Realistic Expectations: Jeff Skinner edition

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

Outside of the team's defensive rebuild, most of the talk concerning the Hurricanes this off-season has been about their young star Jeff Skinner. Although, a lot of it hasn't been very positive. Skinner is coming off the worst season of his brief career and unfortunately for him, it happened right after he signed a big six-year contract extension that will carry a cap hit north of $5 mil. per year. Between Skinner's concussion problems and his scoring numbers declining, some might view this deal as an albatross and one that the Hurricanes should consider trading before his value completely tanks. If only the rest of the world had such a pessimistic outlook on life.

That being said, it is true that Skinner didn't have a great season and he will need to rebound if Carolina plans to go anywhere in this new division next year. The Canes had little scoring outside of their first line last season and his slump along with Jordan Staal's were a big reason for that. 13 goals and 24 points in 44 games would be okay for some players, but Skinner is capable of doing so much more and the Hurricanes will need him to bounce back in a big way. 

The good news is that there are indications that Skinner is due for a rebound campaign and should get back to producing at the levels of his first two seasons. Skinner's point totals may have taken a tumble last year, but his game has developed well in other ways and it should lead to him posting some better numbers relatively soon. I've written about this on multiple occasions and after the jump, we will go over what some realistic expectations are for him next season.

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Training Camp Battles: 3rd Line Right Wing

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

The other day, we looked at the players competing for the third line left wing spot in camp. Today, we will be moving over to the right wing. What is expected out of this position is similar to the left wing so I'm going to keep the intro short. However, one thing that the Hurricanes probably want out of their right wing is versatility and the ability to play top-six minutes if needed. With Tuomo Ruutu starting the year on the left wing and Jeff Skinner having injury concerns, whoever ends up on the right wing may get bumped up to the second line sometime this year. This is what happened with Patrick Dwyer last year and Chad LaRose the year before.

Dwyer is returning but with LaRose gone, there could be some serious competition for the right wing spot on the third line. After the jump, we will go over which players in camp have the best shot of earning it.

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How will Alexander Semin's second year in Carolina go?

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

The Hurricanes one-year gamble on Alexander Semin turned out better than just about anyone could have expected. GM Jim Rutherford may have been a little reluctant to sign the "enigmatic" Russian winger, but he ended up getting his money's worth as Semin was a point-per-game player in his first year with the Canes. Not only that, but he played a solid game in all three zones and gave them another elite play-maker & scorer on their first line. Carolina's coaching staff used Semin in all situations and he responded by having one of the best seasons of his career and making Carolina's first line one of the most dangerous units in the NHL.

Semin was rewarded for this with a five-year contract extension and will be paid $7 mil. per season during that time. With Semin being in his late 20's, this deal has the potential of being bad value in the long-term, but offense is not cheap and replacing a player of Semin's caliber would have been very difficult. This is why I don't have much of a problem with the extension. The question is whether or not Semin can repeat what he did last year and give the Hurricanes elite-level production. 

He is certainly capable of doing so if you look at his past stats. Semin's had trouble staying healthy, but he has produced at very high rates over his career and some of those came with second line minutes in Washington. If Kirk Muller continues to use Semin in just about every situation possible, one would think that he could be a point-per-game player in a full season. Doing that over 82 games isn't easy, though and it's even more difficult for players in their late 20's to produce at such a high level. Semin is a special talent, though and he will get every opportunity to produce, so it is believable that he can have another big year and possibly lead the Hurricanes in points.

After the jump, we'll go over some realistic expectations for him in 2013-14.

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Training Camp Battles: 3rd Line Left Wingers

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

Continuing our look at what positions could be up for grabs during training camp, we will stay on the third line and look at which players will be battling for the two wing spots on the third line. In my post on the team's battle for the third line center, I mentioned that it's basically open season for all of the Hurricanes bottom-six and they still need to figure out what their entire third line looks like. With not many players being brought in through free agency, they have a lot of guys within the system competing for these spots and it will be interesting to see who is playing there come opening night.

The Canes faced a similar situation last season and their bottom-six ended up being composed of leftover players from the first two lines. They didn't have much of a "role" and the coaches constantly kept shuffling players in and out of the lineup as a result. One would think that it will be different this season because they have a full training camp to figure things out, but the Canes third line still looks uncertain right now. They at least have somewhat of an idea of who will center it (Lindholm or Nash), but it's tough to figure out who will end up playing on the wings.

There's been talk of the Canes using three "scoring" lines and dropping Jeff Skinner or Tuomo Ruutu down to the third line and while I'm not 100% against that approach, I think Skinner is a better fit on the second line with Ruutu and Jordan Staal. The coaches may not feel the same way, but the Canes aren't exactly blessed with a lot of top-six wings and I think it's best to use him on the second line for now. Assuming this happens, this leaves the Hurricanes with two spots up for grabs on the third line with about six players competing for it. We will take an individual look at the candidates for the left wing spot after the jump.

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What can we expect from Eric Staal this year?

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

With the season drawing closer and closer, it's about time we started looking at individual projections for the Hurricanes players and as usual, we will be starting with the captain, Eric Staal. Staal has been the Hurricanes leader in just about every statistical category since 2005 and is still only in his late-20's, so he should have plenty of good years ahead of him. It is fair to speculate how much longer he can be a top-line player because most player see their scoring numbers decline as they enter their 30's, but there shouldn't be much concern for Staal as far as next season goes.

Staal is considered one of the better play-makers in the league and he has scored at a 70+ point pace in eight consecutive seasons. Given that he was playing with less than ideal linemates in many of those years, some were not surprised to see him score at a 90-point pace after the Hurricanes added elite winger Alexander Semin last year. These two along with Jiri Tlusty formed one of the best first lines in the NHL and Staal was on-pace for his best season since 2005-06 where he recorded 100-points. This line was a threat to score whenever they were on the ice and were the most dangerous unit the Canes have had in years. Having these three return for another year will be huge, but can they repeat what they did last year?

We know that Tlusty will see his goal-scoring numbers go down and so will Semin's on-ice shooting percentage, but how much of an effect will it have on Staal? He also benefited from some lofty percentages and could see his numbers come back down to Earth, especially at even strength. There is some evidence which suggests that both him and Semin are good enough to maintain a high on-ice shooting percentage but can he have another 85+ point season or was last year just a flash in the pan? 

After the jump, we will look at what some reasonable expectations are for Captain Staal this year.

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Training Camp Battles: 3rd Line Center

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

This year's training camp feels a little different than other years because there are so many roster spots up for grabs and the Hurricanes invited more young guys to camp than usual. There are 44 skaters in camp this year and a good chunk of them are either rookies or guys who spend the majority of last season with the Charlotte Checkers. The Hurricanes are kind of forced to go with this approach because most of their off-season money was tied up in the Jordan Staal & Alexander Semin contract extensions, but it isn't the worst thing in the world either. At least as far as the forwards are concerned. 

There's bound to be some experimenting in training camp but as far as I am concerned, the top-six is pretty much set and the Canes just need to round out their bottom-six. Adding a veteran to help out would have been nice but between guys like Bowman, Dalpe, Nash, Rask and others, one would think that the Canes have enough players in their organization who can play adequately play bottom-six roles. There's also a decent chance that they'll get good value out of these players than overpaying thorugh free agency, especially when you have third liners getting five year deals on the open market. 

The only problem is that the Canes are going to be relying on a lot of unproven guys to fill out depth roles now and while it could turn out well, there is also a chance that it might blow up in their face if none of these players work out in the NHL. Not that they haven't put faith in the kids in year's past, but this is the first time I can remember virtually every bottom-six spot being up for grabs heading into camp and it will be interesting to see what the opening night roster looks like. I suspect there to be a lot of roster shuffling throughout the pre-season because just about everyone is going to get a shot on the third and fourth lines at some point.

Over the next few days, we are going to look at which positions will be up for grabs and who will be competing for it, starting today with the third line center spot. This position was question mark at camp last year and the team began the season by using Jussi Jokinen here until Riley Nash was called up and replaced him about mid-way through the season. Some expected Nash to stay as the third line pivot this year, but that all changed after the Canes took Elias Lindholm with their fifth overall selection in the draft. Now many are expecting him to be the third line center right out of camp, which is possible but there are still a lot of candidates for the third line center spot.

After the jump, we will look at each of them and their chances of suiting up for the Canes on opening night.

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All about Ron Hainsey

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

In the wake of the news about Joni Pitkanen, the Hurricanes announced they signed defenseman Ron Hainsey to a one-year deal worth $2 mil. This news shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone because the Hurricanes were going to make a move for a defenseman after the Pitkanen news was released and Hainsey was one of the best players left on the market. It's hard to call him a "replacement" for Pitkanen because he is a completely different player, but he is a guy who can play a lot of minutes and fills a need for this team both at even strength and on the penalty kill. 

When I compared Hainsey to Gilbert last week, I mentioned that signing Hainsey would be the "safe" move for the Hurricanes because he is more of a stay-at-home player and his performance in recent years has been steady. "Safe" is a good way to sum up his game, too because Hainsey's style of play isn't going to dazzle anyone but he is effective in his role. He can log big minutes at even strength, block shots, kill penalties and give you a solid performance every night. This is pretty much the same thing I said about Andrej Sekera, only Hainsey plays more of a defensive game and is a better penalty killer. His contributions on the PK alone should make him a good addition, but how else can Hainsey help Carolina?

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Considering all options

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

As most of hockey world knows by now, the Hurricanes will be without defenseman Joni Pitkanen for the entire 2013-14 season. Pitkanen shattered his heel bone in a game against Washington in early-April and the word is that while the surgery was a success, he still has not been able to put weight on it and that's bad news for him making any sort of return in the next calendar year. The news isn't a surprise given the severity of the injury but it doesn't make it any less devastating.

Pitkanen doesn't have the reputation of being a great defenseman around the league, but he is someone who typically logs 20+ minutes a night on the Canes blue line and that alone will be very tough to replace. He is also the Hurricanes best puck-moving defenseman and pretty much the only one on the blue-line capable of pushing the play forward on his own. People talk about how the Canes had "too many" puck-movers last year, but the truth is that Pitkanen was the only one who was effective at it. Pitkanen does make a lot of mistakes in his own zone, but that should not overshadow all the contributions he makes (making good plays out of his own zone, leading breakouts, giving another dimension to the Canes forecheck by jumping into the rush) so making up for this loss will be no easy feat.

Considering how bad the injury looked, one would hope that the Hurricanes front office prepared for this news and have a contingency plan ready. Expecting Pitkanen to come back any sooner than January was probably wishful thinking and let's be honest, the Hurricanes defense was in rough shape even with him healthy, so there should have been plans to add someone else to the mix even if Pitkanen was going to return mid-season. Jim Rutherford did say earlier in the summer that they wanted to add another defenseman, but needed to move someone before doing so, which probably relates to cap space and clearing roster room.

As of right now, the Canes have a little under $5 mil. in cap room and 16 defensemen in camp battling for roughly 6-7 spots. Pitkanen coming off the books opens up a spot in camp and about $4.5 mil. in cap space. That should give Rutherford enough breathing room to add another defenseman through free agency or a trade before the season starts. With the season being less than a month away, one would think that the Hurricanes options are limited but there are actually more doors open than some may believe.

I already talked about the idea of adding Ron Hainsey or Tom Gilbert through agency last week, but what else is open to them?

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Five free agents that could help the Hurricanes

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

Carolina's training camp begins today and while they have only one player there on a professional tryout deal (Radek Dvorak), the door could still be open for them to add a few more bodies to camp. If the entering roster is any indication, Kirk Muller and his staff are aiming to have a young team this year and most of the club's prospects will compete for the few remaining roster spots. This could easily change within the next few weeks, though. There is alwaya chance that the younger players struggle in camp or look shaky during the pre-season and if that happens, the Canes may look to bring another player or two before the season starts. 

Despite it being September, there are still some solid free agents remaining and can be brought in at a low cost. There isn't going to be much expected out of someone who is brought in on a Professional Tryout contract, but sometimes players like this can prove to be decent value. The Charlotte Checkers signed Dan Ellis to a tryout contract last year and he ended up being the Hurricanes back-up goalie after playing well during the lockout. With there being so many decent players left in the free agent pool, it wouldn't be a surprise to see them add a couple more guys to camp, especially after Joni Pitkanen's injury status is announced.

Tom Gilbert and Ron Hainsey are two players who I've already talked about being on the Hurricanes radar, but who else is out there?

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Hurricanes announce training camp roster

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

After a few days of anticipation, the Hurricanes revealed their training camp roster for the 2013-14 season. The full roster can be viewed here and while there aren't many late additions, the Hurricanes are inviting a lot of young players to camp. There are 16 rookies on the camp roster including 12 who were with the team at the prospect tournament in Traverse City. There are also 14 players who were with the Checkers on the roster and the only veteran in camp on a tryout deal is forward Radek Dvorak, which was announced earlier in the week.

With the Canes bottom-six being wide open right now, it's not surprising to see a lot of younger guys get a shot and that should make this a very fun camp to watch. There are going to be a lot of guys competing for the last four or five forward spots and hopefully that will bring out the best in some of these younger players.

I have a feeling that this is what the team was hoping to do last season but the lockout prevented Kirk Muller from getting a good look at everyone in the system and put a damper on things. This led to a lot of players getting cycled in and out of the lineup throughout the year. There should be more consistency this year since Muller will have more time to judge some of the fringe guys and there are a lot of them.

There are a few rookies who will probably be on the team on opening night (Murphy & Lindholm) but after them, it's pretty much open season. Most would expect Riley Nash to be on the team since he was with the Hurricanes for all of the second half of last season but if Lindholm makes the team, he is going to have to outplay a few guys for the fourth line spot. Zac Dalpe will also have to really impress the coaching staff with more experienced players like Nathan Gerbe & Aaron Palushaj in camp. The same can be said for Brett Bellemore, who could very well be in the running for one of the final roster spots.

Perhaps the most surprising name on the camp roster is Sergey Tolchinsky, who was signed as an undrafted free agent after an impressive showing at the Hurricanes development camp two months ago. It isn't too often that you'll see an undrafted rookie receive an invite to professional training camp, but it's hard to say that Tolchinsky didn't earn this. He has worked his butt off after being passed over in the draft and has done nothing but impress the Hurricanes both at their development camp and at Traverse City. It will be interesting to see how he performs against adults, though since it looks like he will dominate at the junior ranks next year.

Other rookies who could have an outside chance for roster spots are Brody Sutter, Danny Biega, Brendan Woods and Brock McGinn. All of whom have played briefly in Charlotte and could be on the coaching staff's radar after development camp. I expect another player or two to be added after tomorrow when Joni Pitkanen's status is released but for now, it looks like the Canes will judge what they have in their system before making any other moves.

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