You may have not seen a lot of stat-based posts from me this preseason because this is usually the time of the year where I rely on the eye-test more than anything else. The reason for this is because the results are essentially meaningless and I tend to have my focus set on a few players rather the team in general. Another reason is because video footage and in-depth stats have been hard to come by this preseason with the Canes having only a couple televised games and it's tough to make judgments when you haven't seen every game.

The good news is that we can take a closer look at the team's statistical performance during the preseason. Thanks to Derek  from Fear The Fin, we can see how each player on the Hurricanes performed through on-ice shot differential (aka Corsi) and compare it to how they were utilized at even strength (zone start differential). This obviously doesn't tell everything about a player since it's just one stat, but it does give us a good idea of where the puck was whenever they were on the ice during even strength play. Good players are generally ones who can keep the play moving forward and force the other team to defend while playing at evens, which means they can consistently outshoot their opponents at even strength.

Using data NHL.com's play-by-play sheets, we can see who was the best at doing this for the Hurricanes during the pre-season.* We will get to those numbers after the jump.

*The 6-0 loss to Montreal was not tracked because it was not played in an NHL area. Thus, no play-by-play sheet was available for that game.

The Hurricanes will play their final preseason game tonight and ultimately, there really isn't a lot riding on it because the opening night roster is going to look completely different from what we'll see tonight. Regulars such as Alexander Semin, Jeff Skinner and Tim Gleason will be out of the lineup and the Hurricanes top line will feature Radek Dvorak playing right wing. Injuries remain a concern, but it's doubtful that the Hurricanes opening night lineup is similar to what we'll be seeing tonight so there's no point in getting hung up on the results of this game.

However, this is a big night for players who are on the cusp of making the roster, as it is their final chance to make a good impression on the coaching staff before the games start to count. Head coach Kirk Muller said after the embarrassing 6-0 loss to Montreal last Friday that the "door was closing" for some players. Now that a week and a round of roster cuts has passed since then, have there been any changes? Somewhat. Most of the players who were longshots to make the team are now in Charlotte, but a lot of the fringe guys are still with the Hurricanes and have one more game to earn one of the final opening night roster spots.

There are a couple of players who stock has risen within the last week (Nathan Gerbe, Riley Nash, Ryan Murphy, Brett Bellemore), but the Hurricanes still have room for a couple more players and possibly more if the injuries to Gleason & Ruutu prevent them from playing in the opener. This is bad news for the Hurricanes in the long-term, but it also provides an opportunity for the younger players to thrive in a bigger role, something a lot of people have been calling for years now. Unfortunately, some of these younger players haven't risen to the occasion and tonight could be their last chance to make a lasting impression with the coaching staff.

This doesn't apply to all of the fringe guys because there have been some who have impressed in camp and the preseason, but others have underperformed and they will need to make the most of their ice time tonight if they want to earn a roster spot. As it stands now, the Hurricanes probably have 2-3 forward spots open and one or two spots on defense depending on who is healthy in another week or so. Who has the best chance of earning these spots and playing in Raleigh come next Friday?

After the jump, we'll look at the updated projected roster and which players will need to have a good showing tonight against Buffalo.

The common narrative on the Hurricanes demise last season was that the team fell off the rails once goaltender Cam Ward got hurt, and it's easy to see why someone might come to that conclusion. The team went 7-17-3 once their starting netminder went down and gave nearly four goals per game during that stretch. I don't completely buy that theory because the team had a lot of other problems unrelated to goaltending at the time (no depth scoring, bad defense, injuries) and they probably would have finished outside the playoffs even if Ward was healthy.

Still, the common belief is that the Canes will only go as far as Ward takes them and him being healthy should lead to some better results. That is, until the preseason started and Ward gave up 11 goals in his first two games played. Now you have a lot of fans panicking about Carolina's goaltending situation and calling for Anton Khudobin to start on opening night. Ward has been prone to slow starts before, so what he is going through now isn't anything new, but sub-par goaltending is what sunk the Canes it he second half of last seasons, so they will need Ward to be in top form this year. 

What is "top form" for Ward, though? Some might have the perception that he is an elite goatlender because he has been a workhorse for the better half of the last decade, but the numbers suggest otherwise. Ward's a very good goalie, but the Hurricanes might run into problems if they are expecting him to stand on his head this year and it's not just because he is coming off an injury.

If you follow Raleigh News & Observer writer Chip Alexander on Twitter, then you have probably seen the Hurricanes forward line combinations during training camp and said to yourself "what in the world is this team doing?" The Hurricanes top-six was thought to be set in stone but injuries to Alexander Semin, Elias Lindholm and Tuomo Ruutu have put a wrench in the team's plans. Now, we are seeing players like Radek Dvorak & Nathan Gerbe in the top-six and line combinations that look completely random. 

Preseason is often the time for experimentation and the Hurricanes aren't the only team that's thought outside the box, but I'm sure there are a lot of fans who are puzzled when trying to figure out what the Canes forward lines will look like come opening night. There's a chance that things will revert back to normal if Semin, Ruutu and/or Lindholm are ready to go by then, but Muller has been experimenting even when these players were in the lineup, so we are bound to see some interesting lines no matter what. 

Forward depth was a problem for the Hurricanes last season and judging from the lines at training camp, it could still be a problem this year. There is always a chance that one of their younger players steps into a bigger role and makes the situation better, but the Hurricanes are going to be placing a lot of faith in unproven talent, especially on their bottom-two lines. Breaking players into a smaller role isn't the worst thing to do but if an injury to a top player occurs, it throws everything out of proportion by forcing them to do more than they are expected to. The Hurricanes have already endured three injuries and as a result, the lines look like a mess and the opening night lineup is subject to change at any minute.

The one thing the Canes do have going for them is that they are strong down the middle and they have a few guys who can play multiple positions, which will hopefully come in handy while they adjust to injuries and whatnot throughout the year. Muller already mentioned that he is open to using Elias Lindholm, a natural center, at right wing and we've seen him use Ruutu as both a left & right wing before in the past. The question is where will they fit in the lineup and how can that help the Hurricanes forward depth issues?

To illustrate this point, I'm borrowing an idea from Japers Rink where I ranked each player by position and presented them in the form of a Venn diagram and showed the forwards who can play multiple positions in the overlap category. Before we dive into things, I just want to clarify that I'm doing this to give a full look at the Canes options and am not trying to predict the team's opening night lineup or forward lines that they might use, because both of those are up in the air right now.

Among all the off-season discussions concerning the Hurricanes, Tuomo Ruutu has been somewhat of an afterthought. With all of the hype surrounding the defense, Jeff Skinner and the bottom-six, it's easy to see why but Ruutu's still an important part of this team and the Hurricanes are going to need him to be healthy in order to be competitive in this new division. Ruutu's often thought of as a physical player and while he is effective in that department, he also possesses a lot of skill and has produced at a top-six level for most of his career. His physical presence is important, but I think the Hurricanes missed his offense more than anything last year and it will be great to have him back in the lineup.

The question is whether or not Ruutu can be effective as he once was. He is only 30 years old, but is coming off two hip surguries within the past year. Couple that with the fact that forwards tend to see their production drop as they get older and it's fair to expect Ruutu to take a step back next season. Although, there were no indications of him slowing down when he got on the ice last year. Hip surgery limited Ruutu to only 17 games last year but he was very, very good in those games, recording nine points and scoring at a top-six rate yet again. He was especially good towards the end of the season once he began to get more ice-time and the Hurricanes will hope they can get that Ruutu for at least 50-60 games this year. 

Assuming that Ruutu stays healthy, can he produce at the levels the Hurricanes are used to seeing from him? We already know how important Ruutu is to the team's scoring depth, but how many points should the Hurricanes expect from him this year? We'll explore that issue and more after the jump.

Now that one week of pre-season games are in the books, we should have somewhat of an idea of where some of their fringe players are. They ran the risk of inviting a lot of young/unproven players to camp and with at least 6-7 open roster spots, all of them were going to get their fair shot over the past week. I went over some of the position battles that we could be seeing over the past week and after four games, it is still tough to figure out which players will stay on the big club once the seasons starts in two weeks.

There is a strong chance that we won't know the opening day lineup until after next week when the pre-season concludes, but we should see a few cuts today and there are likely going to be a few interesting names on the chopping block. The Hurricanes pre-season didn't exactly show much promise, as the team dropped three of their first four games including a 6-0 loss to Montreal and head coach Kirk Muller stated that the "door is closing" for a few of the younger players.

The results in pre-season typically don't matter, but there was some expressed disappointment from Muller about the performance and execution of some of the younger players and I'm willing to bet that a couple of them might be in Charlotte by Monday morning. Muller's given plenty of chances to the young guys in camp this year by using them in top-six roles and on special teams. so it will be interesting to see who ends up staying in Raleigh after this week.

We already know that Nicolas Blanchard, Zach Boychuk, Justin Peters, Michal Jordan, Jared Staal and Aaron Palushaj are heading to Charlotte, but who else could be next on the cut list?

Fixing the defense has been the focal point of the Hurricanes off-season and GM Jim Rutherford has done a decent job to address Carolina's needs by acquiring both Andrej Sekera and Ron Hainsey. The defense still isn't anywhere close to being perfect, but adding Hainsey makes them a lot better than they were initially and the Canes have a relatively solid top-four now. With that ironed out, all that is left to do is buld solid depth on the third pairing, which will be more important than some think.

Last season, the Hurricanes entered the year with a defense that was over-populated with third-pairing guys and relied on their top-pairing to carry the load for basically the entire season. This led to a lot of problems when the injuries hit, as they ended up having guys who would be 4th or 5th defensemen on a contending play top-pairing minutes for about half of the season. This is why it is important to find value when it comes to building depth defense, whether it's through young players or finding a good free agent who may have been passed over by other teams.

Do the Hurricanes have this kind of depth right now, though? If Pitkanen were healthy, I would say so but obviously that isn't the case. They have plenty of guys who can play a third pairing role if needed, but they might need more than that if the injury bug infects them again. As of right now, the Canes have five healthy defenseman on the roster with Faulk, Gleason, Sekera and one or Harrison or Hainsey playing top-four minutes. With Rutherford saying that the team can carry up to eight defensemen, it looks like the Canes are going to put a lot of faith in their younger players to round out their defense depth. With a high-end player like Ryan Murphy in the system, this could turn out to be a nice experiment but it could also turn out poorly if some of these players don't work out. Being able to get all eight of them in the lineup on a consistent basis could prove to a problem too, especially during the regular season.

I don't know if we'll see the team carry eight defenseman, but they do have a lot in camp right now and I expect that at least two of them will make the team to join the five listed earlier. Who is the best fit for this role, though? Ideally, the Hurricanes are going to be looking someone with a right-hand shot who can play outside the third pairing if needed. The ability to work the power play or kill penalties is also a plus, although not completely necessary. When looking at the player's in camp, they have a couple of guys who might be able to do this.

One bright spot in a mostly forgettable year for the Hurricanes was the emergence of Jiri Tlusty. The former first round pick of the Toronto Maple Leafs had a breakout season leading the team in goals with 23 and was a perfect fit on the first line with Eric Staal and Alexander Semin. Tlusty only turned 25 last March and was a high scorer in the AHL, so it's possible that what we saw last year was a natural part of his development, but there is also a chance that it was a fluke.

Looking at Tlusty's shooting percentage, it's pretty easy to see why most are expecting him to regress this season, because there is little chance that he can shoot at 19.7% in a full year. Add in the fact that he also scored three empty net goals and I think him coming back down to Earth is inevitable. How much will he fall off, though? I don't think anyone with a level head on their shoulders is going to expect Tlusty to score at a 40+ goal pace again this year, but can he still be an effective offensive player? I don't know if he is a first-liner, but there is some evidence suggesting that Tlusty is a good goal-scorer and doesn't need elite linemates to produce.

When I looked at Tlusty's numbers away from Eric Staal & Alexander Semin over the last two years, I found out that he was able to score at a decent rate at even strength with different linemates. His ability to drive the play also wasn't hampered by playing with different linemates either, so perhaps he wasn't just a product of strong linemates. Tlusty did see his scoring rate decline, but he was still producing at a decent rate at even strength away from Staal & Semin, so he definitely wasn't just a passenger.

Whether or not Tlusty was a passenger on the first line shouldn't be an issue for next year, though because he is probably going to be with Staal & Semin for the majority of the season. The real question at hand is how much will Tlusty produce without the aid of an incredibly high shooting percentage. With him entering a contract season, how he performs next year will be critical and will should play a role in how much he makes in free agency. The Hurricanes will have more leverage if last year was just him shooting the lights out, so it will be interesting to see how this situation is handled going forward, especially when there's a good chance that Tlusty's goal total will drop while his game improves in other areas.

How much is Tlusty worth now and what kind of numbers should we expect from him this year? We'll explore that after the jump.

Ask several fans about how Jordan Staal's debut season with the Carolina Hurricanes and you'll probably get a wide range of answers. Although, most were underwhelmed with what he brought to the team and were expecting him to be more of a difference maker. Jordan's 10 goals and 31 points over 48 games aren't terrible for a second line center, but many were expecting more from Staal after how much the Hurricanes gave up for him at the 2012 draft.

Jordan's had a reputation of being someone with a lot of untapped potential because of the role he played in Pittsburgh and while I think he is capable of producing more offense, I'm not sure if he is the star player that everyone hoped he would be. That said, Staal is capable of being a difference maker but he does it in ways that don't show up on the scoresheet. There were a lot of games last season where I thought Jordan was the team's best forward and he didn't record a point in a few of them.

While Staal has always been a solid point-producer relative to his ice time, a lot of his value comes from his all-around game, which is what we saw last season. Jordan's line typically drew most of the tough matchups last season, freeing up Eric's line to play against easier assignments at home and we all know how that turned out. This is similar to the role that Brandon Sutter played before, but the difference between the two players is that Staal is capable of beating other team's top lines instead of just simply holding them in check. Meaning that he can keep them pinned into their own zone and produce offense against them.

His scoring line and plus-minus suggests that he wasn't doing that, but a deeper look at his performance tells another story. Jordan was one of the team's best forwards at winning the territorial battle at even strength, meaning that he was always forcing other teams to defend whenever he was on the ice. If he can continue to that next year, he should have better numbers and be worth his $6 mil. cap hit. Players like him only come around so often.

The question is, how much offense can Staal produce in a given year if he plays top-six minutes? We'll set some expectations for him after the jump.

Much like the rest of their bottom-six, the Hurricanes don't really have a set plan for their fourth line just yet and we probably won't know who will be on it until the team gets a few games under their belt. With so many players on two-way deals in camp, the only way to find out who sticks is through a process of trial and error, so the Hurricanes will likely go with this approach when it comes to building their third and fourth lines. I went over some possibilities for the third line last week, but who could we see on the fourth line?

Judging from the lines from tonight's pre-season game, Kirk Muller is giving a lot of hard-nosed players a look in camp, so we could see the Canes deploy a big fourth line to start the year. While there's nothing wrong with adding size and toughness, I would abject to it if it comes at the expense of a better player being waived or sent back to the minors. The goal is to dress the best lineup possible and using a roster spot on an enforcer or a player who doesn't provide much in terms of hockey ability wouldn't be a wise move, especially for a team with scoring depth issues like the Canes.

That said, any approach is probably better than last year because the Hurricanes got absolutely no offense from their fourth line then. They produced one goal on the entire season and were generally held to 5-7 minutes at even strength because they couldn't be trusted with any more minutes. This was usually the case when Tim Wallace or Kevin Westgarth were playing. The Hurricanes will have to get more out of their fourth line this year and it all starts with finding someone to replace Tim Brent as the center of this unit.

Brent was considered a good teammate and a nice asset on the power play, but what he did at even strength was replaceable and the only thing that kept him from being a liability was that he gave the Canes a huge edge in the territorial game last year. It didn't result in too much because he was playing 5-8 minutes a game against other team's fourth lines, but getting a territorial advantage is never a bad thing. Ideally, the Hurricanes will need to find someone who can score and drive the play forward as their new fourth line center and they have a few players who can potentially do that. Both Riley Nash & Jeremy Welsh could be called upon to do this, as they fit the mold of a fourth line center well, but who else on the roster could be in running?