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Derek Joslin, Marc-Andre Gragnani and The Waiver Wire

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

A couple days before the NHL free agency period began, the Hurricanes decided to buy out the final year of defenseman Derek Joslin's contract and allowed him to become a UFA. It shouldn't take a genius to figure out why Joslin was bought out when you look at the season he had. He didn't contribute much offense, had the worst possession numbers on the team despite receiving some incredibly soft ice time and couldn't be counted on to play more than 7-10 minutes a game. Joslin was on a one-way deal and was set to make $750,000 this season, which is too much for someone who was likely going to be playing in the AHL, so it's easy to see why the Hurricanes decided to cut him loose.

Joslin had a terrible season and I can't really defend any of the numbers he put up, but I can't help but be confused as to why he played so poorly. Sure, he was unproven at the beginning of the season but he was a solid player at the AHL level while he was in the Sharks organization and played decently enough with Carolina after they acquired him in the Ian White trade. Take a look at his underlying numbers from the last few seasons and you'll notice a huge drop-off that occurred last season.

GP FenClose OZ%
2009-10 24 0.458 44.8
2010-11 34 0.493 49.6
SJ 17 0.491
CAR 17 0.495
2011-12 44 0.396 59.8

"FenClose" is Joslin's Fenwick percentage at even strength when the game is close. It measures the amount of shot attempts that Joslin was on ice for and what percentage the Hurricanes controlled during those times. In the 34 games he played in the 2010 season, Joslin was barely getting outplayed at even strength and appeared to be serviceable as a third-pairing defenseman or an AHL call-up. He turned into a complete liability at even strength the next year for whatever reason. The Hurricanes were stuck in their own end for the majority of the time he was on the ice and this was despite him starting nearly 60% of his even strength shifts in the offensive zone. Is Joslin really this bad or were there some other factors that caused things to go wrong for him?

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Hurricanes Top 25 Under 25: #6 Zac Dalpe

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

Sports fans always have a different set of precedents for certain prospects in their favorite team's system. In hockey, expectations are usually higher for prospects that were taken earlier in the draft or have an impressive track record at the college and junior levels. The team's organizational depth usually plays a role in fan's expectations, as well. For example, a forward who was a point-per-game player for a couple seasons in the OHL, he might be looked upon as the crowned jewel of a team's prospect pool whereas he might be lower in the rankings on a deeper team with more prospects similar to him. On a team with a lot of organizational depth, there would be less depended on just one prospect and the expectations for him would be leveled a bit. They might even have some more patience and allow him to develop in the AHL for a few years.

The Hurricanes, unfortunately, haven't had that deep of a forward prospect pool that last few seasons so anyone who posts big college or junior numbers rises to the top of the rankings. They have a lot of good players in the system like Drayson Bowman, Zach Boychuk, Chris Terry and Justin Shugg, but not many of them have much star potential with the main exception being Jeff Skinner, who immediately jumped to the NHL after being drafted. Then there's Zac Dalpe, who is somewhat of a fan favorite and has been a lot of people's "breakout" pick for the last two years because of his talent and success at the lower levels. During those two seasons, Dalpe has made the team out of camp but failed to stick with the Hurricanes and has spent the majority of his time with the Checkers in the AHL.

This isn't the worst thing in the world because Dalpe is only 22 years old a couple of years in the AHL isn't going to stunt his development, but most were hoping for Dalpe to break into the pros much sooner. He was a second round pick but his fantastic sophomore season with the Ohio State Buckeyes got the fanbase really excited about him. Dalpe showcased his terrific goal scoring prowess and high-end offensive ability throughout his college career and carried it over to the pros with the Charlotte Checkers with a 23 goal, 57 point rookie campaign, earning him AHL Rookie of the Year honors. He has the makings of a potential top-six forward in the NHL and certainly has the talent to make that jump, so it's easy to see why people are excited about him.

Another year has gone by and Dalpe is still largely unproven as an NHL-er. He has played 31 total games and his underlying numbers have been largely underwhelming during that time. To add to that, he had a down season with the Checkers with only 18 goals and 32 points in 56 total games. It may have caused some people to label him as a bust and claim that he won't be the top-six player that many hoped he would be, but there is a possibility that this season may have just been a bump in the road for Dalpe. All players have down years and it isn't too far-fetched to say that Dalpe can rebound.

No player should be considered a "bust" at 22, but Dalpe is probably lower in the rankings now than he was a year ago, and a lot of that is because of his most recent season. Once again, he was good enough to make the team out of camp and ended up getting saddled with fourth-line minutes for the first month of the season and was eventually placed on IR after suffering the dreaded "lower-body injury" in a game against Buffalo. There was also a rumor of him fighting through a lingering injury in training camp, so Dalpe wasn't at 100% during his brief stint with the Hurricanes, and the fact that he was getting less than 10 minutes a game wasn't helping his development either.

It's also worth mentioning that Dalpe was better for the Checkers than his scoring line indicates. He was the team's second best player in shots on goal per game, and was also one of the best in the AHL in that category. His goal total did not fall off by that much, but his point total was a completely different story and likely the reason he saw such a decline in points. The Checkers shot at only 8.5% as a team last season, so it's not unreasonable to believe that bad luck attributed to the low amount of assists Dalpe had last season. This is something that will improve if Dalpe keeps playing at the level he has for the last couple of seasons. However, what fans probably care more about is whether or not Dalpe will be in the NHL full-time next season.

Dalpe has a good opportunity to do so with the team's third line center spot being available. He was good enough to make the team out of camp for two years in a row, so he can do it again but he has a little more competition this time around with Jeremy Welsh, Drayson Bowman and Zach Boychuk all trying to achieve the same goal. There just aren't enough roster spots to go around and Dalpe will have to do something to stand out among the rest of Carolina's prospects. He will also have to show that he is good enough to play in a top-nine role because keeping him on the team to be a fourth liner (again) isn't going to do much of anything and he would almost be better off in Charlotte.

Regardless, I think Dalpe will be an NHL-er at some point in his career. It could be next season or another year from now, but I think he is good enough to make it and is talented enough to be a contributing player in the top-nine. It's all a matter of when it happens but I think fans need to be more patient with him and his development. Am I frustrated that he spent most of last year in the AHL? To an extent, yes, but have I given up hope in him? Absolutely not. Dalpe is going to get his chances while he is under team control and we will have to wait and see how things turn out. He hasn't made the jump to the NHL as quickly as I hoped but at this point, there is little reason for me to believe that he can't become a top-nine player within the next couple years.

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Hurricanes top 25 Under 25: #7 Bobby Sanguinetti

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

Bobby Sanguinetti is a player who has fallen on tough luck during his time in the pros. After being a first round selection by the New York Rangers in the 2006 NHL Draft and being an offensive stud during junior hockey, he has yet to make any sort of impact in the NHL. Part of the reason for this is because his game is pretty one-dimensional. As an offensive defenseman, Sanguinetti's main roles are quarterbacking the powerplay, moving the puck through the neutral zone and jumping into the play to create chances. He is skilled in all of these qualities but his play in the defensive zone hasn't quite developed at the rate that most scouts were hoping. Still, most teams always seem to have room for players like Sanguinetti, so why hasn't he played more than three total games in the NHL? The reason is that every organization he has been a part of have players who are like Sanguinetti, but superior to him.

Look at the Rangers' 2009-10 squad when Sanguinetti was a 20-21 year old and had a reasonable chance to make the team out of camp. He was one of their better defensive prospects at the time, but he failed to secure a roster spot and was beaten out by the likes of Michael Del Zotto and Matt Gilroy. With those two plus Wade Redden and Michael Rozsival, the Rangers had enough offensive-minded defensemen on the team and Sanguinetti just wasn't good enough to make the final cut. His shortcomings in the defensive zone and poor decision making led to him falling out of favor with the coaching staff in New York and Rutherford was able to acquire him in exchange for one of Carolina's second round picks.

Sanguinetti had his problems with the Rangers but he was also in his early 20's at the time and not every defenseman can pick up the game as quickly as some would hope. Plus, he was not going to ascend much in the Rangers system with the high volume of defensive prospects they have, so a change of scenery was probably best for both parties involved. How has this move worked out for him? So far, it hasn't been too bad. He hasn't seen much NHL action, but he became one of the Checkers top defensemen last season, which could really help him work his way up in Carolina's rankings. Sanguinetti was injured for most of his first season in Charlotte but he really stepped up his game last season with 10 goals and 50 points in 60 games, placing him second on the Checkers in points.

This was the kind of offensive firepower that most people were expecting from Sanguinetti since his junior years as he was a vital part of the Checkers powerplay. He scored scored seven of his goals with the man advantage and his terrific puck-moving skills proved to be a huge asset for Charlotte's even strength play, as well. Sanguinetti also possesses a very good shot from the point and opposing teams have learned that the hard way more than a few times. His decision making has also improved a lot over the last year as he made fewer careless turnovers last season and seems to know when to jump into the play and when not to. That will be very important if he wants to make it to the next level.

That being said, Sanguinetti still plays a high-risk game and is prone to the occasional blunder in the defensive zone. He also finished the year as a -12 in Charlotte despite being nearly a point-per-game player and that tells me a few things. Either he tallied more points on the powerplay than I remember (which is possible given that seven of his ten goals were PPG's), he was on ice for a lot of even strength goals against or the Checkers goalies couldn't stop a beach ball when he was on the ice. It was likely a combination of all three because while Sanguinetti was not a complete defensive liability, he definitely had a lot of trouble when it came to battling against forwards in the defensive zone. He is still in his early 20's, so there is always room for improvement but the fact of the matter is that Sanguinetti is likely going to remain an offensive-minded player for the rest of his career. That is where is his most skilled and he will be more successful in the NHL if he is utilized in this fashion.

However, Sanguinetti could have trouble making the Hurricanes next season for this exact same reason. I mentioned earlier that his great year with the Checkers might lead to him being higher on the totem pole than he was before, but he is in a similar situation to where he was with the Rangers a few years before. With Joni Pitkanen, Jamie McBain, Justin Faulk, Joe Corvo, Ryan Murphy and Marc-Andre Gragnani all looking for spots on the Hurricanes next year, it's hard to find a place for Sanguinetti because there are just too many offensive-minded guys there and Sangs has to do something to make himself stand out among the pack. He is also not exempt from waivers, so the Canes are going to run the risk of losing him to another organization if he doesn't make the team out of camp. There are always a lot of good players who manage to pass through waivers with no issue but it's still a risk to take given how important of a player Sanguinetti is to Charlotte.

There are NHL teams who could find use in a player like Sanguinetti and I'm sure that he got the coaching staff's attention with the year he had with the Checkers, but Sanguinetti needs to go above and beyond to make the Hurricanes out of camp this year. When I say that, I mean he needs to have a more well-rounded game and be more than just an offensive force because they have enough players on the prospective roster to assume that role for next season. Also, if Sanguinetti is still only a borderline third pairing defenseman in the NHL this season, then he is probably better off playing bigger minutes in Charlotte. The only issue here is that the Hurricanes can't call him up without exposing him to waivers unless it's an emergency recall, so he'll likely be stuck there. That will make the final roster cuts in training camp very interesting.

Regardless, Sanguinetti should have a future in the NHL but it's tough to tell if that he will be with the Hurricanes when his time eventually comes.

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Hurricanes Top 25 Under 25: #8 Jeremy Welsh

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

Undrafted college free agents are always tough ones to figure out. General managers always tend to jump on these players once the NCAA season ends in an attempt to find some NHL-ready talent at a very low cost. Their college boxcar numbers usually look good and they have the makings of being a capable NHL-er on paper, but they don't always turn out that way. There have been a lot of undrafted free agents like Chris Kunitz, Adam Oates, Dan Boyle, Brian Rafalski and Martin St. Louis who have gone on to have good careers but there have been just as many UDFA's like Jason Krog, Lee Sweatt, Cory Murphy, Andrew Ebbett, Bill Thomas and Keith Aucoin who haven't done much in the NHL during their careers. I do not deny that some GM's have an eye for these kinds of players and have a good idea of which ones have the most potential to make it in the NHL but overall, there have just been so many of them that have gone in either direction.

The Hurricanes don't have a ton of experience in dealing with players like this, but they are going to hope that their newest UDFA, Jeremy Welsh can step into the NHL relatively soon. Hurricanes GM Jim Rutherford was quick to sign Welsh to a one-year deal after his Union Dutchmen were eliminated from the Frozen Four this spring and the Canes were fortunate enough to see him suit up for the Hurricanes in their final game of the season. He took a couple of penalties in that game but he was very solid otherwise. He ended up in the black in scoring chances and created a couple on his own according to my game reports. Unfortunately, that's all the NHL experience he has so far but it probably won't be his last.

One good thing that came from the Hurricanes jumping on Welsh so early is that he is close to being at the age where he should be ready for the NHL and could contribute as soon as this year. He was also coming off a fantastic junior year as the captain of Union College's hockey team and was arguably their best player during their Frozen Four run, so there were a few teams looking to acquire him. The Hurricanes were very fortunate to get him, but they still have yet to come to terms on a new contract with Welsh. He is currently a restricted free agent and it's taking a bit longer than expected to get a deal done, but one would think that the Hurricanes are reasonably close to getting something done. It wouldn't be a surprised if he got a three-year, two-way contract similar to what Matt Read of the Philadelphia Flyers got before last season. Although, it might be a little hard to justify spending a considerable amount of money on him because he has played only one NHL game in his entire career. His college resume is nothing but impressive, though.

Welsh scored 27 goals and had 44 points in 40 games last season, which were the second and fifth highest ECAC totals in each category, respectively. His 6'3" frame and ability to dominate battles along the boards have earned him the reputation as a "power forward" in college, which is something that could make him fit in nicely on a checking line next year for the Hurricanes. This along with his scoring potential makes him a very intriguing prospect and it also helps that he is close to being ready to contribute at the NHL level. Will he be able to do that next year? We'll have to wait and see but he definitely has the tools to succeed and it's interesting to think about what he can bring to the Hurricanes if he can carry over his play from college.

Hopefully Carolina can get this contract situation sorted out relatively soon because Welsh is good enough to make an immediate impact on the Hurricanes. He can fill the team's void at third line center, improve the team's forward depth and plays a strong possession-type game that the Hurricanes really need right now. If the can make the jump to be in the NHL full-time next year, then it would be a huge boost to the Canes. Whether or not he can do that is still up in the air, but the Hurricanes don't need him to be a star like he was in college, they just need him to be a contributing top-nine player within the next couple of years. Given Welsh's talent and college experience, this seems like a doable task.

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Hurricanes Top 25 Under 25: #9 Jiri Tlusty

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

It is weird to think about what this list would look like if it was made starting last season. Had I done that, there is a good chance that players like Zach Boychuk would be in the Top 10 while Jiri Tlusty would be towards the bottom of the list. It's a year later now and while Boychuk has still yet to make his mark in the NHL, Tlusty did just that last season with a 17-goal, 36-point breakout campaign. Tlusty was primarily a fourth liner and AHL tweener before last season, so the expectations for him are usually pretty low, but one thing that's often forgotten about him is that he is still pretty young and has been slowly improving over the last few years.

It may seem like Tlusty is older because he's been in the league for awhile but he only turned 24 in March and seems to have finally solidified himself as an NHL-er now. Unfortunately, he will likely be seen as a "draft bust" by the larger media because of his draft slot and the Leafs possibly rushing him into the NHL before he was ready. Jim Rutherford decided to take a chance on Tlusty by trading Philippe Paradis to the Leafs for him and things seemed to have turned out well now. Tlusty had to work his way through the system and earn his ice-time with the Hurricanes but he appears to have earned a permanent spot on the team now and was a big part of the Canes first line last year.

A big part of Tlusty's breakout season was that the was able to show great chemistry with Eric Staal and the duo were very effective despite playing with a revolving door on the other wing. Tlusty and Staal were able to win the scoring chance battle at even strength when they were playing together, but things get a little interesting if you look at Tlusty's WOWY chart in the linked article. You can see that Tlusty had trouble controlling scoring chances when he was playing away from Staal and that could make you wonder how he will do in the future when he is playing with different linemates. Although, a reason for his poor underlying numbers is that he was playing on Brandon Sutter's line for most of the first half of the season, which is the line that gets the biggest defensive responsibilities on the team. Tlusty's defensive game may have developed nicely but he clearly wasn't ready for that role.

Tlusty has shown in his days in the AHL that he has a lot of offensive talent and has top-six potential but it's unknown if he can carry a line on his own. His underlying numbers at even strength have never been very good but he showed last year that he is at least able to get the job done with good linemates and his goal total wasn't driven by high percentages like some may think. The issue is that his performance next year is going to depend on what kind of ice-time he gets and what situation he will be playing in, neither of which can be determined right now. He might stay in the top-six if he looks good enough in camp but he could end up on a completely different line with a weaker center. What happens then? We'll have to wait and see.

Again, Tlusty is still very young and played about 42% of his career ice-time in last season alone so there is a lot about him that is unproven at this point. He had a great year but I would like to see some sustained production from him before anyone starts claiming him as a legit top-six forward. Hopefully he will get the chance to do that next year but if not, then I see no reason why he can't be a useful third liner. His scoring rate last year (1.68 at even strength) would be very good for a third liner, so if he can produce at a similar rate next year then the Hurricanes should be able to get their money's worth with Tlusty. He's only going to be paid $1.6 mil. over the next two years, so getting anything more than third line production out of him would be a terrific bargain under the current salary cap.

The main thing with Tlusty is that for every reason there is to be excited about his future, there is every bit of reason to be skeptical. There is no denying that he has talent and has worked hard to earn his place on the Hurricanes, but his underlying numbers are very spotty and he's had only one good season so far. Carolina made a great decision to keep him around at a low cost for two years, because it's enough time to evaluate him and he can still give the team great value if he continues to play to his potential.

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Hurricanes Top 25 Under 25: #10 Danny Biega

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

It's no secret that the Hurricanes are well-versed in drafting players from the college rankings and they seem to always look there when it comes to selecting a defensemen. Both Justin Faulk and Jamie McBain came from the NCAA and some of their more promising prospects such as Mark Alt and Brian Dumoulin (before he was traded) were playing college hockey when they were drafted. Another player to add to that list is Harvard University's star defenseman Danny Biega, who might be the team's best prospect currently playing college hockey.

Biega was taken in the third round of the 2010 draft and at the time, he was billed as a slightly under-sized defenseman with a good amount of two-way upside. He didn't have the most impressive track record then but that has changed completely in the last two years. Biega's sophomore and junior seasons at Harvard have been very impressive and it reached a new high last year. He was a point per game player, led all Harvard defensemen in points and earned a number of credentials around the nation. Biega's 35 points in 34 games was the highest total from a Harvard defensemen since 1993-94 and ranked second among defensemen in the league in points-per-game. His offensive output was very impressive but his play in his own end may have been even more impressive, as Biega was on ice for only 9 goals against during ECAC play.

Now, I don't know how much luck played a role in that since Harvard's two goalies were on polar opposites of the save percentage spectrum, but to be on ice for only 9 goals against in 20+ games is impressive nonetheless. Biega is a strong, smart player but he isn't the biggest or most physically active, so I'm not sure how his defensive play will translate to the NHL even though he has been nothing but impressive during his last two years at Harvard. His skating, puck-moving skills and deceptive shot remain his most effective skills, so it's more likely that he becomes an offensive-defensemen in the NHL, although he could amount to much more after his play in both ends last season.

Biega was a first team ECAC All-American and was the ECAC Defensive Defenseman of the year. He was also a runner-up for the ECAC player of the year and was on the ballot for the Hobey Baker Award for the best college player, neither of which are small feats and could mean big things for him in the future. It will be interesting to see how Biega builds on this season because he has already shattered the expectations of many and he still has some room to grow. He will get a chance to bring home some more hardware next season when he returns to Harvard as team captain and looks to improve on an outstanding junior year. 

The Hurricanes prospect pipleline suffered a big blow when they traded Brian Dumoulin this summer but the Canes are well-stocked in defenseman with Biega being one of the most promising names in the bunch. His performance last season was almost as impressive as Dumoulin's and it looks like he may have a future ahead of him in the NHL, but how good he will be is another question. He has the offensive tools to be a great powerplay quarterback but his defensive game might be a lot better than the scouts had originally thought. If Biega is a solid top-four defenseman at the NHL level, then it's possible that he could off-set the loss of Dumoulin. We will have to see how next season goes before making that claim, though. That and Carolina needs to sign him to a contract when his college season ends.

Either way, Biega is one of the more underrated players in the Canes system and could find himself in the NHL soon if everything goes right.

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Waiting on Ryan Murphy

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

There a lot of things to be happy about concerning the Hurricanes off-season but there are still plenty of question marks surrounding the team, the biggest of which being on defense and whether or not they have enough players capable of handling tough minutes. Carolina's defense is going through a tough transition period, so they are going to take their lumps and they certainly did last season. No team gave up more shots per 60 minutes at even strength than the Canes did last season and things like this usually happen when you have a lot of young players and injuries on top of that. 

Going into this season, the Hurricanes defense is mostly the same with the exception of Joe Corvo taking the place of Bryan Allen and Jaroslav Spacek leaving via free agency, so it's easy to understand why a lot of fans are worried. It shouldn't be all bad, though. Getting close to a full season from Joni Pitkanen will help and some of the younger players like Justin Faulk and Jamie McBain are only going to get better with time. Plus, the team has a very solid shutdown defenseman in Tim Gleason and you also have to think about the improvements Jay Harrison made last season. Still, the defense corps could use a shot in the arm to make them more of a dangerous unit.

The defense received that boost last season in the form of Justin Faulk, who emerged as a top-four defenseman at the age of 19 and was pretty exceptional given the circumstances. Faulk made the loss of Pitkanen far less of a blow than it could have been and dramatically improved the Hurricanes defense. Getting a surprise like that would be an enormous help to Carolina this season and some are thinking that they may get it from last year's first round pick Ryan Murphy.

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Hurricanes Top 25 Under 25: #11 Victor Rask

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

In the 2011 NHL Draft, Victor Rask was touted as one of the most talented prospects to be taken outside of the first round and a possible steal for the Hurricanes with the 42nd overall pick. Rask has a lot of raw talent and offensive skill that would find him a home in the top-six of any organization but he is also regarded as one of the most "enigmatic players" of this draft class, as well. The scouts never denied his talent but they had questions about his compete level and have said that Rask has more chance of being a bust than other prospects. I'm not sure if these are legitimate concerns or just European bias, but I'm sure that Rask's stock and expectations have increased a lot after the year he had with the Calgary Hitmen.

Rask made his North American debut this season playing with the Calgary Hitmen of the WHL and it was a huge success. He had 63 points in 64 games and ranked second on the team in goals with 36. This is no easy feat since this was his first year playing hockey in North America and he was only 18 years old for most of the year. Rask also took helped Team Sweden take home the gold medal in the IIHF World Junior Hockey tournament last January, so he definitely got to showcase his talents to a wider audience in a lot of ways last season.

Rask's goal-scoring and play-making skills make him a very dangerous player and in addition to that, he is very effective as a physical presence. Rask is pretty big and knows how to use his impressive size to advantage and it's helped him become a solid power forward at the junior level. It isn't easy to knock him off the puck and he also has an advantage over opponents when it comes to winning puck battles and playing along the boards. Rask's ceiling is tough to figure out because he has a lot of offensive upside and he clearly showed that with the Hitmen this season but he has a lot of limitations, the biggest of which being his skating. It's difficult to succeed as an offensive force in the NHL if you are a poor skater and that is one thing that could hold back Rask this season.

Fortunately, skating is a skill that can be taught and can also improve over time, so it shouldn't halt Rask's development that much. He excels in so many other areas that he should be able to correct this problem within the next couple of years. However, this is something that the Hurricanes coaching staff should keep an eye on in training camp this year. Rask is pretty far off from being ready for the NHL but there is a possibility of him making the Charlotte Checkers as early as this season. He already has an entry-level deal signed, so he can play for the Checkers if the team feels that he is ready but another year in juniors won't hurt him either and the team won't have to burn a year of his ELC.

So, where should Rask play next season? Ultimaitely, I don't think it matters too much because he has holes in his game and he can work on them in either the WHL or the AHL. It all depends on what the coaching staff thinks of him and whether or not he outperforms the rest of the Charlotte centers in training camp. The Checkers could lose some talent to the NHL so that may open the door for Rask but I can't help but feel that it's a little too premature to have him in the pros next season. He still has things he needs to work on in juniors but if he is one of the four best centers in Charlotte in training camp then I could easily see him spending the year there. My opinion is that he might be better off facing junior competition next season and it's probably better for his development if he plays another year in Calgary. It could be awhile before Carolina knows what they have in Rask but the future is bright for him, regardless.

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Hurricanes Top 25 Under 25: #12 Zach Boychuk

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

Zach Boychuk is one of the Hurricanes most talented forward prospects and has more potential than almost everyone else on this list. He is also one of the organization's most frustrating players because he has still yet to do much of anything in the NHL despite being given multiple chances. He has played 78 games over four seasons (technically three if you want to nitpick) and has amassed only seven goals and 18 points, which is very weak for someone with as much offensive upside as Boychuk. He has spent the majority of his pro career bouncing back and forth between the AHL and NHL while not making much of a splash in the latter. There are a lot of good things to speak of when it comes to Boychuk's AHL production, though.

In 2010-11, Boychuk was a point-per-game player with the Charlotte Checkers and led the team in points. He continued to impress at the AHL level last season by leading the Checkers in goals with 21 and having 44 points in 64 games. So what is keeping Boychuk from having success in the NHL? The door was certainly open for him to make an impact this season with the Hurricanes being desperate for goal-scoring talent. He started the year in Charlotte but he was eventually called up in November and was given another chance in February to make somewhat of a lasting impression. The result? Zero goals and two points in 16 games.

Many have closed the book on Boychuk right now and have labeled him as a bust, but let's remember that he is only 22 years old. Boychuk may not be the player fans hoped he would be, but no one's career is over at 22. Also, when you look at the kind of minutes Boychuk was playing last season, it's hard to say that he was given much of a "chance."

Boychuk played significant minutes in maybe six total games last season and played outside the fourth line in only five of them. Playing him on the fourth line does next to nothing for his development and he honestly would have been better off in Charlotte where he would receive top-six minutes. Boychuk doesn't necessarily "need" top-six minutes to succeed at the NHL level, but using him as a fourth line plug really doesn't do anything at all since his best assets are his play-making skills. The most frustrating thing with Boychuk was that play was going north when he was on the ice and he was making of his minutes whenever he was used outside of the fourth line, but he would always end up back in Charlotte or the fourth line no matter what. 

The coaching staff seemed to keep him on a pretty short leash because Paul Maurice played him in the top-six for three total games before sending him back to his normal role. Nevermind the fact that he was creating chances and driving the play forward in those minutes. Many thought that this would change when Kirk Muller took over but that wasn't the case. Boychuk played two games under Muller, was benched in the second period of the third game and quickly recalled. Three games is a very small sample size but Muller clearly saw something in Boychuk and whatever it was, he didn't like it.

Boychuk's stock is much lower than it was a couple years ago but there is still plenty of hope left for him. Again, he is only 22 and will probably get his chance somewhere down the line. The one major red flag on him is his size since he is only 5"10' and gets knocked off the puck fairly easily but he still has a decent future in the league as a winger. He is a good enough skater and has improved his game in a lot of areas, his puck-possession skills being the main thing he improved this season, so I think he is far from finished and we could see him in the NHL relatively soon. The Hurricanes clearly see some value in him since they re-signed him for another year, although this could be his final chance with the organization.

However, one thing that is going to stand in Boychuk's way is that his skill-set fits best in the top-six and the Hurricanes have no openings there as of right now. He may be in the running for a third line spot but with players like Drayson Bowman fitting a checking role more, he could be lower in the pecking order than he was last season. Boychuk is going to have to make a very lasting impression during training camp to have a chance to make the roster because there are only so many spots right available now and a lot of players to compete with. Boychuk's time with the Hurricanes might be running out but his window of opportunity to make the NHL is still open. My guess is that he will see a call-up sometime this season if an injury to a top-six player occurs and he will get his chance then. What kind of minutes he receives during that call-up is another issue.

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Positives and negatives of the Jeff Skinner contract

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

In what was an incredible coincidence yesterday, I was in the process of writing an article about wanting to extend Jeff Skinner's contract as soon as possible and predicting what kind of money he would get in the deal. When I was half-way done with the article, I noticed a tweet from Hurricanes GM Jim Rutherford saying that they were close to announcing that they had signed Jeff Skinner to a contract extension. This was something I was in favor of because extending Skinner now meant that the team had a chance to get better value for him now than they would if they did it next season. It was also better for the Canes to get this deal done before the current CBA expires so they can keep Skinner around for as long as they want.

Skinner ended up getting a six-year contract worth $34,350,000 that will have a cap hit of $5.725 mil. per season. The deal will pay him $4,350,000 the first year and then $6,000,000 the next five years. As of right now, this contract is an overpayment because the Canes are going to be paying $4.35-6 mil. for the first four years of the deal, which is a lot considering those are RFA years and Skinner has only two years of NHL experience. Now, a cap hit of $5.725 mil. isn't a big deal under the current salary cap and I have little doubt that Skinner can be worth that much as he develops, but the Hurricanes missed out on getting value for Skinner's RFA years.

One of the benefits of extending Skinner now instead of next year was that Rutherford would be in the driver's seat with negotiations and could get Skinner locked up at a slightly lower price than they would if his contract was expiring. They ended up paying about as much as they would if they waited until next year when Skinner becomes an RFA. It's not the worst thing in the world but I was expecting Skinner to get about $550k-$1 mil. less than he did with this deal. The $70.3 mil. salary cap obviously changes a lot of things but there is still the worry about the cap going down again once the new CBA kicks in, especially if there isn't a salary rollback.

Overall, I'm fine with the deal even if the Hurricanes gave Skinner a little more than they should have right now. If the cap stays the same as it is now, then Skinner's $5.725 mil. cap hit shouldn't be too big of a problem and there is a good chance that Skinner is worth that much over the duration of the contract if he continues to improve. He could also give the Hurricanes significant value for their money if he turns into something really special in the next few years, especially since he will now be in Carolina for most of his prime years. Rutherford is paying for potential with this contract but I think he knows that he can't nickel and dime players like Skinner. With that said, I still can't help but feel that Carolina had a chance to get him for a little less than what they are going to be paying for him now.

Still, this isn't a bad deal and the Hurricanes have a pretty solid forward corps locked up for a good few years now with him, the Staals and Tuomo Ruutu under contract until the 2015-16 season. The only major risk with this contract is that the RFA age/year limit could change with the new CBA and the Hurricanes might end up paying $6 mil. for all of Skinner's RFA years and he would still be restricted when the contract runs out. This could mean that the Hurricanes will have to give Skinner an even bigger deal once this next one runs out if they wish to keep him. This issue was out of Rutherford's control though, so we'll have to see how things play out. If the RFA age/year limit stays the same, then the Canes should be fine.

As of right now, the deal is an overpayment by RFA standards but Skinner's value is obviously going to trend upward over the next few years and there is a good chance that he is worth the money/cap hit as he gets older. Rutherford may have been able to get him at a lower cost but this hopefully won't become too big of an issue. Skinner improved a lot last season and was arguably the team's best forward behind Eric Staal even if his goal/point total did show it.

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