Corvo's Ottawa Senators will be in town on November 24th, Dan Ellis and the Dallas Stars will be here on April 3rd and Jamie McBain will make his Buffalo Sabres debut at PNC Arena on March 13th. Let me know if I missed anyone.

All in all, a challenging schedule for the Hurricanes with all of the back-to-backs, but they'll just have to make the most of it like everyone else.

The role of luck in hockey is somewhat controversial among hockey fans and analysts. Most people know that you need to be both lucky and good to win a championship, but the subject of luck often gets brushed aside when evaluating a team's performance over a full season. Think of how many times you've seen a shot go off the post or saw a golden scoring chance taken away by a great save or a defender clearing a rebound at the last millisecond. Also think about how many goals you've seen come off a weird bounce, a deflection or some other strange occurrence. This is puck luck in action and it has a direct impact on the outcome of a game and, over the long run, where a team finishes in the standings.

Whenever the word "luck" is mentioned in sports, the usual response is that the bounces "even out" over the course of the season. It doesn't always work like this, though. Just as the 2013 Carolina Hurricanes, whose season can be defined as one where nothing went right. They were plagued by injuries, had stretches where they couldn't buy a goal and received some simply wretched goaltending in the last 20 games or so. Luck shouldn't' be used as an "excuse" for the Canes missing the playoffs for the fourth straight season, but when you look at how almost everything that was out of their control go against them, it's fair to say that it contributed to them finishing 26th in the NHL.  

Rob Vollman of Hockey Prospectus recently posted a chart looking at certain variables to show how "lucky" each team was last season. This takes into account how many significant players were lost to injury, their shooting and save percentage, their special teams efficiency rates along with their success in one goal & overtime games. I'm a little skeptical of special teams being a factor of luck but the other four are definitely factors that are subject ot change from year-to-year. Based on these principles, Carolina was the fourth "unluckiest" team in the league last season, which isn't surprising.

As I mentioned earlier, the team was destroyed by injuries. They used over 30 players, were without their starting goaltender for half of the season and had at least six defensemen go on the shelf during parts of the year. Injuries are part of the game, though and teams like Detroit, Ottawa & Vancouver made the playoffs despite having worse injury problems than Carolina. Why is this? They had better depth and more luck when it came to goal-scoring and save percentage. It's true that injuries hurt these teams, but they all received some of the best goaltending in the league while Carolina's was sub-par and on top of that, they had trouble scoring for most of the second half of the year. That ultimately ended up being the difference maker.

The question is will the Hurricanes be a little more fortunate next season? You can't predict injuries or how close games will turn out and some argue that the same can be said for a player's shooting & save percentage. Outside of their first line, most of the Hurricanes forwards had trouble scoring and this largely contributed to their second half slump. Is it possible that this might change next season? We'll answer those questions after the jump.

Today's development camp practice featured more powerskating with instructor Kim Muir, only this time they were running some rather unorthodox drills. One of which involved the players skating down the ice while one of their teammates grabbed on to the back of their jerseys. I guess this was to test their strength because I had never seen anything like that before. Victor Rask had the unfortunate task of dragging big Brody Sutter down the rink and he actually managed to do it without much of a problem.

They also did a few other drills with Muir to work on the player's edge work and their lateral movement, similar to the drills done yesterday but with a little more more on stopping & turning. Most of the players seem to have no issue with these drills and I didn't notice anyone lose an edge or struggle to make turns and pivots. The Canes seem to have focused on drafting good skaters in recent years, so this wasn't too much of a surprise but it was encouraging to see some of the prospects excel at these drills. The players also worked on a few passing drills earlier in the session and I thought both Keegan Lowe & Danny Biega looked very good there. Biega's been one of the main standouts of this camp for me as he seems to be above the rest of the group in a lot of different areas, skating and passing being two of the main things.

In addition to that, here are a couple of other observations from today's practice:

- This was my first time getting a look at Beau Schmitz and I liked what I saw. He's older than some of the other players here, but he seems to know the game well and has a lot of the fundamentals worked out. He skates and handles the puck well and played great during his brief time in Charlotte last year, so I'm intrigued about his future.

- Today was also the first time I got to see Carolina's 7th round pick from this year, Tyler Ganly. Scouting reports mentioned that he made a lot of improvements to his game last year but still needs to work in his skating. Going by what I saw today, Ganly has a good burst but was a little more careful when he had to handle the puck. Probably a sign that he is still learning how to control his speed and handle the puck. He is only 18, so he has plenty of time to learn. 

- There was another where the players had to skip down the ice and watching Brody Sutter keep his balance while doing this was both impressive and entertaining.

- Ryan Murphy was obviously one of the quicker players during these drills but I think everyone knows that skating is one of his strongest assets.

Once again, I'd like to thank the Hurricanes and Canes Vision for streaming these practices to give the fans a look at some of the team's prospects. Watching these practices and getting an inside look at the team's future has been interesting and a lot of fun.