It's easy to pin this one on Ward because he let in a couple of soft goals and was far from being in form, but the team in front of him was twice as bad and it's hard to put 100% of the blame on him when you look at how poorly the Hurricanes were outplayed.

Fenwick Timeline from Extra Skater

Carolina attempted only five shots during even strength play in that third period.Think about that. In a little under 20 minutes of hockey, the Hurricanes only attempted to get a shot on goal five times. They were playing with a lead for a portion of that frame but that still speaks to how badly they were outplayed in this game. It's not like they don't match up well with the Devils either because they played a solid game against them on Wednesday night. This was just a bad effort all around, save for the second period. The Devils dressed a better lineup by having Damien Brunner & Anton Volchenkov fill-in for Cam Janssen and Peter Harrold respectively, but that still doesn't excuse the terrible third period from the Hurricanes. You aren't going to win many games while producing such little offense.

Scoring Chances

This is one of those games where the scoring chances line up with the shot report, only it's a little harder on the Canes first period play, and rightfully so. They were very lucky to exit that frame down only one goal and Ward had to come up big a few times early in the period to prevent the Devils from taking control of the game early. Carolina did play well in the second period and seemed to have an answer to the Devils defensive strategy, but they couldn't sustain it through the third period and were bulldozed in that frame. Ward letting in a few soft goals didn't help, but the team in front of him really didn't give him any help whatsoever. They were doubled up in chances and outshot by 20 at even strength. That is awful.

Hurricanes Individual Scoring Chances

Hurricanes On-Ice Scoring Chances

Best EV Forward: Riley Nash +1

Worst EV Forwards: Jordan Staal, Drayson Bowman & Manny Malhotra -5

Best EV Defensemen: Jay Harrison & Brett Bellemore -1

Worst EV Defensemen: Ron Hainsey & Justin Faulk -4

Not having Andrej Sekera in the lineup was a huge loss for Carolina, as the Hainsey/Faulk pairing was torn up at even strength. Hainsey has been the team's best defenseman this year and has played well enough to earn top pairing minutes, but he did not look comfortable at all last night. He was scrambling around in his own zone and had to resort to desperation plays to keep up with forwards. He also made a lot more mistakes and turned the puck over way more times than we are used to seeing. I don't know what was up with him, but some might point to this as evidence of Hainsey not being a top-pairing defenseman. I'll buy that, but he was facing the same forwards he saw on Wednesday night and playing with a superior defense partner, so him struggling this much was perplexing to say the very least.

Hainsey's normal partner, Brett Bellemore, had a commendable effort last night because he had to play with Mike Komisarek and managed to not be destroyed at even strength. Bellemore had to bail his partner out a few times with some key blocks and defensive plays to deny potential chances for the Devils. He was easily the better half of this defense pairing but I'm sure most could have predicted that. The bad news is that Bellemore was the bright spot on defense and the rest of the blue-liners struggled mightily. Hainsey/Faulk were at the top of the list and Murphy/Harrison also had their problems. Komisarek was also torched on Jaromir Jagr's goal, as he was caught flat-footed in the neutral zone against one of New Jersey's best forwards.

The entire defense had a rough night and the forwards weren't much better, although the fact that they generated only seven even strength scoring chances should tell you that. Eric Staal & Riley Nash's lines were the only ones producing any offense and Nash had some key mistakes. He was benched after taking a hooking penalty in the third period and lost a board battle which led to Mark Fayne's goal. Of course, that goal could have been easily avoided had Jeff Skinner not fleed the defensive zone early while NJ still had possession of the puck. That poor decision really put the Hurricanes in a hole early, but Skinner did his part to make up for it by scoring the game-tying goal early in the second.

The errors by Skinner & Nash were costly, but these two were actually some of Carolina's "better" forwards in this game. At least in comparison to everyone else, because Jordan's line had a terrible night and so did Malhotra's. Jordan scored a huge breakaway goal during four-on-four play but he didn't do anything at five-on-five play and his linemates were held without a shot on goal all game. Dwyer is normally so effective on this line but he was invisible against New Jersey and so was Tlusty. This line was also outshot against New Jersey on Wednesday night and I'm starting to wonder if Tlusty being moved here has anything to do with it. I don't know what he could do to be a possession anchor, but Eric's line was getting pummeled at evens while he was playing on it and the same has happened with Jordan. It's kind of strange, and worrisome.

Devils Individual Scoring Chances

Devils On-Ice Scoring Chances

Best EV Forwards: Steve Bernier & Andrei Loktionov +3

Worst EV Forwards: Mattias Tedenby & Adam Henrique +1

Best EV Defenseman: Marek Zidlicky +5

Worst EV Defensemen: Jon Merrill & Eric Gelinas +1

New Jersey had a pretty balanced attack with the Zajac & Loktionov lines leading the way. Their depth forwards also performed well, producing a handful of chances and not giving anything up in their own end. That's more than you can so for a lot of other team's fourth lines. Their defense also had a solid game all-around, although Gelinas & Zidlicky had a couple of hiccups on both Carolina goals.

Head-to-Head at Five-on-Five

The two big matchups Carolina lost were Jordan's line & Faulk/Hainsey against New Jersey's top-six. The fourth line was also crushed by Loktionov and the only matchup Carolina won was when their first line was out against Volchenkov & Merrill. Carolina's foruth line is normally a lot better against weaker matchups, so this was a disappointing performance on their part. Although, the fact that they saw a lto fo New Jersey's third line while Nash was benched probably didn't help.

5v5 Zone Entries

Hurricanes

Carolina could not get anything going through the neutral zone in this game and it really didn't matter how they tried to get through the Devils defense. Dumping the puck in was a lot less effective, but the Canes didn't exactly make the most of their controlled entries either. The only time they could produce offense were when Jordan, Skinner & Gerbe carried the puck into the zone and these three combined for only nine zone entries, so that kind of tells you why Carolina was held to only seven five-on-five chances. It is kind of interesting that the first line was Carolina's best territorial unit despite Tuomo Ruutu & Eric Staal having no controlled entries, though.

Devils

New Jersey dominated the neutral zone, carrying the puck in 52% of the time and producing two goals through transitional play. They had someone who could regularly carry the puck in on all four lines and the Devils were able to generate at least one or two shot attempts off those rushes. Jagr is knownf or being one of the best players in the league at neutral zone play, but two players who stick out to me here are Ryan Carter & Michael Ryder. These two led the Devils in total and controlled entries while playing bottom-six minutes and New Jersey was able to produce a decent amount of offense on their rushes. The Devils don't have a lot of star power in their lineup, but their forward depth is pretty impressive on paper and Carolina saw it in action in this game.

5v5 Zone Exits

Hurricanes

How much did Carolina miss Andrej Sekera? A lot. The Hurricanes defense corps isn't blessed with many puck-movers as it is and the unit they dressed last night advanced the play on only 18% of their zone exit attempts. Not that Sekera is Keith Yandle, but when you replace him with someone like Mike Komisarek, the defense is going to have a very tough time moving the puck forward. Although, it didn't help that Ron Hainsey, normally above-average in this category, had his worst game as a Hurricane. He deferred to Faulk on most of his zone exit attempts and turned the puck over on nearly half of his breakouts. Better days are ahead for him, hopefully. Murphy also had a down game for his standards.

Devils

With the exception of the Zidlicky/Gelinas pairing, the Devils defense corps was very good at exciting the zone. Greene/Fayne were easily their best pairing, as they were trusted to handle the puck a lot and advanced the play on nearly 30% of their attempts. Merrill & Volchenkov also had a solid game with limited puck touches. I wasn't sure if Volchenkov was an upgrade over Peter Harrold, but Volchenkov did a solid job of not getting trapped in his own zone and, unlike Harrold, he didn't commit any turnovers.

The Canes are in a position where their season can go in either direction because a decent run or winning streak can put them right in the thick of playoff contention. On the other hand, a bad losing streak can easily put them into lottery territory, especially with how weak the Metropolitan Division is right now. This is where looking at the underlying numbers can come in handy, as they should give us an idea of how the rest of Carolina's season can go. Are the Hurricanes on the verge of a winning streak or are they prone to regress even further?

Unfortunately, the numbers don't have a lot of positive things to say about how the Hurricanes have been playing this year. I've mentioned countless times that they have been a bad possession team and it's very tough to make the playoffs if you spent most games playing in your own zone. Some teams are able to get passed it if they have elite goaltending or amazing goal-scorers, but the Hurricanes have neither right now, so it might be a tough road ahead if things don't improve. Here's what their ability to control possession looks like through 25 games:

Carolina has controlled under 50% of the shot attempts, shots on goal and scoring chances for a good chunk of the season and they are well below that mark in all three categories right now. The only one where they have been somewhat decent in is shot attempts and that has really declined over the past 7-8 games or so. The most concerning thing about this graph is how little of the scoring chances Carolina has been able to control this year. I've mentioned a few times that the Canes have done a decent job of preventing scoring chances, but they struggle to create any of their own and as a result, they have controlled only 45-47% of the 5v5 scoring chances this year. Most coaching staffs will put more of a focus on scoring chances rather than shots or possession when it comes to analytics, but if you look at the graph, it's pretty easy to see the correlation between all three categories with how much the lines follow each other. Carolina's ability to control possession and shots might be a little better than chances, but the pattern for all three has stayed relatively the same.

The most frustrating thing about the way the Hurricanes have played this year is that they were a strong possession team for most of last year and their season fell down the drain because of terrible shooting luck, injuries, special teams and goaltending. Why has their five-on-five play fallen off so much in such a short period of time? There has been somewhat of a roster turnover from last year but most of the core pieces are still intact, so it's tough to figure out why the Hurricanes have regressed so much from last season, at least in terms of their ability to drive the play. A game-by-game look at their numbers does reveal some interesting things, though.

The Hurricanes have won the possession battle in only six games this year. That is pretty bad, but they were actually playing most of their opponents close for a good prtion of the year. They only started getting dominated at even strength on a regular basis over the last six games, the win over Ottawa being the exception. Prior to that, they were only outshot by 10 in only two games and were barely losing the possession battle. What happened six games ago? That was when someone named Alexander Semin got injured and he was Carolina's best territorial player. He also logs a ton of minutes, so it's easy to see why the Hurricanes even strength play went down the toilet after he got hurt.

With that said, there is still a lot of room for improvement, as the Hurricanes were getting outshot even with him in the lineup and the team's forward depth is still very poor. Losing an elite player like Semin and a goal-scorer of Jeff Skinner's caliber is tough to make up for, but this team always seems to have trouble making adjustments whenever any sort of significant injury happens and the lack of depth is a big reason for that. They had the same problems last season when Pitkanen, Skinner, Semin & Faulk all missed time with injuries.

The Hurricanes also have had the burden of playing some tough teams right out of the gate and it was really tough on them the last couple of weeks. The only teams they have won the possession battle against were Philadelphia (x2), Toronto, the Islanders, Anaheim & Ottawa. In other words, teams who have also been poor at controlling even strength play and they'll see more of these teams within the next month with games against Nashville, Toronto, Columbus, Edmonton and Calgary on the horizon. The Hurricanes getting outplayed by stronger teams is very concerning because it shows that this club is behind where they should be right now, but the fact that they've gotten out of the first 25 games with a record of 10-10-5 while playing against a lot of potential playoff teams isn't the worst thing in the world.

The next month is going to be pretty important for the Hurricanes because they are going to be playing against some teams who they should be able to at least break even against. If they can't do that and the losses begin to pile up, then it's probably time to panic. On the other hand, if they can make it to 2014 with a winning record and/or improve their even strength play, the Canes should remain in decent shape, depending on how the rest of the Metropolitan Division shakes out.

As most teams do when playing with a lead, Carolina opted to sit back for most of the third and the Devils gave them just about everything they could handle. They spent most of that period playing in Carolina's end and while the Hurricanes only surrendered nine shots, they had trouble getting the puck out of the zone and were getting severely outworked by the Devils. Carolina did a good job of limiting chances, but this goes back to the reoccurring problem with the team spending too much time defending and playing in their own end, which is going to result in bad things and the Devils nearly got a point because of it tonight. They scored twice in the third period and were an amazing save by Cam Ward away from tying the game. You can chalk Carolina's third period play up to them defending a three-goal lead, but this type of strategy isn't always the best thing to do and it might hurt them against teams with more offensive talent than New Jersey. 

Still, there was enough to be encouraged about from last night, as the Hurricanes outplayed a good possession team for 40 minutes and got two big points in the standings. A nice way to go into the Thanksgiving break before the two teams see each other in a rematch on Friday night.

Fenwick Timeline from Extra Skater

Patrick Dwyer's shorthanded goal came at a perfect time because the Devils were generating some pressure late in the second period before getting that power play. They could have easily made it a closer game before the third period, but Dwyer's goal gave the Hurricanes a big enough cushion for them to play a safer game the rest of the way. Carolina also started out the third period well, holding the Devils to no shots early on but it didn't take long for them to mount some offense and Carolina spent most of that period trying to fend them off. They looked like they were in survival mode for the last five minutes and needed Cam Ward to come up big a couple of times to preserve the regulation win.

Scoring Chances

This more or less reiterates the earlier chart, the only difference being that the Hurricanes were able to maintain an advantage in even strength scoring chances for the entire game. That's mostly because the Devils had two of their chances with the goalie pulled, including their third goal. Either way, the gist of it is that the Hurricanes started out well, outplayed the Devils through 40 minutes and let them get back into it in the third. They didn't allow too many chances despite getting vastly outshot, but that could have been a different story if the Devils didn't miss the net so often or try about 50% of their shots from the point. Carolina is playing well in the defensive zone, but they are still having trouble turning it into offense, especially after they get hemmed in, which is happening far too often.

Hurricanes Individual Scoring Chances

Hurricanes On-Ice Scoring Chances

Best EV Forwards: Drayson Bowman, Radek Dvorak & Manny Malhotra +3

Worst EV Forward: Elias Lindholm -3

Best EV Defenseman: Ron Hainsey +5

Worst EV Defensemen: Ryan Murphy & Jay Harrison -3

It's hard for a team to win when the fourth line carries most of the offense, but that was the case for the Hurricanes last night. Radek Dvorak, Manny Malhotra & Drayson Bowman produced two goals and were easily Carolina's best territorial unit, registering positive shot differentials despite taking no faceoffs in the offensive zone. Muller rewarded these three with top-nine minutes and they earned every second of them. I thought Dvorak played his best game as a Hurricane, as he had two key zone entries which resulted in goals for Carolina and produced two chances on top of that. Dvorak's had a tough time driving the play forward, but more nights like this out of him would be appreciated.

Also having a good night offensively was the first line of Eric Staal, Tuomo Ruutu & Nathan Gerbe, who produced another goal and had nearly 1/3 of Carolina's even strength chances. Ruutu's game has slowly been coming along these past few weeks and he seems to be stepping into Tlusty's old role as the "finisher" on this line. With Semin not on this line right now, Staal is drawing in a lot of defenders and it's opening up more space for Ruutu & Gerbe the last couple of games. If he can continue to find gaps in the defense and go to the scoring areas, Ruutu should be able to produce at a decnet rate.

Carolina's first and fourth lines coming up in the black last night was huge because both their second and third lines had rough nights. Jordan Staal was somewhat of a non-factor at even strength and Patrick Dwyer was the one leading most of the rushes & creating opportunities on his line. His shorthanded goal was obviously huge, but Dwyer had a lot more contributions beyond that including leading the team in shots. He is playing some great hockey right now and it's catching the eyes of the coaching staff.

Also catching the eye of the coaching staff tonight was Ron Hainsey, who had a terrific game and was rewarded with 21+ minutes of ice time. Hainsey was on the ice for only one scoring chance, which unfortunately was Jaromir Jagr's goal, but he and Brett Bellemore did a pretty amazing job at keeping the Devils offense quiet when they were on the ice. Bellemore had a slip-up in the neutral zone on Zajac's goal, but he did enough otherwise to have a good game. If there is one thing that I really like about him, it is that he seems to make up for most of his mistakes on the next try, even if that error ends up resulting in a goal against.

Andrej Sekera & Justin Faulk had big games offensively, with the former recording two secondary helpers and the latter scoring his first goal of the season. Faulk was especially good offensively, as he was on the ice for over half of Carolina's even strength scoring chances. However, these two were also on the ice for most of the Devils shots in the third period, which was a little concerning. They are obviously going to get most of the shutdown minutes, but the fact that they are getting hemmed this often is a problem.

New Jersey Devils Individual Scoring Chances

New Jersey Devils On-Ice Scoring Chances

Best EV Forwards: Andrei Loktionov & Dainius Zubrus +2

Worst EV Forwards: Patrik Elias, Mattias Tedenby & Jacob Josefson -2

Best EV Defensemen: Mark Fayne & Andy Greene +3

Worst EV Defensemen: Marek Zidlicky & Eric Gelinas -4

The Hurricanes caught Patrik Elias' line on an off-night, but the Jagr-Zajac-Zubrus line had a very solid game, producing seven scoring chances. They could have easily had a few more if Zubrus didn't fan on a couple of shots. Their third line was also very good and Michael Ryder was responsible for most of their chances. The Devils also saw a great game out of the Greene-Fayne defense pairing, who did a fantastic job of controlling scoring chances and giving Jordan Staal's line little room to operate. Unfortunately, all of that was undone by the Zidlicky/Gelinas defense pairing, who played against Eric's line for part of the game. The Merrill/Harrold pairing also struggled against Carolina's depth forwards and had some issues with getting the puck out of their own zone.

Head-to-Head at Five-on-Five

Going from the head-to-head reports on Extra Skater, DeBoer didn't really match up one line against another, but he did use the last change to his advantage a couple times. However, most of his top players lost the battle against Carolina's and his depth players didn't fare much better. The only line which New Jersey had a big advantage against was Nash's and that was negated by Malhotra's line winning most of their matchups.

5v5 Zone Entries

Hurricanes

This was probably the best performance Carolina has seen out of their fourth line all season. Dvorak, Malhotra & Bowman had 15 zone entries, five of them coming with control of the puck and two of them producing goals. There is only so much skill on this line, so dump-and-chase is usually their only option, but Dvorak & Bowman were able to do more and it really paid off, especially with the second & third lines having off-nights. On another note, the first line had control of the puck on all but two of their zone entries and as a team, the Hurricanes had control of about 47%. The Devils are really good at clogging the neutral zone and forcing teams to dump the puck in, so the Hurricanes did a decent job here, all things considered.

Devils

Zajac, Ryder, Zubrus, Henrique and Jagr did most of the heavy-lifting for the Devils in the neutral zone and Zubrus was the only one who had trouble gaining the line with control on a regular basis. I thought Jagr would have better numbers here, too but he was still able to carry the puck in on half of his entries. Most of the Devils forwards were able to win the battle in the neutral zone, but their defensemen combining for zero controlled entries brought down their team numbers.

5v5 Zone Exits

Hurricanes

Carolina's breakouts were ugly to watch, especially when they were led by a defenseman. Ryan Murphy and Jay Harrison were the only defense pairing to advance the puck on at least 20% of their attempts and the other pairings had to use a forward to help drive the play. That isn't a bad thing since the Devils are so good at taking the middle of the ice away, but the high number of turnovers is concerning. The fact that eight of them came from the Faulk/Sekera pairing is even more troublesome. That said, Carolina's forwards all did a pretty good job of carrying the play out of the zone and it really helped the team's transitional play in the first and second periods.

Devils

The Devils had a pretty good game overall in terms of being able to get the puck out of their own zone. I'm not sure how much of this is boosted by the third period where Carolina had no forecheck going, but their numbers are strong overall. The only pairing that struggled to get things moving forward were Zidlicky/Gelinas, who also posted some brutal scoring chance numbers. Harrold/Merrill were also a bit of an adventure in their own end at times, but the former made enough good plays to make up for it. New Jerseys forwards were also excellent at moving the puck out when they had to.

That said, there are poor possession teams who have been able to score at even strength despite being at a territorial disadvantage. Colorado, Columbus, Edmonton, Calgary, Toronto and Nashville have all scored at a higher goal-per-game rate than Carolina while being worse clubs at controlling territorial play. Why is this the case? One blogger's opinion would be that it all comes down to luck and that these teams have simply gotten more of it than the Canes have this year. After all, only the New York Rangers have posted a worse shooting percentage than Carolina at even strength this year and only two teams have a worse overall shooting percentage. It's hard to get much worse luck than that and it is hard to see the Hurricanes shooting at only 6.9% for an entire season.

However, this is where the earlier theory that the Hurricanes are taking a lot of "bad shots" comes into play. If the Hurricanes are a team that plays most of their game on the perimeter and doesn't consistently go to scoring areas, then it's easy to believe that their goal production will not improve much, especially if they continue to get outshot every night. Does the actual on-ice data match up with our observations, though?

Thanks to Sporting Charts new shot location heat maps, we can see where the Hurricanes are shooting the puck from this year and whether or not we can expect their goal total to improve.

Without further ado, let's look at where the Canes are shooting the puck from.

So, from the looks of this chart, crashing the net hasn't been a problem for the Hurricanes, as a good majority of their shots are coming from the net-mouth area. This reinforces the theory that bad shooting luck is what is troubling the Hurricanes offense right now. When you compare their shot chart to the St. Louis Blues, you'll notice some similarities in that both teams generate a lot of their shots from right in front of the net. The difference is that the Blues are finishing their chances while the Hurricanes are not. My guess is that that will change as the season goes on.

Although, one difference I'd like to point out with both teams is that the Blues have been taking a good chunk of shots from inside the faceoff circles while the Hurricanes are mainly just crashing the net and playing more of simpler game in the offensive zone. I've noticed that they are playing more of a north/south game this year and this chart sort of reinforces that belief since it suggest that the Hurricanes are taking shots from the point and trying to crash for rebounds. Without Jeff Skinner for most of the year and now Alex Semin on the shelf, this lineup is devoid of some skill so I wouldn't expect this to change much.

In the end, most of this comes down to poor puck luck and that usually improves as more games are played. Jordan Staal's line has been the victim of this for awhile now and it's very frustrating because they are the only unit that is driving possession right now. The goals should come for him, Gerbe & Dwyer eventually as long as they keep doing what they are doing, which is creating chances & pinning opponent's into their own zone. Jiri Tlusty is another player that is going through a shooting percentage slump, but he has also had trouble keeping the puck in the offensive zone, so it will be interesting to see how much he rebounds.

That last sentence can be applied to the rest of the Hurricanes, as well because the team as a whole has had trouble retrieving the puck and sustaining offense so it's very possible that their goal total will stay poor if this keeps up. However, Carolina's offense isn't nearly as bad as what their results currently show and things should improve a little in the coming months. 

They were able to salvage some good out of this week by defeating Ottawa at home and earning a point in an overtime loss to Boston, but this team has had major problems keeping up with top clubs at even strength and it will hurt them later in the season if things don't improve.

Team Performance (Five-on-Five)

The Hurricanes are offensively challenged right now and it's not just because of poor shooting luck (although that is also a problem). Sunday's win over the Senators was the first time the Hurricanes recorded over 10 even strength chances in a game since November 12th and they have been held to 10 or fewer even strength chances in eight games this year, which is already too high for my liking. To make things worse, they were also pummeled territorially controlling less than 45% of the five-on-five shot attempts and that number could have been a lot worse had it not been for the Ottawa game. That being said, the Hurricanes had the burden of playing some very tough opponents this past week, which undoubtedly impacted their underlying numbers but this is a team that was supposed to be competitive this year. If they want to stay in the mix and be taken seriously, they can't continue to get run over by stronger possession clubs. Getting wins over weaker teams like Ottawa will help, but the Canes need to start sizing up better against tougher clubs.

Individual Performance

Forwards

Positives

- In a week where the Canes were heavily outshot, do not overlook the great work done by Jordan Staal's line. He, Nathan Gerbe & Patrick Dwyer were the only thing keeping the Hurricanes from being in the cellar in terms of possession and have done a great job of tilting the pace of play in Carolina's favor when they are on the ice. The downside is that they haven't been scoring, but I doubt they will continue to shoot at only 2-3% for the entire year. Dwyer is starting to see some results, scoring two goals this week and Jordan also recorded a pair of assists.

- This was a productive week for the first line in terms of boxcar stats, as Eric Staal had seven points in four games and is riding a six-game point streak. Tuomo Ruutu also recorded his first two goals of the season and had a wonderful showing against Ottawa, looking more like his usual self.

- Kevin Westgarth wasn't a complete liability when he was on the ice and had two scoring chances against the Senators. Unfortunately, he also took a really bad boarding penalty in that game and will probably see some disciplinary action for it.

- Elias LIndholm returned to the lineup and looked vastly improved compared to his first stint. He scored a power play goal against Ottawa and the team was only outshot by one with him on the ice. When taking his usage into account, that is a very good showing by him and I think he could be in Raleigh long-term.

Negatives

- The first line is producing on the scoresheet, but they are getting heavily outshot while playing soft assignments. Most of this is from the first three games, but it's still a major red flag for them. Semin was the possession driver on this line and Staal has to really pick things up if he wants to carry this line. He showed signs of doing that against Ottawa, so hopefully that continues.

- Jeff Skinner didn't exactly have the impact I thought he would in his return to the lineup. He is normally a terrific possession player, but the Hurricanes were playing in their own end for the majority of his ice time and the coaching staff elected to move him back to the "third line" after the Detroit game. He was one of two players to not win the possession battle against Ottawa on Sunday, which was very odd to say the least.

- Jiri Tlusty had a rough showing against Detroit, as he was on the ice for three goals against and committed brutal errors on two of them. His statistical performance isn't bad when taking his usage into account, but the Canes need him to start producing soon because he hasn't brought much to the table otherwise.

- Riley Nash also had a very rough game against Detroit and found himself benched after turning the puck over on Darren Helm's goal. He was then a healthy scratch for the next two games and his numbers do a good job of showing why. He should be back in the lineup come Wednesday from the sound of things, though. 

- The fourth line is getting buried in the defensive zone and they aren't exactly doing a great job of moving the play forward at all. They have also been on the ice for 14-15 shot attempts per game, which is a little too high for a line that gets limited minutes.

Defensemen

Positives

- Andrej Sekera scored three goals this week and is now tied with Gerbe for second on the team. The opposition outshot Carolina heavily with him on the ice but with the Canes desperate for offense right now, I'm sure they will take Sekera's production. He has provided a very nice offensive presence on the team's first pairing with Justin Faulk.

- On that note, Faulk quietely had an excellent week. His two points against Ottawa were his only marks on the scoresheet, but he was Carolina's only defenseman to win the possession battle last week and did it while taking on some brutal assignments. Both him and Sekera have been inconsistent this year, but Faulk has been very solid these last few weeks in terms of territorial play.

- Ron Hainsey is still a rock on the back-end.

Negatives

- Bellemore scored his first NHL goal but outside of that, he had kind of at ough week. He is normally very good at limiting opponent's chances, but ended up on the wrong side of the ledger in both categories here. Seemed like he was due for a bump in the road, so hopefully he can rebound.

- Tim Gleason has looked  just plain bad in his return to the lineup and was a healthy scratch against Ottawa. He was turned inside out by Jarome Iginla & David Krejci on the Bruins overtime goal on Saturday afternoon , made a poor play in front of the net on Helm's goal on Thursday night and the Canes were outshot by 20 with him on the ice. This is with him getting third pairing assignments, too which speaks volumes about how poor he has played. Gleason has endured a lot over his career and has fought through a lot of injuries, but all of that mileage might be catching up with him because he does not look like someone I would trust playing top four minutes right now.

- Carolina continues to get heavily outshot with the third pairing on the ice and Ryan Murphy is taking a lot of the damage. He was on the ice for nearly half of the scoring chances that Carolina gave up and had some tough moments in both Boston games. He was also knocked off the puck which led to a turnover on Jason Spezza's goal Sunday. This is part of the learning process, but Murphy's territorial play hasn't taken many steps forward throughout the year and it's a little concerning. Although, playing with Harrison & Gleason isn't helping that cause.

This may have been only one game, but it was refreshing to see the Hurricanes offense show what they are capable of after going nearly a month averaging less than two goals per game. Not having to play an elite possession team certainly helped them, as it was easier for Carolina to establish a forecheck and work their way through the neutral zone, but a change in strategy was another big reason why their offense came to life against Ottawa.

Fenwick Timeline from Extra Skater

Ottawa dominated the first 10 minutes of the game and took an early 1-0 lead, outshooting Carolina 14-6 at one point. The Canes didn't wake up until around the 10 minute mark and they seemed to take control of things after that. They owned the majority of the second period and were rewarded for it with three goals. Both teams were playing the second night of a back-to-back and Ottawa was down a defenseman with Mark Borowiecki leaving the game in the first period, so their big-minute players definitely got tired as the game went on, especially since Carolina was rolling all four lines. There were some stretches where the Canes sat back while defending a two-goal lead, but they still maintained an advantage in territorial play for 5/6 of the game. It was nice to see after how they were dominated in this area for the last four games.

Scoring Chances

The second period looked more like the Hurricanes I expected to see this year. It was very fast-paced and the Hurricanes were letting their more skilled players work instead of playing a more conservative game. I was worried that they would go into a defensive shell after Ottawa dominated the first 10 minutes, but the Canes did the exact opposite and opened things up instead. They generated more even strength chances in that period alone than they did in the last two games and their overall chance count was their third highest of the season. Their play in the third period was also very encouraging because that was when the Canes buckled down defensively without letting Ottawa carry the play too much. They spent a decent amount of time in their own end, but didn't allow Ottawa to test Ward too much and they were able to create transition chances off mistakes by the Senators. When Muller talked about improving the team's play away from the puck, that is what I was hoping to see, rather than the Hurricanes constantly being plugged into their own zone.

Hurricanes Individual Scoring Chances

Hurricanes On-Ice Scoring Chances

Best EV Forward: Tuomo Ruutu +3

Worst EV Forwards: Manny Malhotra, Radek Dvorak, Kevin Westgarth & Drayson Bowman -1

Best EV Defensemen: Brett Bellemore & Ron Hainsey +4

Worst EV Defenseman: Ryan Murphy -4

The Hurricanes playing a more open style combined with Muller rolling all four lines resulted in Carolina having a pretty balanced attack. However, they also gave up a lot and 1/3 of the chances they surrendered came when the fourth line was on the ice. They were on the ice for Jason Spezza's goal after Jay Harrison iced the puck and Muller left them out there against that line a couple other times. They had some good shifts and Westgarth did create two chances, but they prone to get lit up in their own end more times than not.

I was pretty concerned about Eric Staal's ability to carry the first line without Alex Semin on his wing, but he was able to do just that last night, as this unit had a very good night. Not only did they crush the Sens on the shot clock, but they produced four scoring chances and 22 shot attempts. Most of them coming off the stick of Tuomo Ruutu, who looked more like his usual self. Muller made some changes to the lines by putting Nathan Gerbe on this unit and it worked out pretty well. Gerbe plays a simple game and was able to keep a lot of plays alive by winning battles and getting pucks on net.

The other change Muller made was placing Tlusty on the second line with Jordan Staal and he looked pretty good there. He doesn't have to be the play-driver on that line and that makes it easier for him to find gaps in coverage and create chances. He struggled to get anything on net, but he definitely had his opportunities and could see his luck change if he continues to keep it up. This line didn't go unrewarded, though as Patrick Dwyer scored the opening goal for the Hurricanes after some great work down low by Justin Faulk & Jordan Staal. The latter had one of his best games of the season, although his boxcar line may not indicate it.

Carolina's top-four was excellent last night, surrendering only five even strength chances to the Senators and keeping play out of their own end whenever they were on the ice. Faulk and Sekera did a great job of limiting Spezza's line and Bellemore & Hainsey were just as good against Turris' line, who had a very quiet game. Unfortunately, the third pairing got lit up and Harrison didn't look good at all.

Senators Individual Scoring Chances

Senators On-Ice Scoring Chances

Best EV Forwards: Erik Condra, Colin Greening & Jason Spezza +2

Worst EV Forward: Zack Smith -5

Best EV Defenseman: Erik Karlsson +2

Worst EV Defenseman: Jared Cowen -5

Paul Maclean also tried to roll all four lines and got somewhat of a balanced offensive attack. Spezza, Turris & Grant's lines were all able to create chances but their third line was destroyed. That said, Spezza's line still had a pretty good night overall and their third line played very well early in the game. Greening nearly put the Sens on top 2-0 in the first period but was denied by Ward making a diving stick save. That ended up coming back to haunt Ottawa, but this line still did some damage at even strength. I also thought the Ryan-Turris-Macarthur line was very quiet last night considering what they are capable of. Carolina was able to keep them in check and prevent them from doing much at even strength.

Ottawa was also playing down a defenseman tonight after Westgarth hit Mark Borowiecki from behind in the first period and as a result, Karlsson played over a half hour and both Marc Methot & Patrick Wiercicoh also logged some big minutes. Karlsson normally plays a lot, but I don't think Maclean wanted him to play this much on the second night of a back-to-back. That said, Karlsson still had a very good game compared to the rest of the defense, although he & Methot did not look good on the Ruutu goal. Ottawa's defensive problems all stemmed from the Cowen/Wiercioch pairing, who were on the ice for most of Carolina's scoring chances.

Head-to-Head at Five-on-Five

Despite the Hurricanes having the better end of the scoring chance battle, the Senators actually had more big wins in the head-to-head matchups and most of them were against Carolina's fourth line & third defense pairing. I know it's hard to control matchups when you have players on the opposing team logging 30+ minutes of ice-time, but it's kind of scary that Harrison & Murphy were on the ice long enough for the Sens to produce four scoring chances, especially since the Canes were playing at home. Carolina's top players won most of their matchups, though and that is what help decide the game. That and Ottawa's third line being a complete liability.

5v5 Zone Entries

Hurricanes

The Hurricanes had control on over 60% of their zone entries and while I don't expect this to sustain over a long period of time, I am hoping to see more games like this for the rest of the year. Carolina has enough forwards that can thrive in an up-tempo, transitional game and they showed that last night by winning the shot & chance battle while entering the zone with control the majority of the time. It also helped that Staal & Ruutu took on more of a role in the neutral zone with 10 combined controlled entries. Dwyer also had a ncie game and is starting to contribute a lot more on the second line. This might be a good thing with Tlusty playing on there now.

Senators

Carolina forced Ottawa's top players to dump the puck in more times than they would hav liked, but the Sens were still able to gain the zone with control on more than half of their entries. Bobby Ryan and Jason Spezza being the ones leading the way on their respective lines. Both Condra & Greening also made a pretty significant impact with limited ice-time. Their third line, however, was chasing the puck most of the time, dumping it in more times than their entire top-six did.

5v5 Zone Exits

Hurricanes

Carolina made quick work of their zone exits and as a result, they didn't have many player with a high number of touches. It helped that their defensemen were able to swiftly move the puck out of the zone and get it to a forward in the middle of the ice. Both Faulk & Hainsey had strong games in this regard and it was part of the reason why the Hurricanes were able to dictate the play so well in the second & third periods.

Senators

Unsurprisingly, Erik Karlsson was relied on heavily for the Senators breakouts and while he made a lot of good plays out of his own end, he also turned the puck over more times than the entire Hurricanes defense corps did. This probably comes with the territory when you handle the puck this often, but it's still a pretty interesting observation. With the exception of Cowen, Ottawa's defense didn't have much trouble getting play out of their own end and they made good use of their forwards to advance the puck if the breakout pass wasn't available. They didn't turn it into many chances, but the Sens did create a lot of shots and their breakouts were a big reason for that.

Through two periods, the Hurricanes generated only 10 shots on goal and were being outchanced 12-3. This club has had a lot of trouble creating offense, but it takes a lot of effort (or lack thereof) to have that kind of output through 40 minutes of play. The Bruins simply looked like they were in a different league than the Hurricanes for most of the game and probably should have won this game in a blowout when taking that into consideration. The Hurricanes had trouble possessing the puck, sustaining a forecheck, creating chances, getting the puck out of their own zone and pretty much everything you need to do to win hockey games. Yet, Carolina managed to escape Boston with a point and most of that is due to the play of goaltender Cam Ward. 

Ward made 35 saves and managed to keep the Hurricanes in the game, most of his shining moments coming in the second period where they were under siege and outshot 12-4. Every team has a game where their goaltender needs to steal a point or two for them and Ward was able to do that tonight with his performance. The team in front of him had to step up too, which they did in the third period, but this game was all about #30. This was the Cam Ward most were hoping to see this year and while it was nice to see him dialed in, the rest of the team has a ton of issues right now and they have about 20-some games to correct them.

Fenwick Timeline from Extra Skater

Carolina looked pretty good in the first 5-10 minutes of the game and got an early boost with a power play goal from Andrej Sekera. However, all of that momentum went down the drain after Boston got a four-minute power play which they scored on and they completely took over the game afterward. Carolina went about 15-20 minutes without a shot attempt and could barely do anything with the puck at all. Boston had all of the zone time during this period and when the Hurricanes eventually got possession, all they could do was dump the puck in because their forwards were worn out from playing too much in their own end. The only zone time they could create were off tip plays in the neutral zone and those didn't' result in anything because the Bruins were winning most of the races to the puck. It was a very ugly game to watch and the fact that the Hurricanes managed to get out of that stretch down 2-1 is sort of a miracle. 

The third period was a much better frame for Carolina, as they finally started to show some life and managed to tie the game on a shorthanded goal from Patrick Dwyer. The Hurricanes had every reason to lie down and take the loss. They were getting vastly outplayed, took two penalties and had nothing going their way, but they did just the opposite of that and were able to earn one point in the standings. There's been a lot of discussion about the confidence issues of this team, but they seem to be trying to break that mold this year, as this is not the first time they've fought back after getting outplayed. Playing for a full-60 minutes is still a major problem, though.

Scoring Chances

The Hurricanes continue to be offensively challenged and the chance differential really could have been a lot worse had it not been for the defensive play of the Canes. They did a pretty good job of disrupting the Bruins passing lanes and covering up the slot and Boston ended up having a lot of "almost" chances that didn't get on net. The downside of this is that the Hurricanes barely had the puck and created basically no offense and this has been a reoccurring theme for awhile. Muller has talked about trying to improve the team's play away from the puck, but the Canes seem to have forgotten how to play well with the puck. Their passing has looked just awful these past few games and they have made a lot of bad turnovers in their own zone, as well. Boston could have easily gotten another two goals had it not been for the poor ice conditions at TD Garden.

Hurricanes Individual Scoring Chances

Hurricanes On-Ice Scoring Chances

Best EV Forwards: Jeff Skinner, KEvin Westgarth & Elias Lindholm EVEN

Worst EV Forward: Drayson Bowman -3

Best EV Defenseman: Ron Hainsey +1

Worst EV Defenseman: Tim Gleason -4

I really like Patrick Dwyer as a player and he came up huge with his shorthanded goal in the third period, but when he is responsible for 1/3 of the team's offense, that is a problem. His line with Jordan Staal & Nathan Gerbe has done great things this year, but there's only so much offense they can create even if they do a good job at driving the play. Although, they should be due to produce more if they continue to create chances, as the three of them combined for five tonight and had 11 shot attempts.

Still, the other lines need to start doing more and Eric Staal's line had a very rough game. Him, Ruutu & Tlusty spent most of the game trapped in their own end and they were too tired to do anything by the time they got the puck into the offensive zone. Tlusty & Ruutu obviously aren't possession drivers, but Staal hasn't shown that he can carry a line on his own this year and it's been discouraging to watch. Semin's return can't come soon enough.

Most of the defense corps had tough games, as they were forced to play in their own end for the majority of the game but the only one who had a noticeably bad performance was Tim Gleason. He was victimized on two of Boston's goals and looked especially bad on the over-time goal. Jarome Iginla was able to get the inside track on him and Ryan Murphy and Gleason looked completely lost while trying to react to he play, somehow ending up behind the net while David Krejci walked alone in front to score the game-winner. I know that we have to account for rink-rust, but he struggled last year too and I have my doubts that he can be a top-four defenseman at his age. He is drowning in third pairing minutes right now.

On special teams, the second penalty kill unit of Nathan Gerbe, Eric Staal, Justin Faulk & Andrej Sekera was torched. These four were on the ice for four of the Bruins six power play chances and Gerbe failed to clear the puck on Zdeno Chara's goal. Muller likes to use a lot of forwards on the PK, but having Malhotra in the box then really hurt. Dwyer, Jordan Staal, Hainsey & Bellemore did a nice job on the first unit, at least.

Bruins Individual Scoring Chances

Bruins On-Ice Scoring Chances

Best EV Forwards: Chris Kelly & Milan Lucic +3

Worst EV Forwards: Dan Paille & Shawn Thornton -1

Best EV Defenseman: Tory Krug +4

Worst EV Defenseman: Dougie Hamilton -1

This was pretty similar to Monday night's game where most of Boston's offense came from the Krejci & Kelly lines. Boston's third line was very impressive going by the eye-test, as they gave the Gleason/Murphy pairing a lot of trouble and creating some very good chances. They also dominated the shot clock and were able to pin the Hurricanes into their own end whenever they were on the ice. All in under 13 minutes of even strength ice time. Krejci's line also looked very good and dominated the Hurricanes in the first and second period.

Head-to-Head at Five-on-Five

Bergeron's line neutralized Eric Staal and Chara was able to dominate the Canes first line, as well. Jordan Staal's line didn't have much success against Krejci and the only depth matchup the Hurricanes won was 53-16-18 against Boston's Merlot line. The overall advantage goes to the Bruins here.

After the Hurricanes failed on yet another power play in the third period, the Red Wings eventually got a two-man advantage of their own and they capitalized despite Carolina's best attempt to hang on. The Wings would then go onto salt away time and put the game away late in the third with a goal from Gustav Nyquist. Had Carolina scored on their earlier power play, perhaps this is a different game. We have seen many games like this over the years where one goal or one sequence can change the entire landscape of a game and the Hurricanes definitely had plenty of chances to escape Detroit with at least a point. Unfortunately, they came up empty-handed and this game is a good example of what separates good teams from bad teams. 

Both clubs made a lot of mistakes, but the difference was that Detroit was capitalizing on Carolina's while the Hurricanes did were doing whatever they could to stay close enough and not let things get out of hand. A lot of the credit there should go to goaltender Justin Peters, who played one of his best games as an NHL-er and made 43 saves. This has been the story for the last three games or so, as Carolina was vastly out-played in all of them but managed to do just enough to stay close to their opponent and keep it a relatively competitive game. That just isn't going to get it done and it doesn't matter who you are going up against. 

The odd thing about last night's game is that while the Hurricanes kept the score close, a look at the numbers shows that they were very lucky that they were not blown out.

Fenwick Timeline from Extra Skater

Yet another game where Carolina was heavily outshot and let their opponents dictate the play. Detroit jumped on them early, maintained a pretty big shot advantage throughout and didn't let Carolina sustain any sort of a forecheck. Going from my observations, I don't think the Canes were hemmed in that much but they couldn't do much of anything with their zone time while the Red Wings managed to at least fire one shot toward Justin Peters every time they entered Carolina's zone. That might be a little bit of an exaggeration but it sure felt like that was the case. The most deflating part of this graph is the third period, where Carolina was able to finally generate some pressure and force Detroit to play in their own zone...then the two minor penalties happened. The Wings dominated from that point on.

Scoring Chances

In my analysis of the Bruins game, I said that the Hurricanes are a bad team and top-tier possession clubs are going to take advantage of them. The Red Wings are the god-fathers of puck-possession and predictably outshot and outchanced Carolina by a wide margin. The sad part is that the Wings haven't been their usual selves this year, as they rank in the middle of the pack in terms of shot attempt percentage and have struggled in recent weeks. They were also without two top-six forwards in Daniel Alfredsson & Stephen Weiss and yet, they still slaughtered the Hurricanes in all three areas.

The Hurricanes may have finally broke the two-goal barrier for only the fourth time this season but their offensive output as a whole was pretty pathetic. I know that they've been struggling to create chances lately, but having only five at even strength for an entire game is just sad. It's not like they were focusing on playing defense either because Peters had to do a lot of work to keep this a close game.

Hurricanes Individual Scoring Chances

Hurricanes On-Ice Scoring Chances

"Best" EV Forwards: Nathan Gerbe & Chris Terry -1

Worst EV Forward: Jiri Tlusty -6

"Best" EV Defenseman: Ron Hainsey -2

Worst EV Defenseman: Ryan Murphy -6

It's hard to say that any Carolina player was good last night since the entire team was in the red in terms of scoring chances but if I had to pick one positive, it is probably Jordan Staal's line. They were the only unit that wasn't morbidly outshot at even strength and had a good game defensively compared to the rest of the team. Andrej Sekera obviously came up big as well with a pair of goals, but both him and Faulk had a lot of trouble containing Zetterberg's line all game.

Outside of that and Brett Bellemore scoring his first NHL goal, there isn't much good to say about Carolina's performance. Jeff Skinner didn't exactly make an impact on the first line, at least not at even strength, and Jiri Tlusty may have had the worst game of his NHL career. Muller moved him down to the third line after his turnover on Gustav Nyquist's first goal and made a poor read on his second goal, which effectively took the Hurricanes out of the game. Tlusty wasn't completely at fault for that goal because both Hainsey & Faulk pinched, but he was the high forward in that situation and could have done a much better job there. With that said, it's unfair to single out Tlusty here because he wasn't the only forward who had a terrible game and made a mistake which led to a goal.

Most of the forwards did a very poor job in their own zone and they continued to struggle when it came to producing offense. The only time Carolina created any chances were when they had a defenseman jumping into the play and it seemed like the coaching staff gave everyone the green light to pinch. Five of Carolina's nine scoring chances came from defensemen and so did all three of their goals. This worked out for Bellemore & Sekera but a bad pinch is what led to Nyquist's second goal so this strategy has its drawbacks.

Red Wings Individual Scoring Chances

Red Wings On-Ice Scoring Chances

Best EV Forwards: Gustav Nyquist & Johan Franzen +6

Worst EV Forwards: Pavel Datsyuk, Tomas Tatar & Todd Bertuzzi +1

Best EV Defenseman: Niklas Kronwall +6

Worst EV Defenseman: Jakub Kindl +2

Pavel Datsyuk had an off-night for his standards but it didn't matter because the rest of Detroit's lineup did plenty of damage. They had 12 different players record a scoring chance and Henrik Zetterberg's line had a monster game. He, Nyquist and Franzen recorded six of Detroit's scoring chances and combined for 14 shot attempts. Nyquist scoring on both of his shots didn't hurt either.

Head-to-Head at Five-on-Five

Jordan Staal's line, Sekera, Bellemore & Hainsey were the only Carolina players to win at least one of their matchups and Eric Staal's lien was eaten alive by Zetterberg's. Detroit's bottom-six also had a very good game and outplayed Carolina's depth by a significant margin. 

5v5 Zone Entries

Hurricanes

Carolina's defense combined for nine controlled zone entries, which is very high for them and they actually had some success the times they were able to gain the line with control. Someone has to make up for the role Alex Semin plays in the neutral zone and the defensemen seemed to be the ones doing that last night. Hopefully that changes once Jeff Skinner gets another couple games under his belt because he is capable of being a very impactful player in this area.

I'd also like to point out that dumping the puck in produced no results for the Hurricanes.

Red Wings