Hurricanes NCAA Prospect End of Season Update

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

The Frozen Four is currently ongoing and unfortunately, no Carolina prospect's respective teams made the finals. They had a couple of players go pretty far into the tournament, though and now that their season is over, we're going to take a look at how they've performed this season. With the exception of Danny Biega, all of Carolina's NCAA prospects are underclassmen who weren't playing big roles on the team, so their production might seem a little underwhelming, but keep in mind that these players are also very young. It's also worth noting that the Canes have signed two of these four players, the most recent being Wisconsin sophomore and 2013 fifth round pick Brendan Woods.

Woods' Wisconsin Badgers had themselves a very good season in winning the WCHA tournament before getting eliminated in the first round of the NCAA tourney by UMass-Lowell. The run that Wisconsin pulled off is pretty impressive after they started off the season on a rough note. The Badgers won 11 out of their last 15 games and Woods played an important role in their resurgence, recording nine points in Wisconsin's last 16 games. He also had two assists in the Badgers win over Minnesota-Duluth in the WCHA semi-finals. Woods' team had a great season, what about the rest of Carolina's NCAA pool?

Prospect Team GP G A Pts SOG PIM Shots/Gm
Phil Di Giuseppe Michigan 40 9 19 28 110 32 2.75
Danny Biega Harvard 32 2 9 11 85 27 2.65625
Brendan Woods Wisconsin 37 5 7 12 61 47 1.648649

Di Giuseppe is the player here with the most potential and he had a bit of a disappointing season, along with most of Michigan's team. He spent most of the season on the first line and didn't put up terribly good boxcar numbers for his ice-time, although he finished fifth on his team in points. Di Giuseppe didn't have much trouble when it came to creating offense since he was third on the team in shots on goal and averaged nearly three shots per game, so poor shooting luck could have contributed to his low goal total. He is also only 19 years old and didn't sign his ELC, so next year should be something to look forward to for him. Di Giuseppe has good size and can be an effective winger at the next lf he continues to improve. His team actually made quite a resurgence in the final part of the season after playing so poorly for most of the year, making it all the way to the CCHA finals.

While Di Giuseppe will probably return to school next season, the other two players will be in the pros as both Danny Biega and Brendan Woods have signed their entry-level contracts. Biega did so a couple weeks ago and has already played one game with the Charlotte Checkers. Unfortunately, he was also injured in that game and hasn't played since. Biega also had a bit of an underwhelming senior year at Harvard after being a point-per-game player the year before. As a team, Harvard struggled a lot this season so Biega wasn't the only one who had a down year. He was also able to get a lot of shots on goal for a defenseman, ranking third on his team. Biega had a down season but still has a lot of talent, so I'm looking forward to what he can do with the Hurricanes in the coming years. He should be able to get some decent minutes on Charlotte's blue-line next season.

Woods also signed his entry-level deal and I was a little surprised that he did it so early because he was only a sophomore and is a very recent draft pick. He also spent most of this season as a 2nd and 3rd line center for the Badgers and would have had a chance to get more ice-time next year if he stayed in school. We will likely be seeing him in Charlotte next year, too as that team continues to be younger but I still think he is a ways away from being in the NHL. If he manages to get that far, he probably has a future as a bottom-six player more than anything else. Woods spent a fair bit of time on the Badgers penalty kill last year, has good defensive instincts and is very good at faceoffs, so he could parlay that skillset into a professional career in the right situation. Woods is also the son of Anaheim Ducks assistant head coach Bob Woods and you can never go wrong with drafting a coach's kid. 

Not listed above is goaltender Collin Olson, who was the Hurricanes sixth round pick from this year. Olson played in only nine games this season, so there isn't much that is known about him other than his .901 save percentage in those games. Ohio State was in a battle for the post-season for most of the second-half of the year and they gave most of the starts to senior Brady Hjelle, who had one of the best save percentages in the CCHA so he likely wasn't going to steal the job away from him. He should be getting more starts for the Buckeyes next year and there will be more known about him then. Goaltenders in general take a long time to develop and the Hurricanes took two in their most recent draft, so it will probably be a long process with them.

With Woods and Biega signing, there aren't going to be many Carolina prospects in the college rankings next year but hopefully that changes in this coming draft. it's looking like the Canes will have a high pick, so that will be a chance to add some more young talent into the system.

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Game 40 By the Numbers: Hurricanes at Capitals

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

We are at the point of the season where the Hurricanes are playing for draft position and all winning will do is impact that negatively. The fact that it got to this point is sad, but this is what happens when you manage to win only one out of fifteen games during the most important time of the year. I'm not the type of person who roots for a team to tank the rest of the season but wins and losses are all but meaningless right now, so all I am going to be looking from here on out is for the Canes to play well and try to salvage anything from a dismal season. No one wanted it to end up this way, but getting an elite talent out of this year's draft could make the frustration from this season meaningless in the long-run.

With all of that in mind, you couldn't help but want to see the Hurricanes pull one out against Washington last night because it was a game that they played well enough to win. They obviously didn't play a flawless game, but they produced over 25 scoring chances and got a great performance in net from Justin Peters, so this was a good opportunity for the Canes to get out of this funk. The one thing that kept them from winning this game was the play of Washington goaltender Braden Holtby, who stopped 43 of the 44 shots he saw to steal this game for the Caps. I know the excuse of "running into a hot goalie" is getting old, but what else can you say about last night's game? The Canes played a solid game, put forth a great effort and probably deserved better than the result they got. That's just how things have been working out for them this season, though. Either the goaltending takes them out of games early and when they actually do get good goaltending, they can't buy a goal at the other end. 

Losing isn't the worst thing in the world at this point in the year, but when you have only one win in your last 15 games, it's really frustrating to watch defeats like this from a fan's perspective and the players are likely even more frustrated right now.

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Carolina's PDO Nightmare Revisted

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

A few days ago, I wrote on the subject of PDO and how it has gone downhill for the Hurricanes over these last few weeks. It basically showed that the Hurricanes have been going through a stretch of awful luck lately and that the team is better than what they have showed during this losing streak. In a full season, PDO regresses toward the mean of 1.000 for most teams, but this is obviously not a normal season and there was bound to be some fluky things happening. Take the Toronto Maple Leafs for instance, they are currently shooting at over 10% at even strength and while that will probably crash back down to Earth in a full year, it's enough to propel them into the playoffs now. Same with the Ottawa Senators, who have a team save percentage of over .930 and are in good position to make the playoffs despite losing their two best players. If not for their unreal goaltending, they probably wouldn't be in this situation. Luck is going to play a huge factor this year, which is why I'm hestiant to overreact to whatever the results are.

That being said, the Hurricanes recent skid is something that would get them into trouble even during a full-season. Every team has 8-9 game stretches where they can't buy a goal or go through a bad losing streak, but when you win only one game out of 13, that's going to put you in a hole no matter what. The Hurricanes underlying numbers from this season might show that they are a good team, but it's hard to call what we are seeing right now a "good team that's just unlucky." There has to be more to it than this.

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Game 39 by the Numbers: Penguins at Hurricanes

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

Since this is a little delayed, I figured that I should try out a new experiment with my statistical recaps instead of just going over the scoring chances. I usually track those every game and present them here to show who had the edge in the territorial battle, but that's only one part of what I've been tracking all season. One goal that hockey statisticians have aimed to accomplish for years is to quantify every part of the game and while doing that here is feasibly impossible (only so much work one person can do), there's a lot of information that I chart down during games but I don't share a lot of in my recaps because there is a lot of stuff I can't track live. School reasons kept me from watching this game, so I was able to get everything tracked for this game and will share it with you all after the jump.

As for the game itself, it was yet another loss and the Hurricanes were overpowered by a superior Penguins team. They actually managed to hang tough with them for most of the game and took the lead in the third period, but the Pens were able to get a couple of quick goals and coast away with the win. This was far from the Hurricanes worst performance of the losing streak but they were clearly not the better team and deserved the loss. Not much else to say about this one, but I'll let the numbers do the talking.

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Game 38 By the Numbers: Hurricanes at Bruins

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

Once again, the Canes were facing a team that did not bring their best game but were on the receiving end of another blowout loss because they could get a timely save from either of their goalies or buy a goal at the other end. This is the same thing that has happened to them over the last four weeks or so and the whole process is getting tiring because the outcome of most of their games is becoming too predictable. It doesn't matter how well the Canes played in terms of territorial domination or scoring chances because the fact that they can't score and are getting below-replacement level goaltending completely nullifies that, which is exactly what went wrong last night.

The Hurricanes actually started this game on a very strong note. Their game-plan was to forecheck strong, make it difficult for Boston to exit their zone and create chances off forcing turnovers & winning board battles. They did a fine job of this to start the game by getting five consecutive scoring chances in the first three and a half minutes. Then the Bruins were able to generate a transition chance the other way and scored on their second shot of the game after Justin Peters lost track of a rebound that Rich Peverley deposited underneath him. This didn't seem to phase Carolina that much, though as they continued to tran Boston in their own zone for the next few minutes of the game. Then the Bruins got another transition chance and Brad Marchand scored after Peters failed to control another rebound in the crease.

When you have a good start but can't score and end up trailing 2-0 or 3-0 thanks to terrible goaltending, it deflates the entire team and the Hurricanes obviously didn't recover from it last night. Add in Tuukka Rask giving the Bruins the early saves they needed and the team's confidence was shot heading into the first intermission. They continued to battle for the rest of the game, but it was an uphill climb and the game was far out of reach by the time the Hurricanes finally put home their first goal of the game. It's been the same old story for the past two weeks and I'm at a loss for words at what needs to be done about this.

The Hurricanes are basically a PDO nightmare right now and have been for the last couple of weeks. The goaltending has fallen apart since Dan Ellis injured his leg and rushed back from it and they aren't scoring right now either. The team is getting chances, but not finishing and I'm not sure what else they can do about that. They are stuck with Ellis/Peters for the time being and the goals just aren't coming no matter who they are facing in net. It's made every recent game look like a disaster scene and how to fix it is anyone's guess.

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Explaining Jamie McBain's recent struggles

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

After going most of the season without a collective scapegoat, Hurricanes fans seemed to have found one in defenseman Jamie McBain. The entire team is struggling right now, but he has been taking a lot of heat from the fans ever since Carolina went on their brutal losing streak. The hate reached a new high after his brutal showing against the Winnipeg Jets two weeks ago where he was on-ice for two goals against, one of which he put in his own net. Most of the criticism he has been taking lately has been deserved since his mistakes are costing the team a lot more right now and he has the tendency to get caught in no-man's land more than others. He has also been on-ice for seven even strength goals in his last nine games after being on-ice for only seven in his first 20.

Like I said earlier, the entire team is struggling right now but McBain seems to be a step behind the entire team right now for whatever reason. Some say that he has never been good, but it wasn't too long ago when people were talking about how he had the highest plus-minus rating among the defense corps and how he has become better defensively than in year's past. His underlying numbers also show that he hasn't been terribly better or worse than he was last season, so why is it now that everyone wants him run out of town? Personally, I think it all relates back to Justin Faulk's injury and how McBain's role has changed since then.

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Fallen on hard times: Carolina's PDO decline

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

It was only a month ago when the Hurricanes were in the driver's seat in the Southeast Division and basically all they needed to do was gain points in a little under 60% of their games to make it in. Since that point, the Canes have gone 3-11-1 and are now in the running for a top-five pick rather than a playoff spot. This free fall was something that even I didn't see coming because, as I have often reiterated here, the Hurricanes have been one of the better teams in the NHL at controlling puck-possession this season. This is usually what leads to success in the NHL, but not all the time. Goaltending, shooting luck and injuries are going to keep some good teams out of the playoffs this year because there are fewer games to make up for lost ground. The Hurricanes have been hit especially hard by the injury bug this year, but they've also seen a lot of other things go wrong for them as of late. This is evidenced by taking a look at their PDO over the season. 

For those who don't know what PDO is, it's the sum of a team's even strength shooting and save percentages and shows how lucky or unlucky a team has gotten. A PDO over 1.000 shows that a team has gotten very fortunate while a team with a PDO under 1.00 shows that they may have gotten a few bounces that have gone against them. Carolina's PDO has stayed stagnant for most of the year, but recently it has taken a nose dive. Looking at it over five-game segments shows this team's fall from grace pretty well.

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Game 37 By the Numbers: Rangers at Hurricanes

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

Last night's game was a good chance for the Hurricanes to get a win. They were going up against a Rangers team who just played an overtime game the previous night, had to travel and were starting the same goalie in a back-to-back situation on top of that. This seemed like a good chance for the Canes to right the sinking ship that is their season, but as you probably know, nothing has been going their way as of late and that trend continued last night. They outplayed a tired Rangers team during five-on-five play and ended up losing 4-1 because of a few reasons with the biggest one being the reigning Vezina Trophy winner Henrik Lundqvist. He was a brick wall last night, stopping 48 of 49 shots and 27 of 28 scoring chances. Goalies usually perform poorly in back-to-back starts, but I guess that rule doesn't apply to the King.

If you had flashbacks to the Tampa Bay game where Ben Bishop stoned the Hurricanes then I don't blame you because Lundqvist was just as good, if not better. It might be a tough sell to fans to say that goaltending was the difference in a 4-1 loss, but it was when you consider how much the Hurricanes controlled play at even strength. The Canes did basically everything they could to beat Lundqvist and couldn't solve him until the third period when they were already trailing 3-0. When you are facing a goalie who is playing as well as Lundqvist, the margin for error becomes smaller and smaller by the game, which makes mistakes like Dan Ellis vacating the net to give Ryan Callahan an open goal to shoot at hurt so much more.

That's just the way things have gone for the Hurricanes as of late, though. They managed to put up a huge offensive performance without their best winger in the lineup and don't get rewarded for it because they ran into an elite goaltender. It's frustrating to watch from a fan's standpoint and I can bet the players are probably even more infuriated with how the last three games have turned out. The Hurricanes probably deserved better than the 4-1 loss they took but they also made a lot of mistakes to help seal their fate.

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Canes still searching for depth scoring

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

15 goals. That is all the Hurricanes have gotten from players not in their top-six this season and it's probably even lower than that if you take away special teams goal. Scoring depth is something that I did not think would be a problem for the Canes this year, but it's a pretty big issue right now. Their top line has accounted for a little under 45% of the team's overall goals and 33 of the 55 non-empty net goals they've scored during five-on-five play. As nice as it is to have a potent first line, the other players really need to produce to help take some of the burden on them. 

The Hurricanes might possess one of the best first lines in the NHL right now, but they aren't going to score every night, so the other lines are going to need to pick up the slack and they haven't done that lately. Jordan Staal's line with Jeff Skinner are somewhat guilty of this, too but I'm more willing to give them a pass because they have been productive in terms of creating scoring chances. The third and fourth lines, however, have not been so innocent.

The last time a Hurricanes third liner produced a goal was on March 16th against the Washington Capitals when Patrick Dwyer deflected in a point shot from Jay Harrison and the ONLY time a Carolina fourth liner scored came all the way back in early February when Tim Wallace scored against the Islanders. The Canes bottom two lines have gone through a lot of changes this year, but when you have only one total goal all season from an entire line, then that's not good. Even if a lot of fourth lines aren't depended on for scoring. Compare the Hurricanes scoring numbers with the rest of the league and you can see that they lean on their top-six a lot more than the majority of the NHL.

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Game 35 By the Numbers: Capitals at Hurricanes

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

This is coming a few days late thanks to Game Center Live's 48-hour blackout rule, but I just wanted to get the scoring chance numbers from the Washington game up so that everyone can see them. It was one of the few games of the losing streak that Carolina probably "deserved" to win but ended up on the losing end because of a terrible performance in net by Justin Peters & Dan Ellis. Despite greatly outplaying Washington for two-thirds of the game, the Canes were trailing 5-3 and then Washington was able to settle things down and force the Canes to play their game. The Canes were guilty of some bad defensive breakdowns on a couple of the Washington goals, but they had limited the Caps to only 19 shots & 11 scoring chances. Allowing five goals on that kind of a workload is inexcusable on any goalie's part.

The Hurricanes played a good game but got a bad result and I was hoping they could at least build off this for Thursday night against Tampa Bay, which did not happen obviously.

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