Tim Gleason's status as the team's main shutdown defenseman is one thing that has remained constant for the Hurricanes in recent seasons. He is taxed with a big workload every year and is usually praised for doing most of the grunt work on the Hurricanes blue-line because he is arguably the most physical player on the team and is always among the league leaders in blocked shots. While there's nothing wrong with that, it does have some negative implications. Playing such a rough style of hockey can take a toll on a player's body over time and limit how effective they are as they get older. We have seen this happen to many players before, as once solid shutdown defensemen like Robyn Regehr, Douglas Murray and Greg Zanon have seen their performance decline after they turned 30. Is Gleason in danger of going down the same path?

His performance last year was a pretty concerning to say the very least. Gleason was on the ice for more 5v5 goals against than he was in the last five seasons and he was also on the ice for 18 power play goals against on top of that. To make mater worse, Gleason's Corsi Rel. of -11.5 was his worst showing in six seasons and he was on the ice for more scoring chances against at even strength than anyone else on the Canes defense corps. What all of this numerical mumbo jumbo means is that Gleason wasn't exactly shutting anyone down because the Hurricanes were trapped in their own zone whenever he was out there. 

This is something that simply can not happen again if Gleason is going to stay in the top-four, but there are indications that he was not at 100% last year. He missed time with a lower-body injury and reportedly played part of the season with a broken foot. It's uncertain when or how long he was playing with said injury, but it would explain a lot of his struggles and why he looked less mobile than usual last year. Although, Gleason's issues with keeping play out of his own zone aren't limited to last season. 

Stats taken from Hockey Analysis

In five of the last six seasons, the Hurricanes have been outshot more with Gleason on the ice than they were when he was not. Last year being one of his worst seasons during that time. Although, one thing that is worth pointing out is that Gleason received the tough matchups in all but one of these seasons and was forced to start a lot of his even strength shifts in the shadow of his own goaltender, which probably impacted how many shots against that he was on the ice for.

It is always tough to judge the play of a shutdown defenseman because a lot of them are given heavy assignments and end up with brutal underlying numbers as a result. So using raw shot data can be misleading when grading their performance but there are ways to take context into account with these numbers. I've posted Carolina's zone-start adjusted Corsi & scoring chance numbers in the past and while that's one way to do it, Toronto Maple Leafs blogger Steve Burtch has taken thing to another level by introducing a new stat to evaluate defensive play titled "Shutdown Index."

An explanation of the stat and how it's developed can be found here, but the gist of it is that it compares the expected defensive performance to their actual results and comes up with a score based on that. Stats taken into account are 5v5 ice time, each player's Corsi against, the opponent's Corsi for, the player's team Corsi without him on the ice and his defensive zone start percentage to take context into account. Mind you, this is a stat that judges only defensive performance rather than a defenseman's ability to drive the play forward so we're looking at just one side of the rink here.

How this is relevant to Hurricanes fans is that Gleason ranks as one of the "20 Worst Shutdown Defensemen" in the NHL over the last six years according to this index. Meaning that he has performed below expectations and has struggled to keep play out of his own end even when taking usage into account. His numbers are comparable to the likes of Bryce Savlador and Scott Hannan, who are both known as stay-at-home defensemen but they are near the end of their respective careers and aren't nearly as good as they used to be. (Also making an apperance on the chart is Jamie McBain, but we don't have to worry about that anymore.)

I don't like using one stat as a way to sum up a player's abilities, but when you consider this along with the fact that the Hurricanes have been worse territorially with Gleason on the ice, it's hard to justify using him as the team's main shutdown defenseman next season. Unless he dramatically improves or plays more like he did in 2011-12 (his best NHL season), the Hurricanes might be in trouble if he is the main guy playing the toughs. Do they have any other options, though? Oddly enough, they do.

Something you may notice in the first chart is that Gleason didn't rank first in quality of competition faced among defensemen last season. Instead, it was Justin Faulk was the one playing those matchups and while Gleason was his defense partner for a portion of the season, they spent a good chunk of the year apart so it's possible that Faulk can replace Gleason as the team's main shutdown guy. In fact, I would argue and say he did just that last season. 

As I said in my review of the team's defense corps, Faulk got basically all of the tough matchups last season and while he ended up being a negative possession player, his performance was not bad when taking his usage into account and he was on another level before getting hurt. The issue now is finding someone to play with Faulk on the top pairing, especially if Joni Pitkanen ends up missing all of the season. It may not be a popular decision, but if no one else is brought in, Andrej Sekera could be the guy. Going by Burtch's Shutdown Index, Sekera is the best defensive defenseman on the current roster and he played the toughs in Buffalo so he could be a decent option on the top pairing if that's where he ends up.

Carolina's defense corps is in rough shape right now so the most they can do is make the most out of what they have and using Sekera & Faulk as a shutdown pair might be what they have to do with this current group of defensemen. I suspect that Gleason will continue to get big minutes, though and hopefully for Carolina's sake his performance is better than what it was last year.

The Hurricanes played most of last season with a banged up roster and an important piece missing was Tuomo Ruutu. The rugged winger was limited to only 17 games last season after undoing hip surgery during the lockout. It was clear that his absence created a big void to fill in the Hurricanes top-six, as the team struggled to replace him on the second line. The right wing spot was basically a revolving door for the first two months of the seasons and it had a big impact on the Canes secondary scoring.

Some would consider Ruutu a "declining player" because he is in his 30's (he's the oldest forward on the team), has battled injuries the last couple of seasons and posted underwhelming numbers in his last full-season. Ruutu's health is a major concern, especially since he is now playing on two surgically repaired hips, but calling him a "declining" player is a bit of a stretch. The injuries may hinder the physical side of Ruutu's game but when healthy, he was very effective last year.

Ruutu has been able to score at a top-six rate at even strength for most of his career and this didn't change last season. His nine points in 17 games would give him an even strength scoring rate of 2.08 points per 60 minutes. This is a small sample size, but it does show that Ruutu had a pretty big impact when he was healthy and his even strength scoring rate over the last five seasons has been among the best on the team.

Ruutu has been one of the five best forwards on the team during this time and only the top line scored at a higher rate than him last season. Also consider that he has been a positive possession player and someone who can play the tough matchups if needed and it's easy to conclude that Ruutu is a key piece for Carolina. Being able to get at least 60+ games out of him next season will go a long way. 

As of right now, Ruutu is listed as one of three left wings on the roster, but I think he will eventually end up on a line with Jordan Staal & Jeff Skinner. The reason why I'm clamoring for these three to be put together so much is because they are the most dangerous offensive players on the team not on the first line and there are indications that they can be a formidable second line. I've mentioned before that Staal & Skinner showed more chemistry than they were given credit for, as they were the Hurricanes best duo at controlling the shot battle last year. This will eventually lead to more goals next season and adding Ruutu will only make things better.

Why? Because Ruutu has a history of playing well with Jeff Skinner. These two along with Jussi Jokinen formed what was arguably the Hurricanes best scoring line in 2010-11 & 2011-12, and there's no reason why they can't do the same with Staal centering them. I mentioned earlier that the Hurricanes second line was inconsistent last year because they cycled through so many different players at the right wing, but adding Ruutu could be what makes this unit gel together.

Ruutu doesn't have much of a history playing with Staal, but Skinner's results with him are hard to beat.

Since Skinner entered the league, his goal production has always been higher when he plays with Ruutu and he has produced at a first line rate with him, too. Given how often these two have played together, that is very impressive and it makes little sense to separate them. Playing away from Ruutu hasn't affected Skinner's ability to drive the play, but it's interesting to see how much his point production drop. He isn't the only one who Ruutu's had this effect on, although his is a little more extreme. 

Both Staal & Jokinen saw their point production slightly decline while playing away from Ruutu and Jokinen was a negative possession player away from him. He hasn't played that many minutes with Staal yet, but his results with him are promising thus far and adding Skinner into the equation could really put them over the edge. Skinner & Ruutu have shown tremendous chemistry in past seasons and have the potential to form a great second line with Staal as the pivot. All they need is some time to work together, which they were not given last season.

Scoring depth was a major issue for the Hurricanes last season and while they didn't make many moves to address it this off-season, it could be mitigated if they get more out of their second line this year. Skinner & Staal are due to have more productive years, but getting Ruutu may end up being the difference maker for this unit.

Stats courtesy of Behind the Net & Hockey Analysis

Another new face will be at training camp, as it was announced that the Hurricanes invited veteran forward Radek Dvorak to their training camp which begins in another week or so. Dvorak has played for seven different NHL clubs over 16 seasons and was most recently with the Anaheim Ducks. He was brought in after the trade deadline and contributed nicely with four goals in nine games. However, he failed to crack the lineup for any of their seven playoff games.

Now 36 years old, Dvorak has seen most of his skills dwindle in recent seasons. He was once a quick, effective checking line player who could get you at least 10 goals and 30+ points in a year but it's been awhile since has been able to do that. Dvorak's speed is mostly gone and he has struggled to get the puck moving in the right direction at even strength becuase of it. The one thing Dvorak can still do adequately is kill penalties and that is likely why he received an invite to the Canes training camp.

The Hurricanes penalty kill is in desperate need of an upgrade and adding Dvorak could certainly help that if he makes the team. Despite his brutal numbers at even strength, Dvorak has been a decent penalty killer in recent seasons and might earn a spot on opening night if he outplays some of the younger guys. Between the Staal brothers, Semin, Dwyer, Nash, Bowman and Lindholm, the Hurricanes have enough forwards who can kill penalties so I don't think adding another is going to have much of an impact, especially if it's a fringe guy like Dvorak.

There's nothing wrong with adding more depth, but it will end up not meaning much if Dvorak continues to be a black hole at even strength and he takes a roster spot away from a younger player with more upside. The Hurricanes bottom-six is basically wide open right now so whoever has the best team will make the camp and many of them are at the age where the Canes need to find out if they are ready for the NHL. I see those players as more attractive options than Dvorak because youknow what you're going to get with him while the younger players have the potential to do more. This is pretty much the same thing I said when the team signed Anthony Stewart two summers ago and Stephane Yelle two years before that.

If Dvorak were a better player at even strength then this would be a different story, but he has been pretty brutal in that regard for the last few years. He is still a good defensive player and a decent penalty killer, but his inability to turn that into offense and move the puck up really hinders him from being anything more than a fourth liner at the NHL level. Josh Lile from the Stars blog Defending Big D had this to say about him following Dvorak's 2011-12 season (his last full year in the NHL):

The bad is that he and his linemates weren't particularly good at the role they were given. That isn't his fault, but they were railroaded on a semi-nightly basis. Over 60 even strength minutes Dvorak's shot differential was -5. It doesn't take long for that to add up to a massive deficit especially when playing in a checking role..

If you look at his Behind the Net player card I linked to earlier, you'll see that Dvorak was used in a tough, checking line role with the Stars and he was destroyed territorially. His ability to control possession at even strength was actually last among regular Dallas forwards that year and his performance in other years hasn't been much better.

Carolina isn't going to use him in a tough-minute role since they have Jordan Staal's line taking care of those minutes, but Dvorak is probably just a fourth liner and the Hurricanes have enough guys who can play that kind of role right now. Someone like Bowman or Nash should be able to do the same thing as Dvorak without being a liability at even strength.

That said, this just a camp tryout and could end up being nothing in a few weeks.

The Hurricanes received some terrible, but unsurprising, news yesterday that defenseman Joni Pitkanen could miss the start of the year, as he has not fully recovered from a heel injury he sustained late last season. This isn't a shocker considering how gruesome the injury looked, but not having him in the lineup is a huge blow to the Hurricanes. Pitkanen typically plays more minutes per game than any other defender, but that alone isn't why he will be missed.

A month ago, I talked about how Pitkanen was the only true "puck-mover" on the Hurricanes blue-line and how superior he was at driving the play forward compared to the rest of the defense corps. He adds another dimension to the Hurricanes breakout game and forecheck, which is going to be tough to replace because no other defenseman on the team really has that ability. Long-term, Ryan Murphy should be the guy that slides into Pitkanen's role but right now, the Canes don't really have a puck-mover who is as skilled as him.

Justin Faulk has offensive skill and can move the puck, but he has developed more as a shutdown defenseman, Andrej Sekera also has a decent skillset, but it obviously isn't as high as Pitkanen's while players like Tim Gleason, Jay Harrison, Mike Komisarek and Brett Bellemore are all more of stay-at-home players. So, unless Murphy is ready to make hte leap to the NHL next year, then the Hurricanes are going to need to add another blue-liner between now and October to help make up for what they're losing in Pitkanen. 

There are a few things getting in the way of that, though. The first of which relates to cap space and whether or not the Canes have enough room to add another player. Right now, they have a little under $5 mil. in cap space remaining and that number will go up if Pitkanen were to go on Long Term Injured Reserve. Jim Rutherford has mentioned that he wants to add a defenseman but has to move one first, and I think this is why. Pitkanen going on LTIR would give him a little more wiggle room under the salary cap to make a move.

The question is whether or not there is anyone out there who can adequately take over Pitkanen's minutes. It is September after all. The only players left are those who other teams didn't want and there's probably a reason why they haven't been getting many offers. There isn't going to be a perfect replacement for him, but if you glance at the free agent market, there are two potential top-four defensemen who stand out. Those players being Tom Gilbert and Ron Hainsey.

Both are relatively young (i.e. under 35), are capable of playing a top-four role and fill an immediate need on the Hurricanes defense corps. Who is the better fit for the team, though? Most Carolina fans seem to want Hainsey because he has a reputation as a shot-blocking, crease-clearing defenseman that the team has always "needed," but I am more partial to Gilbert. With Pitkanen out, the team needs someone who can quarterback the power play and provide some offense from the blue-line. Gilbert can do that and at 30 years old, he isn't too far removed from his prime years.

I've watched and read about Gilbert a lot over the last few years, probably because I read Copper & Blue on a daily basis, and I honestly think he would be a perfect fit for Carolina. This is a guy who can lead breakouts on his own, get the puck moving in the right direction and elevate the performance of his teammates. He can also play on both special teams units and was a solid contributor to the Oilers power play in recent seasons. Basically, Gilbert can do almost everything Pitkanen did and would be a good replacement for him while he is out, especially if he is available at a low price. 

What about Hainsey, though? Admittedly, I don't know a ton about him other than he is more of a defensive-defenseman and I think the team has enough of those. That doesn't mean he wouldn't be a good addition, though. Much like it's wrong to assume that Gilbert is "bad defensively" because he is a puck mover, it's unfair for me to assume that Hainsey is an anchor because he is an older defensive defenseman. So, after the jump, we will look at what Hainsey brings to the table and how he compares to Gilbert.

Much like a few other teams in this new division, making the playoffs is simply isn't enough for the Washington Capitals as they go into every year with Stanley Cup aspirations. They have been to the playoffs every year since 2007, winning their division in five of those six years, but have still yet to get past the second round of the playoffs. Everyone seems to have their own theory on the Capitals post-season struggles but as far as last season goes, you can say that they were lucky to get as far as they did.

At the beginning of March, this was a team that was sitting near the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings and heading towards a possible lottery pick. Then a light suddenly went off and the Caps became the hottest team in the NHL down the stretch. They went 20-7-2 in March and April and easily ascended their way through the Southeast Division standings, eventually winning their fifth title in six years. Given how strong they finished the year, the Caps look like a club that is on the rise and one that can contend in this new division. However, there were a lot of things that went in their favor which contributed to their playoff push.

Washington's incredible run to end the season was powered by their star player, Alex Ovechkin, catching fire and scoring 24 goals in his final 29 games of the season and goaltender Braden Holtby posting a .930 save percentage in March & April. Some argued that the players needed time to adjust to Adam Oates' system in a lockout shortened year with no training camp and while that might be true, it is still doubtful that either of these will happen in a full 82-game season. Ovechkin is still a fantastic player and one of the best goal-scorers in the league but the days of him scoring at a 67-goal pace are over and the odds of Holtby posting a .930+ save percentage in a full year seem low.

Given these points and that 11 of their last 20 wins came against the Southeast Division, it seems doubtful that Washington can go on this kind of run while playing in a tougher division. That doesn't mean that they can't be competitive, though. The Caps have enough pieces in place so that they can be in a "win now" mode every year and they always seem to make a few tweaks every off-season to improve their roster. This year was no different, but is it enough for them to stay a playoff team in a tougher division?

I've already gone over a few ways that the Hurricanes can improve their awful penalty kill and one thing I suggested is taking Eric Staal off the second unit. Staal is generally regarded as a solid two-way center and someone who can handle defensive minutes, but I have never thought that. While I don't think Staal is a liability in his own end, his defensive play has never stood out to me and he is usually one of the team's worst forwards in terms of chances against, both at even strength and on the penalty kill.

Staal's primary strength has always been his offense and his ability to dominate play along the boards, so I've always been in favor of taking him off the penalty kill in favor of a more defensive-minded center. The only problem is that the Hurricanes never had another center to anchor their second penalty kill unit and usually alternated between guys like Staal, Jokinen & Brent when the first unit needed a breather. You can argue that the latter two are better defensively and should have been killing penalties more often than Staal, but the Hurricanes captain does bring a lot of positives to the PK.

Projected by many to win the Cup last year, the Pittsburgh Penguins ended up falling just short, losing to the Boston Bruins in the Eastern Conference finals. Some expected this to be the end of the line for head coach Dan Bylsma because the team had a "Cup or bust" mentality going into the post-season but their front office kept a cool head and didn't make any major changes this summer. The Penguins may have come up short of expectations the last few years, but they've had the highest winning percentage in the NHL since Bylsma took over and are usually one of the best teams in the NHL under his control. Sticking with him for the next couple of years was probably the right call for GM Ray Shero.

Regular season success doesn't mean a whole lot to Pittsburgh, though because they've been there before and are more concerned with trying to win another Stanley Cup. They appeared to be on the right track to do that last season, having the top seed in the Eastern Conference basically clinched a month before the season was over. If going undefeated in the month of March wasn't enough to make them Cup favorites, Shero tried to beef up the roster by adding Jarome Iginla, Douglas Murray, Jussi Jokinen and Brendan Morrow at the deadline, all of whom had playoff experience. 

Most of these acquisitions didn't have the impact Pittsburgh hoped they would, at least not in the playoffs. Iginla struggled at times, Morrow looked like he barely had anything left in the tank and was scratched, Murray was kept to a third pairing role and Jokinen played on the fourth line after Crosby returned to the lineup. Jokinen was the only one returning this year and that is probably a good thing because the Penguins were a great team before acquiring these veterans and should remain one of the top clubs in their division this next year.

Do they have what it takes to get over the hump and win another Cup, though? It's hard to say that now but after the jump, we'll review their off-season and look at how they shape up for next season.

As long as Paul Holmgren is running things, the Flyers off-season will always be some sort of wild adventure and this summer was no different. He didn't do anything absurd like trade Claude Giroux or try to get Alex Pietrangelo to sign an offer-sheet, but the Flyers were still very active this off-season and were the laughing stock of Twitter for a couple of days. Things started off early when the team elected to use both of their amnesty buyouts on Danny Briere & Ilya Bryzgalov, which was followed up by them trading for Mark Streit and signing him to a long-term deal. They then signed Vincent Lecavalier to a five-year deal with a cap hit of $4.5 mil. goaltender Ray Emery to a one-year contract.

So how do the Flyers look after these moves? Honestly, not too bad. Some laughed at Holmgren for handing out long-term deals to declining players because they feel the team needs to rebuild after how bad they were last season. The Streit & Lecavalier contracts will look bad in a couple years and I'm not sure how the Flyers can justify throwing away so much money on Bryzgalov, but it's hard to say that Holmgren didn't improve the roster and I think the Flyers should be a pretty good team this year.

Like Carolina, the Flyers experienced some awful luck with injuries and had only nine skaters who appeared in 40 or more games. They also cycled through 13 different defensemen throughout the season and were relying on fringe NHL players like Bruno Gervais and Oliver Lauridsen to play regular minutes by the end of the season. The Flyers defense still has plenty of concerns, but I find it hard to believe that their injury problems will stay this bad. A healthy roster could be what they need to get back to the playoffs. 

The Flyers are also a team that has regularly gives the Hurricanes fits ever since the the Whalers franchise moved to North Carolina. The Hurricanes are 30-64-14-10 all-time against the Flyers and have the lowest point-percentage against them than any other team in the Eastern Conference. The Canes were also swept by Philly over three games last season and took only one of four from them the previous year. Just goes to show that it doesn't matter where each team is in the standings because the Flyers have always had the Canes number and this is something that will need to change with the two becoming division rivals now.

I've already gave an overview of the Flyers off-season and after the jump, we'll take a closer look at their roster and see how the Canes match up with them this year.

Expectations for the New York Rangers were higher than they've been in years. Many had them as a lock for the playoffs and a possible Cup favorite and it was pretty easy to see the reasons behind it. They were the top seed in the Eastern Conference the previous season and made a big splash in the off-season by trading for Rick Nash of the Columbus Blue Jackets to help them get over the hump. Perhaps this is why many saw last year as a disappointment for them.

For most teams, making the playoffs for the fourth time in five years would be enough to keep your fanbase happy, but more was expected out of the Rangers last year. Most thought that they would at least make it out of the second round given the talent on their roster and how good they were the previous season. The Rangers came up short of those lofty expectations, finishing sixth in the Eastern Conference and losing in the second round in five games to the Boston Bruins. The general consensus was that the Rangers underperformed all of last year and head coach John Tortorella was the one who took the fall in the head, as he was relieved of his duties and replaced with Alain Vigneault. 

It's tough to say how much of the Rangers problems were related to Tortorella because if you look beyond their results, they were a pretty great team at even strength and could have finished higher in the standings in an 82-game season. They also had a few things go in their favor the previous year which resulted in them tallying more points in the standings (top 10 5v5 shooting percentage, 21-5-7 in one-goal-games etc.) and it was going to be tough for them to replicate that no matter what. This isn't even going into their questionable depth both up front and on defense, which was going to be tested in a shortened year. 

The Rangers may have gone into the year with Cup aspirations, but they had their share of questions and I thought Tortorella did a decent job when taking those into consideration. After all, this was a mediocre team at even strength the previous year and they really improved in that department last year, even if they weren't getting rewarded for it as much. However, I do tend to agree that there were some key guys on the Rangers who underperformed and while I'm not sure how much of that is on Tortorella, there seemed to be some tension between him and the players. I usually don't buy into the "coach lost the team" narrative, but there have been some current and former players who have talked about what it is like to play under Torts and they didn't have much positive to say. So maybe a fresh start under a new coach will help the Rangers?

Can Vigneault make that much of a difference, though? He has guided the Vancouver Canucks to six Northwest Division titles and two President's Trophies but succeeding in the playoffs has been where his teams have come up short. His coaching strategy is pretty similar to Tortorella's, so I think he is a great fit for the Rangers because there won't be as much of an adjustment period. He could also get through to some of the younger players better than Tortorella did, which could definitely help guys like Mats Zuccarello, JT Miller and Chris Kreider.

The Rangers enter this season with almost the same roster and core pieces as they had the previous season, so it will be interesting to see how much of a difference the coaching change makes. I don't think Tortorella was all of the Rangers problems, but they replaced him with a great coach and have a solid foundation in place so they should have a good season. Will it be good enough to live up to their usual high expectations, though? After the jump, we'll explore that issue and take a closer look at the Rangers roster.

The Islanders shocked a lot of people last season by making their first playoff appearance in six years and continued to do so by giving the top-seeded Pittsburgh Penguins a run for their money in the first round. They ended up being eliminated in six games but many who watched that series were impressed with how the Islanders played and considered the better team for a few games. It may have come as a surprise to some since the Islanders are considered one of the perennial losers of the NHL, but they have quietly been building a solid foundation there for years and we are starting to see it pay off. 

Most would relate the Islanders success to them stocking up on high draft picks for years, the most notable one being 2009's first overall selection, John Tavares. While Tavares & other high draft picks played a major role in the Islanders return to relevancy, GM Garth Snow has done a very good job of acquiring talent in other rounds (Nielsen, Hamonic, MacDonald) and sprinkling them in with good low-risk acquisitions through trades (Visnovsky), free agency (Moulson, Boyes) and waivers (Grabner, Hickey). You generally need a solid mix of these to build a competitive team and the Isles have done a nice job of this over the last couple of years. Now the question is can they return to the playoffs and continue building off what they did last year. 

The Isles have a good young nucleus, so the belief is that they should get better this year with players like Tavares, Bailey & Okposo entering their primes. They also have a lot of young talent in juniors and the minors who should be ready to make an impact relatively soon and when you take that into account, it's fair to speculate that the Islanders could be a contending team for years to come. However, the new playoff format could make it tough for them to be contenders every year unless they can add more elite talent to their rankings. This is a good team, but how well do they stack up against the rest of the Metropolitan Division?