Carolina vs. The Metropolitan Division: New Jersey Devils

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

Most of the talk surrounding the New Jersey Devils has been negative. They lost their best player to "early NHL retirement," gave Ryane Clowe a contract that they'll probably regret in a couple years and traded away their top-ten pick for goaltender Cory Schneider. Factor that in with them having some pretty ugly results last season and you have the Devils getting mostly negative press this summer. Some of it is warranted, as Kovalchuk departing for Russia came out of nowhere and will probably hurt the team but the Devils have plenty of things to look forward to this season.

The hockey gods can be so cruel at times and the Devils seemed to be on the short end of the luck battle every night. They were a team that could not score at even strength or on the power play and they received some of the worst goaltending in the league on top of that. If they were to play a full season with the same roster, there is a pretty solid chance that they would have finished higher in the standings than where they did last season. With that being said, their goaltending and lack of offense still would have hampered the team from being a serious contender and GM Lou Lamoreillo did a fine job of filling both of those needs this off-season. 

This is why the trade for Schneider was made and while this will likely be his first year as a full-time starter, he should be an improvement over the Brodeur/Hedberg tandem that posted a combined save percentage of .893 in 2013. New Jersey also acquired a few guys who can put the puck in the back of the net in Jaromir Jagr & Michael Ryder, who should be able to help make up for some of the players they lost last off-season. Is it enough to make New Jersey a playoffs team again? We'll explore that issue and more after the jump.

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Carolina vs. The Metropolitan Division: Columbus Blue Jackets

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

This season brings a new challenge for the Hurricanes as they will move from the friendly confides of the Southeast Division to the much tougher "Metropolitan Division" as part of the NHL's realignment. Joining them in this division will be the Washington Capitals, the Columbus Blue Jackets and all five teams from the old Atlantic Division. Carolina will have their work cut out for them in this new division, as it features four teams that made the playoffs last year and at least five teams who are considered perennial contenders.

Seeing how the Hurricanes have spent the last half decade playing in what was probably the weakest division in the NHL, most hockey minds see them struggling in the Metropolitan Division and not being a playoff team for a long, long time. The Canes also finished in the bottom-ten of the NHL last season while playing a good chunk of their games against divisional opponents, so how can they possibly expect to contend in a tougher division?

The next year could be tough on the Hurricanes, but what gets lost is that all teams go through good and bad periods and not all of these teams will stay contenders perennially. If this realignment occurred after the 2004-05 lockout, then the Metropolitan Division would have four of the five worst teams in the Eastern Conference and the Blue Jackets, who were the second worst team in the West at the time. This obviously isn't the case now, but it's entirely possible that this division won't be nearly as tough a few years down the road. 

As for next season, most seem to think that the Hurricanes are destined for a last place finish because of how tough this division appears to be, but I think each of these teams have their share of problems and Carolina may not be as outmatched as some of the experts think they will be. Over the next week, we'll take a closer look at these teams and talk about how the Hurricanes match up with them. Today, we'll start off with the team migrating from out "West," The Columbus Blue Jackets.

The Jackets are no strangers to playing in tough divisions, as they have spent the majority of their existence in the same division as the Chicago Blackhawks and Detroit Red Wings. They have only made the playoffs once in 13 seasons and are usually in the middle of the pack or lower part of the Western Conference standings. There are signs of them being on the upswing, though. They were the hottest team in the NHL from March onward and appear to be under good management with John Davidson and Jarmo Kekalainen running the ship now.

Carolina doesn't have much history with the Blue Jackets, but many see Columbus as a "sleeper" team in this new division and one that could challenge for a playoff spot. Are the Jackets for real or was the run they went on last year all smoke & mirrors? We'll discuss that after the jump and look at how the Hurricanes match up with them.

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Hurricanes lineup rough draft

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

Projecting lineups at this part of the year is tough because training camp hasn't even happened yet and coaches usually like to play around with line combinations during pre-season before they settle on four units that they like. Defense pairings are often the same way, since it takes time to develop chemistry and the Hurricanes will probably do some experimenting this year. You have to start somewhere, though and with training camp just around the corner, I figured I would give my two cents on what lines & defense pairings I would like to see the Canes try this year.

These are not final by any means, especially since no one has suited up for a game yet, but there's nothing wrong with throwing some ideas out there to give us something to build off of before training camp. with the exception of the first line of Jiri Tlusty, Eric Staal & Alexander Semin, the Hurricanes lineup is subject to a lot of changes, so it wouldn't surprised me to see a lot of different things thrown around over the next few months. There's also the potential of a few more moves, but if the Canes were to enter the season with the roster the way it is now, what line combinations & defense pairing would work best. 

That's hard to say right now, but after the jump, we'll look at what kind of lineup I would roll with to start the year. Again, this isn't anything final, just suggestions of what I believe could work well for the team. 

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Top 25 Under 25: #1 Jordan Staal

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

Position: Center
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 220 lbs.
Drafted:
1st Round, 2006 Draft
Age: 24
Last Year's Ranking: 1

Jordan Staal
Season Age Team Lge GP G A Pts P/G
2004-05 16 Peterborough Petes OHL 66 9 19 28 0.424
2005-06 17 Peterborough Petes OHL 68 28 40 68 1.000
2006-07 18 Pittsburgh Penguins NHL 81 29 13 42 0.519
2007-08 19 Pittsburgh Penguins NHL 82 12 16 28 0.341
2008-09 20 Pittsburgh Penguins NHL 82 22 27 49 0.598
2009-10 21 Pittsburgh Penguins NHL 82 21 28 49 0.598
2010-11 22 Pittsburgh Penguins NHL 42 11 19 30 0.714
2011-12 23 Pittsburgh Penguins NHL 62 25 25 50 0.806
2012-13 24 Carolina Hurricanes NHL 48 10 21 31 0.646

Jordan Staal's first year with the Hurricanes didn't go as well everyone had hoped, but when you look at his career performance, there is no doubting that he is the organization under 25 years of age. He has been a regular NHL-er for seven years and has also established himself as one of the best two-way centers in the league during that time. His reputation grew even stronger every year, as his offensive numbers improved and it got people wondering how good he could be if he wasn't confined to a third-line role with Penguins. This is what sparked him being traded to the Hurricanes and why Jim Rutherford gave up a pretty big package in order to get Staal. 

It's been one year since that deal was made and right now, most fans aren't too happy with how the Hurricanes made out of it so far. Jordan didn't have the big offensive season that everyone was hoping for and the Canes finished even lower in the standings than they did the year before. So the trade looks like a bust going by that alone, but 48 games is not enough to write off this trade as a "loss." It's also not enough to write off a player with Jordan's resume, especially since his first year with the Canes really was not that bad.

Him scoring only 10 goals wasn't encouraging and some people will probably use his -18 plus-minus as evidence of "poor defensive" play, but his underwhelming boxcar numbers were mostly due to terrible shooting luck. Throughout his career, Jordan has been a high-percentage shooter and is usually the kind of player who will go to the net and bang away at rebounds for his goals. Last year, he shot at only 8.8%, which is well below his career average and the lowest shooting percentage he has posted since his sophomore season. Given that his shot per game rate was relatively the same as it was in previous seasons, I would bank on him to have more goals next year. There is no doubt he'll get the ice time and the opportunity, so I think a better offensive season is just around the corner for Jordan.

That being said, even with scoring only 10 goals, Jordan's 31 points in 48 games would be pro-rated to about 52-53 points in a full-82 game season, which really is not bad for a second line center. I know that people were expecting more after his last two years in Pittsburgh, but Jordan's first year with the Hurricanes really wasn't as horrible as some would lead to you imagine. Maybe people would feel differently if more of those points came from goals than assists? I don't know. Either way, Jordan is capable of doing more, as he showed in Pittsburgh, and the expectations for him are going to be higher than ever next year with his 10 year contract kicking in.

If Staal continues to be a 50-60 point player throughout his career, the $6 mil. cap hit will probably look like an overpayment, but this is ignoring a lot of the other things Staal does on the ice. I mentioned earlier that he was one of the best two-way centers in the league and this remained true last year, even those who believe that plus-minus is a legit stat will tell you otherwise. What has made Jordan so valuable over his entire career is his ability to play against the opposition's best players and beat them territorially. He made a living out of doing this on Pittsburgh's third line for years and did the same on the Hurricanes second line last season. Staal may have been on the ice for more goals against than previous seasons, how many of them were his own fault is debatable, but the Canes were the team controlling the play at even strength when he was on the ice and that should lead to better results in the big picture.

In addition to being a superb possession player, Jordan plays heavy minutes on the penalty kill and has scored at a high rate at even strength relative to his ice time. Despite playing a defensive role, Jordan scored over two even strength points per 60 minutes in three out of his last five seasons with the Penguins. His point production declined last year, but his numbers in past seasons was nearly first-line caliber, which is why he was so highly touted during his time in Pittsburgh.

Jordan's usage is somewhat different in Carolina, as he is playing more minutes at even strength now, but his role as his team's shutdown center is still mostly the same. I'm not sure if he'll ever have that "big" offensive season that everyone is hoping for, but he should have some great years ahead of him. He will play with more talented linemates than he did last season (A healthy Tuomo Ruutu makes a world of a difference) and I doubt he will continue to shoot as poorly as he did last season. As long as he continues to win his matchups and keep the play moving in the right direction, the goals and points at even strength will come to him. The power play might be a different story because Jordan has never been a huge producer there, but his point production & two-way play should be enough to make up for it in future seasons.

Failing to make the playoffs for the fourth year in a row is very frustrating, but I don't think it's fair to judge the Staal trade or him as a player based on last season alone. It's easy to get wrapped up in the results of a shortened year and forget that it was only 48 games and Jordan is so much better than what the results showed in a small sample of games. He has been a phenomenal player in the NHL for seven years and deserves the top spot here because of that.

Many people are always going to look back on this trade with a sense that the Canes overpaid to get Staal, but when it is all said and done, both teams will be happy they made the deal. Staal will have plenty of great seasons in Carolina and Brandon Sutter should continue to play a key role in Pittsburgh. Staal has been a difference-maker for his entire career, though and I think we will see more of that next year and beyond in Raleigh.

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Hurricanes player usage (2007-13)

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

For those who are into hockey metrics, it is very important to take context into consideration because it is going to have an impact on a player's underlying numbers & on-ice performance. Conext is usually found by looking at where a player started the majority of his shifts or the quality of opponents he is matched up against. The first stat is relatively easy to find, as any player's offensive zone start percentage can be found at Behind the Net, but quality of opponents is trickier. The popular method to quantify this is a stat called "QualComp" or "Corsi Rel. QualComp" which looks at the combined Corsi Rel. ratings of the opponents that a certain player is matched up against at even strength. 

In theory, this stat makes sense because it gives an indication how good your opponents are at driving the play, but it can get messy at times. Since Corsi Rel. is based on how good a player's team is at driving the play wtih him on the ice compared to when he is not, there are some instances where a good player might be rated negatively because he has strong teammates. Likewise, a mediocre player on a bad team could look incredible through this stat because of how weak his teammates are. Corsi Rel. is also prone to have a lot of anomalies when dealing with a small sample of games like last season.

Thus, an alternative to the "QualComp" statistic has been devised where the difficulty of a player's opponents is judged by their ice time instead of their combined Corsi Rel. In most cases, a first liner is going to be matched up against another team's best defensive players while someone playing a "shutdown" role will spend most of their minutes against the other team's best offensive players, who are guys that will get a lot of ice time no matter what. Much like a team's best defensive players will get more ice time than those who are held to a lesser role. Given that, it makes more sense to look at the opposition's ice time to judge a player's "quality of competition" instead of shot-based metrics. 

I always liked looking at this kind of data to get an insight of how coaches deploy their lineup because while there are some coaches who don't pay attention to matchups, some are very careful about them. Many coaches like to use a "shutdown line" to send out against the other team's best forwards while others are content with leaving their top players out in any situation. Since the Hurricanes have gone through three coaches since 2007, I thought it would be interesting to see how each of them rolled their lineups using opposing time on ice as a gauge for quality of competition instead of the old "QualComp" stat.

We know that Peter Laviolette, Paul Maurice & Kirk Muller have their own different way of doing things, but how were they different in terms of how they deployed their troops? Who paid more attention to matchups? Which players were trusted the most and who has consistently gotten the big assignments even with different coaches? Thanks to Muneeb Alam of Red Line Station, we can find out the answers to this by looking at each player's TOIComp numbers from the last six seasons.

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Hurricanes sign Sergey Tolchinsky

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

After impressing fans and coaches at the team's player development camp last month, the Hurricanes have decided to sign Sergey Tolchinsky to a three-year entry level contract. The Russian-born Tolchinsky is coming off a solid season with the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds of the OHL where he posted 54 points in 62 games. He was completely passed over in this year's draft but made an impression in a couple team's development camps and the Hurricanes liked him enough to ink him to an entry-level deal. 

For those who missed camp, Tolchinsky was arguably the biggest standout among anyone there. He scored two goals in the mini-scrimmage, was one of the best skaters in camp and displayed a ton of offensive skill, especially when it came to setting up plays. He is a small player and may need to get a little stronger to make the pros, but the kid can play and it was surprising that 30 teams passed over him in the draft, multiple times even. His size really becomes an afterthought when you watch him play because he was that effective both in juniors and at the Canes development camp.

The one thing that was getting in the way of the Hurricanes signing him was that they had to give him to a three-year deal, adding another contract to the reserve list and committing three years to a player who they haven't seen a whole lot of. That's a bit of a gamble for a team with 46-47 contracts already on the books and one thing that kept them from signing defenseman Torey Krug when he was in their camp a couple years ago. They also didn't have much time to sign Tolchinsky because he was in the New York Rangers camp a few weeks prior and already agreed to play for them in the upcoming Traverse City Prospects Tournament. Tolchinsky signing an entry-level deal makes his previous agreement with the Rangers null & void, so he will be suiting up for Carolina in Traverse City instead.

It's possible that Tolchinsky never plays a game for the Hurricanes but I still like the move regardless. The Canes were short a couple draft picks this year but still managed to add a highly talented prospect to their system without giving up anything except a contract on the 50-man roster spot. That really isn't a big deal when you consider that the Hurricanes really need prospect depth right now and just added a player who some projected to go in the first four rounds of this year's draft

Tolchinsky will likely return to Sault Ste. Marie next year and could get a shot with the Charlotte Checkers the following year. He could also be one of the Greyhounds best forwards if his development goes as planned, which will be great news for the Canes long-term future.
 

Career Stats

Sergey Tolchinsky
Year Team League GP G A Pts P/G
 2011-12 CSKA-Krasnaja Armija Moskva MHL 51 19 15 34 0.667
2011-12 Russia U17 WHC-17 5 3 0 3 0.600
 2012-13 Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds OHL 62 26 25 51 0.823
2012-13 Russia U18 WJC-18 7 3 1 4 0.571

 

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Top 25 Under 25: #2 Justin Faulk

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

Position: Defenseman
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 205 lbs.
Drafted:
2nd Round, 2010 Draft
Age: 21
Last Year's Ranking: 3

Justin Faulk
Season Age Team Lge GP G A Pts P/G
2008-09 16 USNTDP Under-18 Team NAHL 38 3 9 12 0.316
2008-09 16 U.S. National Under-18 Team Ind 1 0 0 0 0.000
2009-10 17 U.S. National Under-18 Team USHL 21 9 3 12 0.571
2010-11 18 U. of Minnesota-Duluth WCHA 39 8 25 33 0.846
2011-12 19 Carolina Hurricanes NHL 66 8 14 22 0.333
2011-12 19 Charlotte Checkers AHL 12 2 4 6 0.500
2012-13 20 Charlotte Checkers AHL 31 5 19 24 0.774
2012-13 20 Carolina Hurricanes NHL 38 5 10 15 0.395

Most teams are patient when it comers to developing their defensemen, which means they usually let them play an extra year in juniors or keep them in the AHL until they feel that they are ready. There are a good chunk of players who don't play in the NHL until their mid-20's and some of them take even longer to reach their full potential. Even those who appear "ready" for the pros are waited on a couple of years before they break into a full-time NHL role so that they can adjust to their role more easily. However, no such "development period" was needed for the Carolina Hurricanes young blue-liner Justin Faulk, who is already a top-four defenseman at the ripe age of 21. 

Whenever a defenseman of Faulk's age plays 24 minutes a night, most of which coming against the opposition's best players, it's usually due to there being a lot of injuries or the team in question having poor defensive depth. Both of these issues have plagued the Hurricanes during Faulk's time here, but anyone who watched Faulk play can tell you that he earned those minutes. He plays such a solid positional & defensive game for a player his age. That combined with his ability to make good passes & reads out of his own zone made Faulk a great option for tough-minutes and why he is becoming one of the best young shutdown defensemen in the league.

Seeing Faulk referred to as a "shutdown defenseman" might be kind of weird because he doesn't play a mean game and isn't physically intimidating at all. He is also very useful as a puck-mover and was an excellent offensive defenseman in college. However, when you look at Faulk's performance in the NHL, it's hard to call him anything but a shutdown defenseman and this was especially true last season. Faulk has a good shot & can play one of the points on the power play, but he was also used on the Hurricanes first penalty kill unit and was Kirk Muller's go-to option for playing against other team's scoring lines. The fact that he was matched up against the opposing team's first line in all but six of his games shows how much trust the coaching staff has in him and how his defensive game has evolved.

There are a few cogs in Faulk's game, though. The biggest of which being that he was a negative possession player in his first two NHL seasons. He did have some growing pains during his rookie season and struggled to stay afloat at even strength because of that, but he responded with a strong sophomore campaign where his defensive game looked miles better than it ever had before. He was one of the Hurricanes best defensemen at preventing chances, which is no easy feat when taking his workload into consideration. The only problem is that he spent more time trying to keep play out of his own end rather than driving the play north. As a result, he posted some weak offensive numbers and only seemed to create chances when the Canes were on the power play. That comes with the territory with a 45.5 Offensive Zone Start percentage, but this is one part of Faulk's game I would like to see improve. That being said, he still posted respectable underlying numbers while playing the role of Atlas on the Hurricanes blue-line.

Other than that, I don't think anyone can complain about the track Faulk is on right now. He hit a wall around March and got hurt shortly after, but his performance during the first two months of the season was at another level. Expecting him to play at that caliber for 82 games is probably unreasonable, but it did provide a glimpse at how good he can be and what the future could hold for him. Faulk is developing into the kind of player the Hurricanes can build their defense corps around and is only going to get better as his career progresses. Most defensemen who are able to break into the NHL at his age usually go onto bright futures, so there is a lot to be excited about with Justin Faulk.

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Top 25 Under 25: #3 Jeff Skinner

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

Position: Center/Wing
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 193 lbs.
Drafted:
1st Round, 2010 Draft
Age: 21
Last Year's Ranking: 2

Jeff Skinner
Season Age Team Lge GP G A Pts P/G
2008-09 16 Kitchener Rangers OHL 63 27 24 51 0.810
2009-10 17 Kitchener Rangers OHL 64 50 40 90 1.406
2010-11 18 Carolina Hurricanes NHL 82 31 32 63 0.768
2011-12 19 Carolina Hurricanes NHL 64 20 24 44 0.688
2012-13 20 Carolina Hurricanes NHL 42 13 11 24 0.571

There isn't much to say about Jeff Skinner that I haven't already gone over in the past few months. Yes, his scoring numbers have declined since his rookie year and his big numbers that year were due to him getting a lot of bounces. Things have normalized for him since then and his boxcar numbers have crashed down to Earth. The funny thing is that even after taking regression into consideration, Skinner's performance with the Hurricanes is still mightily impressive and something a lot of 21 year olds can only dream of. 

In the history of the NHL, there have been only 26 players who scored more goals than Skinner prior to their 21st birthday and only 37 have put up more points. Skinner's production might be "declining," but his goal-per-game rate would have him scoring at least 20 in his first three seasons in the NHL and have him posting 40+ points in addition to that. We've gone over a lot of players his age who struggle to score or make the league all together, but Skinner has managed to do both before he could legally drink alcohol in the United States. A player this good so early in his career is extremely rare to find.

So why are there so many questions and concerns surrounding Carolina's young star? Well, as I said earlier, part of it is due to Skinner's point totals declining in the last two seasons. Skinner had an amazing rookie season where a number of things went right for him (cushy assignments, high shooting percentage) and it was going to be hard for him to repeat that year no matter what. He had much more reasonable results the following season and continued to regress the following season. However, a lot of what went wrong for Skinner was outside of his control, as the Hurricanes posted an abysmal shooting percentage with him on the ice and Skinner himself also had a career low shooting percentage.

With Skinner having only 188 games played, it's tough to get a read on what his "true talent" level is, but I would wager to say that he is about a 8-11% shooter given his brief career numbers. Although, it could be lower because Skinner takes more shots than any other player on the team and that's not a bad thing. Skinner's goal totals might be declining, but he was creating chances at a higher rate than almost any other Carolina forward last year, and that includes all three members of the first line. He just wasn't seeing much of a reward for it and I have a feeling that will change as soon as next season. As I have said many times before, it's hard to create as much offense as Skinner does without getting rewarded for it, so that is why I think Skinner is due for a big year. Whether that comes in the form of goals or assists is another story.

Another positive that comes with Skinner being able to create so much offense is that it means the Hurricanes are usually the team controlling the play when he is on the ice. Skinner has been able to do this for his entire career and although he was helped by easy territorial assignments in his first two seasons, he really took a step forward in this department last year. Skinner's even strength shot differential was one of the highest among Carolina forwards and this was with him playing a tough-minute role alongside Jordan Staal. In other words, Skinner was usually playing against the opposition's best forwards and those players spent the majority of their time defending while the Hurricanes were on the attack. It may have not resulted in much last season, but it should pay off enormously for Carolina in the long-run. If these two stay together, that is.

Skinner's creativity and puck-handling is hard to replace, so if the rumors of him being shopped around are true, it would be wise for the Hurricanes to not sell low on him because of his "bad" counting stats. He had a bigger role in the neutral zone than anyone else on the team last year, so that should give you an idea of how much he contributes to the team's territorial play. That alone will be hard to replicate, but one downside that comes with Skinner handling the puck so much is that he is usually on the receiving end of big hits, a couple of which have injured him.

Learning to protect yourself is part of the game and this has probably been the slowest part of Skinner's development. Some of it isn't his fault, as Skinner is the primary puck-carrier on his line and most guys on the opposing team are going to target him based on that alone. However, Skinner always has his feet moving and often doesn't brace himself when receiving a hit because he is trying to draw a penalty. He also has some moments where he fails to keep his head up and gets knocked into next week as a result. This is something a lot of young players struggle with, but Skinner's lack of size probably doesn't help him here.

That being said, Skinner managed to stay healthy for most of last season even after taking a few big hits but there's still the concern that he might be another hit away from a serious injury because we've seen concussion issues doom a lot of talented players before. Skinner may grow bigger as he gets into his mid-20' but until then, he will need to do a better job of protecting himself because there are going to be players targeting him and there's not much he or the Hurricanes can do about it.

Outside of that, Skinner is a phenomenal player whose best years are only ahead of him. It's rare to find a player with his skill and it's even more difficult to find a player of similar age with a resume like his. There was speculation of him being traded all summer but as of right now, it doesn't look like he is going anywhere and that's probably the best move long-term. There are a lot of signs which indicate that Skinner will have a "rebound" campaign next year and the Canes will be glad they kept him.

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Top 25 Under 25: #4 Elias Lindholm

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

Position: Center/Right Wing
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 192 lbs.
Drafted:
1st Round, 2013 Draft
Age: 18
Last Year's Ranking: NR

Elias Lindholm
Season Age Team Lge GP G A Pts P/G
2010-11 16 Brynas J18 J18 Elite 22 10 28 38 1.727
2011-12 17 Brynas J20 SuperElit 36 14 35 49 1.361
2012-13 18 Brynas SHL 48 11 19 30 0.625

When it came time to think about how the Hurricanes should use the #5 pick, most believed that they would take whoever was "leftover" from the consensus top five.Those players being Seth Jones, Jonathan Drouin, Nathan MacKinnon, Aleksander Barkov and Valeri Nichushkin. Most scouts and hockey minds had these players as the guys who had the potential to be elite at the NHL level and some of the best prospects to come out of their respective leagues in years. However, when the time came for the Hurricanes to make their pick, they ended up passing on Nichushkin (who fell all the way to #10), and selected another high-end player in forward Elias Lindholm. 

Since most of the pre-draft buzz was about guys like Nichushkin, Jones & Nurse, Lindholm didn't receive a ton of press and selecting him at #5 came as a surprise to some fans. There was a group who saw him as another "small and safe" pick and a missed opportunity to add an elite talent to the club. It's a shame that some saw Lindholm this way because he, like the projected "big five," is one of the best prospects to come from his country in years and should be an excellent NHL player very soon.

Lindholm is considered an "advanced" player for his age because he doesn't have any real holes in his game and has already played a contributing role at the professional level. The Swedish Elite League is obviously at a lower tier than what he'll face in the NHL, but it's still rare to find a teenager with this kind of pedigree and it speaks well of his ability to make the jump to the NHL within the next couple of years. Lindholm played 48 games with Brynas of the Swedish Elite League last year and while a lot of junior-age players struggle to produce at that level, Lindholm had 30 points in 48 games, ranking third on his team and first among teenage players in the Swedish Hockey League.

What made Lindholm fit in so well in the pros, though? To put it simply, he is a complete player who contributes in all three zones and is one of the smartest prospects in this year's draft class. Lindholm's skating, passing and terrific vision give him a skill-set that would make him a fit on any team's first or second line, but his strong defensive game and hockey sense is what separates Lindholm from other prospects. He plays a sound game away from the puck, makes great reads in both the neutral & defensive zone and uses his stick well to break up passes. Lindholm is also not shy about playing in front of the net or forcing turnovers along the boards despite not being the strongest guy on the ice. 

Getting skilled, young players to contribute in areas that don't show up on the scoresheet is usually a challenge, but Lindholm has already done that on a professional stage, which is why he was considered a "safe" pick and close to being ready for the NHL. If he makes the Hurricanes out of camp, he could slide into a third line role and eventually work his way into a top-six role as he gets older. Although, you might be able to make the argument that he is ready now.

As a natural center, most expect him to play on the third line on the Hurricanes with the Staal brothers manning the top two spots, but playing him at right wing is also an option. That is where he played for most of last season and he was used in a pretty big role too. He was used on both the power play and penalty kill and had a few nights where his ice time reached over 20 minutes. I'm not sure if he'll be able to handle that kind of workload as a teenager in the NHL, but he is considered mature and advanced for his age so he might be ready for top-six minutes as soon as next year. The decision will come down to whether or not they want his contract to start now, making him a free agent much earlier in his career than he would be otherwise.

My guess is that the Hurricanes will keep Lindholm if he doesn't look out of place after 10 games and is able to find some sort of role in the lineup. The Canes have too much money committed to the roster to have a rebuilding season and it makes more sense to put together the best team possible instead of holding it off for another year. I might be singing a different tune if the Canes have an awful first ten games, though because then it wouldn't make much sense to burn a year of his contract.

That being said, Lindholm has all of the tools ot be a an excellent two-way forward at the NHL level and we should see some glimpses of that within the next few months. His game reminds me a lot of Sean Couturier, the Philadelphia Flyers first round pick from 2011, in that he might not be a top-line player right off the bat but his two-way play makes him good enough to play in the pros. Both players also possesses a terrific offensive skillset and that part of their game should slowly come around as they get older. Lindholm is never going to be someone who leads the NHL in scoring, but he is someone who can play an excellent game in all three zones and these players can be incredibly valuable. Factor in Lindholm's offensive upside and he could turn out to be a top-tier player in his early/mid 20's. 

So, while Lindholm was a "safe" pick, he may turn out to be the best option available if he turns out as good as advertised. He certainly has the skillset, talent and the drive to be a terrific NHL player and now it is all a matter of finding out when he will be at this level full-time.

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Having "too many centers"

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

What do Eric Staal, Jiri Tlusty, Jordan Staal, Jeff Skinner, Tuomo Ruutu, Jeremy Welsh, Nathan Gerbe, Riley Nash and Zac Dalpe have in common? They're all natural centers and only three of them have stayed that position throughout their careers. There's a good chance that at least 50% of the forwards currently in the NHL have played center at one point in their careers and most teams like to stock up on guys who can play this position. The Hurricanes are sort of in this "dilemma" as they have a lot of natural centers on their roster and it's not a terrible position to be in. Most centers have experience playing on the wing and can be moved over if needed and a lot of them, like Patrick Kane, end up as wingers for most of their careers.

Another natural center who has experience on the wing is Carolina's first round pick Elias Lindholm, who many have penciled in as the third line center for next year. He is a natural center, but spent most of last season as a right winger for Brynas in the Swedish Elite League. I'm not sure what the reason was for moving him over, but Lindholm did not take a lot of draws and spent most of last year flanking one of Brynas' top two lines. Some Canes fans didn't see the point in adding another center with the Staal Brothers locked up of the next few years, but Lindholm has experience playing other positions and may not stay a center forever. The same could also be said for the Staal brothers, who have also been moved around a bit during their careers. 

What is the motive behind moving a center to wing, though? The Hurricanes aren't going to make Lindholm a winger just because they can, not if he is a good fit as a center and they aren't going to do that with the Staal brothers either. A common misconception is that a player will be moved over from center if he is bad at taking draws or is more of a goal-scorer than a play-maker. Winning faceoffs is only part of the job for a center, though and there is no rule saying that a center has to be a play-maker of his line (see John Tavares & Jeff Carter). The responsibilities of a center stretch to all three zones and it requires someone with strong hockey sense and a decent two-way ability to play this position.

In addition to taking draws, a center is usually the first guy back in the defensive zone when on the back check and he is also the one who helps dictates where his linemates are supposed to go while playing in the offensive zone. A center doesn't have to be the primary puck-handler on his line (see Tyler Bozak & Phil Kessel), but he is an important part of what type of play his team will run. A center who is more of a goal-scorer (Steven Stamkos) will probably move towards the center of the ice while his linemates work along the boards. However, someone like Ryan Getzlaf or Nicklas Backstrom will likely go along the half-boards or behind the net to set-up a play instead. This normally depends on the team's system and forechecking strategy, though. 

For years, Eric Staal was the team's main puck-handler and play-driver on the first line but that changed a little last season with the addition of Alexander Semin. Staal is still responsible for being the first guy back in the event of a turnover, but Semin was leading a lot of team's rushes into the zone last season, which allowed Staal to find open spaces and get more scoring opportunities than he had in some recent seasons. Staal still did most of the things you would expect from a center, though and one thing he has gotten considerably better at is winning draws.

Staal was a notoriously bad faceoff guy for most of his career, but this part of his game has improved a lot over the past two seasons. He was actually one of the team' best draw takers last year, which is somewhat encouraging. Staal won a higher percentage of his even strength faceoffs than most of the team's regular centers  and was also very good on the power play.

  ESFO% PPFO% PKFO%
E. Staal 52.4% 53.5% 41.2%
J. Staal 49.9% 58.9% 45.1%
Nash 44.6% 55.6% 22.2%
Jokinen 61.4% 47.8% 55.0%
Brent 49.3% 71.4% 60.9%
Dwyer 31.4% 50.0% 50.0%

Winning faceoffs is only part of the equation, though which is why you'll see a lot of players stay at center despite not being able to win faceoffs and vice versa. Jussi Jokinen is an excellent faceoff guy but had issues as the Canes third line center because he was being used with weak linemates, which sort of decreases his value as a center. You want your centers to make the players around them better and while Jokinen is a good player, he isn't the type who can elevate the play of his linemates. Put him with wingers who can score and he is golden (see Skins & Finns line), but he'll have issues putting up offense if he is used with grinders like he was before being traded to Pittsburgh. This why he was s better fit as a winger in the Canes top-six rather than the third line center, or at least that was the case last season. Jokinen's strong faceoff prowess and defensive acumen were still there, but his point-production dwindled because he couldn't develop chemistry with a revolving door of linemates. This is what separates him from other great centers.

Staal had trouble with faceoffs and defensive play in his early years, but he stayed at center because he did everything else so well, especially in the neutral zone and along the boards. He could still produce offense and give the Hurricanes first-line level production at even strength despite playing with wingers who weren't exactly ideal. Guys like Erik Cole, Chad LaRose, Jiri Tlusty and even Jussi Jokinen himself had career seasons playing alongside Staal and it's just a few examples of how his offensive value as a center made up for his flaws in other areas.

However, there were times when Paul Maurice would move Staal to the wing to help him break out of a scoring slump and this is another reason why I think it's never a bad idea to have a lot of centers. As I said earlier, Staal is not the best defensive player, so moving him to the wing gave him a little more freedom to roam and be aggressive in the offensive zone while someone like Brandon Sutter took over the defensive responsibilities that came with playing in the middle. The Canes didn't exactly have the personnel to do this often, but it was experimented with a few times in the past and it wouldn't surprise me if they try it this season if he falls into a rut. I could actually see Staal moving to the wing full-time as he gets older with Lindholm or Jordan taking over the 1C role, but that may not be until years down the road. Still, the option is there because the Hurricanes currently have three excellent players who can play center.

This can also be applied to the lower lines, especially when it comes to taking defensive zone draws. Many teams liek put two centers on the same line in the event that one of them gets kicked out of the circle. The Bruins had a lot of success doing this, as their roster has no shortage of centers. Their third and fourth lines usually consistented of two or three pivots, which really helped them in terms of faceoffs. It also gave their roster a lot more flexibility, as they could move things around more often than other teams when a shake-up was needed. While Patrice Bergeron & David Krejci stayed at center for most of the time, guys like Tyler Seguin, Rich Peverley, Chris Kelly and Gregory Campbell got moved around a little bit. There were even some games where they moved Krejci to wing with Kelly or Seguin taking his spot on the first line.

Last year's Stanley Cup Champions, the Chicago Blackhawks, have also been known to play around with their center depth. Two of their best wingers, Patrick Kane & Patrick Sharp, are natural centers and they've also moved around guys like Andrew Shaw and Jamal Mayers over the last couple of years. The New York Rangers and Ottawa Senators are also are a couple other successful teams who have had to move guys around due to having depth at center.

The point here is that having a lot of centers gives your team versatility and that's never a bad thing. This is why I was a fan of drafting Elias Lindholm, even though he probably won't get above the third line in his rookie season. He showed this past season that he is willing to play a different position and had a pretty solid year for an 18-year-old outside of that, so the option to move him over is there. The Hurricanes can also do this to help round out their bottom-six depth. Riley Nash, Jeremy Welsh, Nathan Gerbe, Brett Sutter, Nicolas Blanchard and a couple other players in their system are all natural centers and shouldn't be constrained to the fourth line pivot spot if they're good enough to make the team.

We've seen other teams role more than one center on their fourth line and have it turn out well, so there's no sense in at least not trying it with the bottom-six. With the team being close to the cap, you want to make the best out of what you have and if that means having a couple extra centers then so be it.

 

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