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Weekend Prospect Update: CHL

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

As many of you know by now, the Canadian Hockey League started up their regular season this weekend and there were quite a few Carolina Hurricanes prospects who were in action. The most noteworthy name of the bunch is obviously their 2011 first round pick Ryan Murphy, who is serving as the top defenseman and team captain of the Kitchener Rangers but he didn't come close to having the best weekend. That honor would go to Keegan Lowe, the Canes third round pick from the same year who is spending his fourth season with the Edmonton Oil Kings.

Lowe and the Oil Kings started off their season with quite a bang last Thursday with a 5-3 win over the Kootenay Ice and Lowe recording the first Gordie Howe hat trick of the Western Hockey League season. The Oil Kings are the reigning WHL champs and they definitely got their season started on the right foot with wins over Kootenay and Red Deer with Lowe playing a big role in the first victory. Lowe is one of the lesser-known names in the Hurricanes system but that could change soon if he builds off this performance and Caniacs could get a chance to see him at training camp next season. 

So, we know that Lowe's season is off to a great start but what about some of the other youngsters in the Canes system? Find out after the jump.

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Where to watch the Canes during the lockout

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

With a lockout set to begin starting at midnight, there are going to be a lot of fans left upset and heartbroken. The NHL may not have the wide-spread, religious following like the NFL but there are still going to be millions of fans deprived of the most popular hockey league in the world and you can bet that there is going to be a ton of backlash in response. This is going to be the second time that Gary Bettman has locked out the players in the previous 10 years and the last time it happened, the entire season was cancelled and the fans ultimately ended up being the losers of the whole dilemma. I'm sure that the last thing they want to see is for that to happen again but in the end, there isn't anything the fans can do about it.

They can be as enraged about this as they want and try to organize a rebellion through social media but in the end, this is between the owners and the players and the fans probably aren't going through the minds of the owners at the CBA meetings right now. Yes, it's a bummer to know that us, as fans, are basically helpless in this situation but another lockout isn't going to be the end of the world. Is it terrible PR for the NHL and another black mark on their permanent record? Absolutely, but the fans aren't the ones that have to suffer through this whole fiasco.

It's times like this that I remind myself that following the NHL is my choice and I'm the one who voluntarily decides to spend hours watching games, tracking data and spend money going to games and buying merchandise. If the NHL is going to shut itself down for the rest of the season, then I will just have to find something else to do with my time and that is far from the worst thing in the world.

Plus, the game of hockey is not going anywhere while the owners and NHLPA settle their differences. I mentioned this in my article about the Charlotte Checkers a week ago but if it's hockey that Caniacs in the Carolinas want, then all they have to do is make a voyage down to Charlotte. They are also going to see quite a few familiar faces down there this year as it was announced today that Jeff Skinner, Justin Faulk and a few other notable names will be playing with the Checkers during the lockout. Not only that, but there is a good chance that a local hockey team is somewhere near you and they will definitely welcome your support right about now.

The NHL will be back eventually but until then, there are plenty of other ways for fans to get their hockey fix over the next few months. So what am I going to do during the lockout? I can tell you that this blog will stay active and I will continue to write plenty of articles about the Hurricanes and their prospects. There are actually quite a few guys in Carolina's system who will be playing in different leagues next year and the bonus free time should allow us to follow them more closely than before. After the jump, we will take a look at these players, what teams they will be playing for and how you can follow them. 

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Jeremy Welsh re-signs with the Hurricanes

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

The last remaining free agent under team control has been signed as the Hurricanes were finally able to come to terms with Union College star Jeremy Welsh on a two-year contract. The contract is a two-way deal in the first year, where Welsh will be paid $700,000 to play in the NHL and $105,000 in the AHL, it then becomes a one-way contract the next year where he will be paid $1,000,000 no matter where he plays. This is a pretty standard contract for a college free agents since players such as Matt Read and Stephane Da Costa received similar deals at the beginning of their NHL careers. Now that Welsh is finally under contract, we can start to speculate what kind of career he will have with the Hurricanes and as of right now, it's really tough to tell what the Canes will get from Welsh in these two years.

Undrafted college free agents are somewhat of a crap shoot because if you look at a list of them over the years, the names are really all over the place. General manages always seem to be in a rush to sign these players in April in hopes that they will get a useful player at a bargain price, but it's tough figure out what you'll get with UDFA's no matter how good their numbers were in college or whatever other league they were previously in.

Take Welsh for instance, he was more than a point-per-game player during his junior year at Union College (44 points in 40 games) and had 37 points in 40 games the year before that, so that could lead you to believe that he has a great NHL career in front of him. He might, but it's not a given. That certainly makes the outlook very bright for him but there have been more than a few top-performers in college who stayed in the AHL for most of their careers. Is that going to happen to Welsh? Hopefully not, but I wouldn't rule out the possibility since we know so little about him and whether or not he has the tools to succeed in the NHL.

Judging by the contract the Hurricanes gave him, it looks like they see Welsh playing in the NHL as soon as this coming season. If they thought otherwise then they wouldn't have signed him a deal where he's guaranteed at least $1 mil. The popular thought seems to be that he will step into the vacant third-line center role and that wouldn't be a bad option given the Hurricanes have a lot of solid, bottom-six forwards who could flank that line. Welsh plays a gritty, physical style so he should be right at home on the Canes checking line if that's how the Canes decide to use him for next season. He is also in his mid-20's, so he's right around the age where we should know if he is NHL ready or not.

Welsh earning a roster spot out camp isn't a given but it's a definite possibility since Jim Rutherford is pretty high on him and he has some good intangible qualities that could help the Canes. He was the captain of a Union College team that went to the Frozen Four last season and he also seems like the type of player that can improve the Canes forecheck, something that was a big problem for this team last year. I would expect him to get a long look in training camp and be one of the top borderline players to be in the running for that third line center position. That being said, he could spend next season in the AHL, too since he is on a two-way deal and the team could opt to send him there as soon as next week with the lockout pending.

Either way, the future looks bright for Welsh and even though I'm not sure where he will be playing in this organization in this coming season, I have a good feeling that he will be a solid contributor whether he plays in Raleigh or Charlotte. If Welsh is able to stick on the Hurricanes third line for the majority of the year then the Canes should be extremley pleased with what they got out of him.

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A lockout could lead to a stronger team in Charlotte

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

Every single article relating to the NHL over the last few months has been related to the current CBA expiring in less than two weeks and the threat of a lockout if an agreement between the owners and the NHLPA is not reached. The outlook on this whole scenario has been nothing been nothing but gloom and doom from the fans because they have saw the NHL shut itself down for an entire season the last time there was a lockout and the last thing they want to see is it happening again. It doesn't seem like the NHL will go into a lockout for an entire season, but it is very likely that fans could have to go without it for the rest of 2012, which is going to be difficult to cope with if you're starving for some hockey right about now.

This is kind of a difficult time period if you're a hockey blogger like me. Around this time of the year is when I usually start doing projections and previews to give everyone a closer look at the upcoming season but doing that right now seems fruitless because no one knows if the year will start on time or if there will even be a season. If the season does get shortened, then I will be very interested to see what the playoff picture ends up looking like. We've seen a lot of teams have great starts and fall off once they get into the second half of the season (see the Toronto Maple Leafs last year), so playing only half or three-fourths of the season could mean that we end up seeing some new or different teams make the playoffs. Basically, every game would mean a lot more than it normally does and a good/bad stretch of games could end up being the difference between making the playoffs and ending up out of the picture. That is going to play a major impact on a division that's as wide open as the Southeast appears to be right now. 

Whether or not there is a lockout remains to be seen but if a significant portion of the season gets cancelled, Hurricanes fans do not have to travel far to get their hockey fix as the team's AHL affiliate is only a three hour drive away from the PNC Arena. Regardless of what happens with the NHL, the AHL season will still go on and we could see some familiar faces in Charlotte this year if the owners and player's association can not get their differences settled. If you go back to the last lockout, you may recall a Lowell Lock Monsters team (Carolina's AHL affiliate at the time) that featured Eric Staal, Cam Ward and other future Stanley Cup winners like Chad LaRose and Mike Commodore. Both Staal and Ward were only 20 years old and playing under their ELC's while LaRose and Commodore had two-way deals, which allowed all of them to play in the AHL during the lockout and all of them had very successful years that helped Lowell acheive a 100 point season and a playoff birth.

The Checkers could potentially do the same thing if there is a lockout because the Hurricanes have a few players under entry level contracts who are still eligible to play in the AHL, the two biggest names being Jeff Skinner and Justin Faulk. It's pretty interesting to think how strong this Checkers team could be if there is no NHL season because they were a borderline playoff team last year, have a lot of proven NHL talents in Zach Boychuk, Bobby Sanguinetti, Drayson Bowman and Zac Dalpe and could receive a big boost if both Skinner and Faulk are added to the mix. Not only will the team be stronger, but attendance figures at the Time Warner Cable Arena may also go up with some bigger names playing on the team.

As good as this sounds, there are a few things that stand in the way of it happening. The first of which being whether or not Skinner wants to play in the AHL next season because while he is eligible, he may also sign with another league overseas if he wants to play against some tougher competition. I'm not sure if his contract allows him to do that but then again, I'm not completely sure what will happen if no CBA agreement is reached within the next 11 days. The other thing that may stand in the way is whether or not players have to pass through waivers to go through the NHL. My thought is that if there is a lockout, and no NHL season, then waiver rules go out the window because their purpose is to give every player a chance to be in the NHL. Both Skinner and Faulk are exempt from waivers because they are in their ELC's and haven't played in enough games to not be exempt but players like Boychuk, Bowman, Gragnani, Sanguinetti, Samson and many others need to pass through waivers to play in the AHL if those rules are still in effect.

If none of these players have to pass through waivers to play in the AHL during the lockout, then Charlotte is going to have a good looking team for the upcoming AHL season. Unfortunately for the Checkers, other teams are going to get stronger too if other NHL clubs let their younger talents play in the AHL next season. Going back to the lockout year, Lowell had a 100 point season, which was good enough to finish only third in the Atlantic Division. One team that finished ahead of them were the Manchester Monarchs who featured names like Mike Cammalleri, Dustin Brown, Tim Gleason, Tom Kostopoulos, Mike Weaver and Denis Grebeshkov, all future NHL-ers and very good players. You might also remember the league's leading scorer that season was 21-year-old Jason Spezaa of the Binghamton Senators who also went on to win the East Division. The team that took home the Calder Trophy that season was the Philadelphia Phantoms, who had a roster that included Patrick Sharp, RJ Umberger, Joni Pitkanen and Dennis Seidenberg.

So, while the Checkers are going to get stronger, so will other teams and we could see some very interesting names playing in the AHL next season. The Edmonton Oilers' affiliate in Oklahoma City went to the conference semi-finals last season and that team is going to look ridiculous if some of Edmonton's younger players decide to go to the AHL during the lockout. That's just one example but I'm sure there are other AHL clubs who are going to feature some great young, NHL-ready talent in this coming year if there isn't an NHL season. It's going to lead to a very interesting season in the AHL regardless and could lead to some fans and scouts taking notice of some players who may have not been previously recognized.

Another lockout might sound like the end of the world for some people but hockey will still be played regardless. I've spent most of this article talking about the AHL but there is also college hockey, junior hockey and plenty of other leagues around the world to keep you interested until the owners and players association can settle on an agreement. Lucky for Hurricanes fans, they won't have to travel all the way to Massachusetts to get their hockey fix in this season. Is it the same? No, but it's still the game I grew up loving and that is good enough for me.

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Hurricanes sign Patrick Dwyer to a two-year extension

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

Even though the 2011-12 season may not start on time, Jim Rutherford and the Hurricanes front office have remained busy at work with their latest move being giving Patrick Dwyer a two-year contract extension worth a total of $1.8 mil. Dwyer would be entering the final year of his current contract this year, so the Hurricanes have him locked up until 2015 with this new deal. The contract will pay Dwyer $900,000 per year, which is a pretty decent raise compared to the $625,000 that he was making the year before.

This is a relatively low-key signing for the Hurricanes, especially compared to the Skinner extension, but it's a very fair and well-deserved extension for Dwyer who I believe is one of the most under-appreciated players on the team. Dwyer has never been a player who excited people and the 8 goals he scored in 2010-11 may end up being his career high, but he excels at the defensive side of the game and that's what makes him an important player to Carolina. Along with Brandon Sutter and Andreas Nodl, Dwyer was part of the team's shutdown line last season and were regularly matched up against opposing team's top lines. They were also given the burden of starting nearly 70% of their even strength shifts in the defensive zone.

Dwyer's limited offensive skills and tough assignments means that he isn't going to be the type of player who drives the play forward a lot but when it came to limiting opportunities at the other end, Dwyer was one of the best on the team. He was on ice for the fewest amount of chances against at even strength among forwards and only Andreas Nodl was on-ice for fewer goals per 60 minutes at even strength than him. Factor in his ability to draw penalties and the fact that he is one of the team's better penalty killing forwards and the Canes have themselves a very useful player locked up for two more years.

As for the money, $900k is the going rate for most bottom-six player/penalty kill specialists so I don't have any complaints on that front. Nate Thompson, Jay Beagle, Tom Wandell and Shawn Matthias have similar cap hits and all of them play similar roles to Dwyer on their respective teams. Sure, you could probably find similar players to Dwyer for the league minimum but $900k isn't going to put the Hurricanes in cap trouble (or at least it shouldn't but I'm not going to predict what the new CBA will look like) and the deal is easy to move if Dwyer falls out of Carolina's plans in the future. Dwyer was also making around the league minimum for the previous five years and deserved a raise after last season, in my opinion.

Dwyer's value shouldn't be judged by goals and points but I think we will see a better offensive output from him next season because he was the victim of some terrible shooting luck last season. His personal shooting percentage was only 4.2% and the Hurricanes shot at only 4.87% at even strength when he was on the ice. Both of those numbers should improve eventually because I have a hard time believing that Dwyer is going to convert on less than 5% of his shots and less than 7% of his scoring chances next season. Yes, Dwyer has a limited offensive skillset but half of the shots he took were registered as scoring chances by location and he played a lot of minutes to have only five goals and 12 points last season. I'm not saying that he's going to breakout offensively, but he should have a better looking scoring line than last season with some better shooting luck.

The only question I have regarding Dwyer and his future with the team is where he is going to play next season. He was a third liner for all of last season but with Brandon Sutter not on the team anymore and the Canes not having a "shutdown center" right now, I'm not sure how the team plans to use him and Nodl next season. Do they stay as third liners while Jeremy Welsh or Zac Dalpe takes over for Sutter, or do they get bumped to the fourth line with Tim Brent to play a more defensive role? Ultimately, I would love to see Carolina role four lines with Nodl, Brent & Dwyer being the fourth line that is used in strictly defensive situations but that could change depending on what happens over the next few months. 

Regardless of what happens, this is a reasonable extension for Dwyer.

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Hurricanes Top 25 Under 25: #1 Jordan Staal

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

The rankings of this list were based on a number of different factors which are not limited to talent, potential, experience, how high their supposed ceiling is and what they have done so far in all of their respective leagues. With all of those factors in mind, the one final question I had going through my head when rankings these players was, If I was starting a franchise, which player would I be most likely to build a team around? That player ended up being one of the newest members of the Hurricanes, Jordan Staal. 

Now, this wasn't an easy decision to make at all because you could probably make a case for Jeff Skinner being the best player in the organization under 25 years of age. His offensive upside and tremendous goal-scoring talent also makes him a more attractive candidate to build a franchise around. After all, he scored more goals and points in his rookie season than Jordan Staal has ever tallied in a total season, and that was when Skinner was only 18 years old. Skinner is also the kind of player who will get the fans more excited because he has a flashier skillset and is known to show up on the highlight reels on a regular basis. So what made me give Staal the nod over Skinner? Because when it comes down to it, he is the better all-around player right now and hasn't even hit his best years. 

Even though he was primarily a third line center with the Pittsburgh Penguins, Jordan Staal has had a lot of believers out there. There are many who say that he would be a first line center on most teams and he would be more recognized around the league if he wasn't already playing on a club with two of the premiere centers in the NHL. Some might blow off these statements but they aren't completely off-base. Staal has gotten his chance to play big minutes with the Penguins over the last couple of seasons with Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby battling injuries and he has performed well offensively when put into those situations. Staal's 30 points in 42 games during the 2010-11 season would equate to approximately 58 points over a full-82 game season and his 50 points in 62 games last season would translate to 66 points had he been healthy the entire year. Those aren't star-like numbers but they would be good enough to fit on just about any team's top-six and maybe even some team's top lines. Staal has also produced over 2 points per 60 minutes at even strength in three of the last five seasons, so there is no denying that he has top-six potential.

I'm not sure what the chances are of Staal breaking out offensively within the next couple of years (the shooting percentage gods were very kind to him last season) but one thing I do know is that he is going to help the Hurricanes improve their overall territorial game. What makes Staal such a special talent is his ability to score at a top-six rate while playing against some of the toughest minutes the Penguins could give him. Staal was essentially used in a shutdown role by Pittsburgh's coaching staff the last three years and he managed to win the battle at even strength convincingly. He has been in the double digits in corsi differential in two of the last three seasons and that is without getting any sort of zone start push from the coaching staff.

Staal is the type of player who can take tough draws, drive the play forward and be able to keep the puck pinned in the offensive zone once he gets it there. The Hurricanes have desperately needed a player like this for the last few seasons since they have been an extremely poor possession team since their last trip to the playoffs. Some might say that the Canes this type of player in Brandon Sutter, who they traded to Pittsburgh in order to acquire Staal, and while it's true that Sutter played a similar role to Staal, the latter is a better all-around player and has much more offensive talent. Staal gives the Hurricanes that strong, possession center who they have been missing for the last few years. Him along with his brother Eric are going to give the Hurricanes an excellent one-two punch down the middle for years to come.

The other thing that makes a player like Staal valuable is the advantage he can create for other teammates. Him being able to win the battle at even strength while playing tough minutes frees up easier zone starts for the likes of Eric Staal, Tuomo Ruutu, Alex Semin and Jeff Skinner, which could possibly lead to higher offensive outputs from those players. Just look at the results James Neal and Evgeni Malkin had last season. Now, the Hurricanes don't have anyone as talented as those two, so their numbers may not be as gaudy, but I think Eric Staal and Skinner could do some significant damage with a zone start push. Skinner has been getting that for his first two years in the NHL and Staal could possibly help continue this trend if he continues to do what he did in Pittsburgh.

This brings up a good question, though. Can Staal continue to dominate territorially at even strength while playing on a weaker team? The Pens have been one of the best possession teams in the league since Dan Bylsma took over and the Hurricanes have been mediocre to bad since 2009. I am confident that Staal, along with Alexander Semin, will be able to tilt the ice in the Hurricanes favor and improve their underlying numbers. Although, one thing I'm not certain about is his ability to drive the play at as high of a rate as he did in Pittsburgh. He wasn't playing with the stars there but he was playing with a pretty solid territorial player in Tyler Kennedy, aka "The Shot Machine." Kennedy is another player who is able to push the play north with relative ease and could have played a role in Staal's strong underlying numbers, but I think he should be fine without him. The Hurricanes may not have an elite possession-driver to play on Staal's wing, but they have more than enough guys who should be able to get the job done in that role. I am sure that Staal will enjoy getting to play alongside some more offensively talented linemates on a regular basis, too.

It is really hard to believe that Staal is only 23 years old when you look at everything he has accomplished in his career. He has loads of playoff experience including helping the Penguins win the Stanley Cup in 2009, he has been nominated for a Selke, he's already established himself as a legitimate tough-minutes center and was one of the Penguins' top penalty killing forwards. That's quite a resume for someone who isn't even in the prime of his career. Sure, Staal had the luxury of playing on one of the best franchises of the last few years but he was one of the reasons why those Pens teams were so good. He may have been just the "third line center" on the depth chart but it's clear that he made a very big impact in Pittsburgh during his six years with the club and still shows a tremendous amount of promise. This is why the Hurricanes made a huge push to get him and it is also why I believe he is the best player in the organization under 25 years of age.

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Hurricanes Top 25 Under 25: #2 Jeff Skinner

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

A few days ago, I mentioned that Justin Faulk was one of the two players in the Hurricanes system who was able to jump straight into the NHL at a very young age. The other Carolina player who was able to do that was obviously Jeff Skinner as he has already established himself as one of the team's top three forwards and arguably their most talented goal-scorer despite being with the team for only two years. What is even more unbelievable is that he has done all of this before his 20th birthday, which has made a lot of fans excited about what other feats he can accomplish in his career. 

It's hard not to get people excited when you have a 31-goal campaign and take home the Calder Trophy in your rookie season like Skinner did, so you can see why there is so much hype for him in the Carolinas right now. With that comes high expectations and I think everyone knew that it was going to be hard for Skinner to follow up on his incredible rookie season for a number of reasons. The first of which being that Skinner is still only a kid and is still learning the ropes of the NHL but another reason is that Skinner had a lot of things go his way in his rookie year. By that, I mean that he was very fortunate in terms of shooting percentage/luck.

Skinner scored on 14.4% of the shots he took in his rookie season and the Hurricanes, as a team, were shooting at about 11% at even strength when he was on the ice that year, too. Some might attribute Skinner's shooting percentage to his terrific goal-scoring talent but the team wasn't going to continue shooting at such a high rate, so it was reasonable to predict Skinner's point total take a turn downward last season, which is exactly what happened. Skinner saw his personal shooting percentage plummet from 14.4% to 9.5% last season and the Hurricanes shot at only 9.28% at even strength when Skinner was on the ice, a significant drop from the 10.97% they shot at the year before. As a result, Skinner ended up with only 20 goals and 44 points in 64 games. There were some who consider Skinner's sophomore campaign a disappointment because of the underwhelming point boxcar numbers, but was it really a disappointment or just the percentages not going in his favor? A closer look at Skinner's season shows that it is probably the latter because there is evidence showing that Skinner was able to build off his rookie year and he actually improved on it in a number of ways. 

Everyone knows that Skinner is a talented goal-scorer and he showed that in his rookie season, but one thing I wanted to see last year was him becoming a stronger territorial player. Even the most talented goal-scorers have difficulty at driving possession and showing the ability to carry a line in terms of driving the play forward, but Skinner was able to do exactly that last season. After barely breaking even in shot differential and being underwater in scoring chances in his rookie season, Skinner became the team's best forward in terms of relative corsi, even strength scoring chance percentage and scoring chance differential. All of which are positive signs for Skinner going forward because him being able to carry the mail at even strength and push the play forward means that he will likely be an even more effective offensive player in years to come. He was playing soft minutes but he is fine in that kind of role for now since the Hurricanes have (or "had" I should say) other players on the roster who could handle the heavier assignments. If Skinner continues to win the possession battle at even strength, it's very likely that his boxcar numbers will start to improve very soon.

The most important thing to remember about Skinner's sophomore season is that whenever he was on the ice, scoring chances were going in Carolina's favor. Almost every Carolina player saw their scoring chance percentage at even strength increase whenever they got to play on a line with him, which speaks highly of his ability to carry a line. One of the main reasons why Skinner is able to drive possession at a high rate is because he shoots the puck more often than almost anyone else on the team.

Carolina Hurricanes Shots per 60 minutes

Player 10-11 11-12
LaRose 8.41 10.29
Skinner 8.601 9.478
Bowman 7.269 8.522
Semin 9.485 8.42
E. Staal 8.662 7.556
Ruutu 6.064 7.481
J. Staal 5.643 7.09
Tlusty 5.448 6.738
Dwyer 6.506 6.394
Stewart 6.131 6.031
Nodl 6.41 5.567
Brent 4.34 4.672
Jokinen 6.114 4.594

Skinner is able to get the puck on net at a very high rate and the amount of offense he generates is even more impressive when you factor in his age. He has managed to be one of the team's best offensive players despite being a teenager for his first two seasons in the NHL. Our look at shot locations yesterday also showed that most of the shots he recorded were quality scoring chances, so he wasn't firing blanks. The same goes for his performance on the powerplay.

Player 10-11 11-12
Skinner 9.682997 11.71276
E. Staal 11.45811 10.05645
LaRose 2.962963 9.535846
Stewart 12.12903 8.551272
J. Staal 6.342974 8.264731
Ruutu 6.815957 8.07326
Tlusty 20.57143 7.992185
Brent 2.006152 7.346939
Bowman 5.617978 7.269071
Dwyer 4.904766 6.486486
Semin 9.772455 6.484817
Jokinen 7.382598 6.201411
Nodl 7.017544 0

Skinner's ability to generate a high amount of shots is a good thing regardless because it means the Hurricanes have the puck in the opponent's end more times than not and are able to keep it there for the most part. He is a machine when it comes to creating offense and that is something that is going to benefit the Hurricanes for a long time as the Hurricanes have him locked up for most of his prime years.

With all that being said, there have been some concerns about Skinner that have popped up over the last year or so. He isn't the best player in his own zone, which is expected because he is primarily an offensive weapon and not an all-around player. He could be one some day, but his play isn't quite there yet and that is reflected by Paul Maurice and Kirk Muller's use of him at even strength. Personally, I don't worry much about Skinner's defensive flaws since that isn't his game and he doesn't need to be an all-around player at this moment in time.

What I am worried about is how he has been taken advantage of by bigger players on the opposing team. Skinner isn't a physical player by any means and he is small compared to other players and it has led to him taking some punishing hits by larger defensemen and he ended up suffering a concussion as a result of one of these blows. This is something that neither Skinner or the Hurricanes have much control over because there isn't much you can do to stop bigger players from delivering huge hits that sometimes result in injuries. Having Milan Lucic and Shawn Thornton on the Bruins didn't stop Marc Savard from being taken out by Matt Cooke a few years ago and signing an enforcer isn't going to prevent Skinner from getting hurt in the future. Unless you take hitting out of the game, things like this are going to continue.

On a related note, another thing Skinner has been criticized for is his attitude. He does some things between the whistles that I'm not too proud of and some teams may have taken notice of this and targeted him for that reason. The fact that he embellishes a lot probably gets under the skin of opposing teams, as well. A couple of his actions have also gotten the notice of the league's disciplinary office and have even gotten him suspended on one occasion. Some might think that Skinner's attitude problem could escalate into a bigger issue soon but it's important to remember what I said earlier; Skinner is still just a kid. Give him one or two more years in the league and he will learn to cut out the non-sense and play with a cooler head. 

As for him embellishing, this isn't much of a problem for the Hurricanes because Skinner draws a lot of penalties for exactly that reason and it works to the Hurricanes advantage. Drawing penalties is somewhat of an underrated skill and it's something that Skinner doesn't get enough credit for because he is one of the best players in the league at doing this. Maybe not a lot of people notice this because the Hurricanes powerplay hasn't been great the last few years, but Skinner gives the team a huge advantage by drawing at least two penalties per 60 minutes, and I'm willing to bet that he embellishes on most of the calls. This "skill" makes Skinner one of those player who you love if he is on your team, but hate if you're a fan of a rival club, similar to Dustin Brown of the Los Angeles Kings.

With Jeff Skinner, it isn't all about goals and points as he was able to have an outstanding sophomore year in my eyes despite having a lower point total than he did the previous year. Before his injury, he was the team's best forward and looked stronger in a lot of areas compared to his rookie year. He is only 20 years old and is already a machine when it comes to creating offense and generating scoring chances, so all the Hurricanes can do now is sit back and look forward to how he develops throughout the remainder of his contract. I can already tell you that it's going to be a lot of fun to witness.

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Hurricanes Top 25 Under 25: #3 Justin Faulk

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

A point that I have constantly refuted with most of the players in this feature is that it usually takes a few years for them to develop and they likely won't be playing in the NHL everyday until they are in their 20's. For the Hurricanes, Justin Faulk has been one of the two exceptions to that rule. When you have a defenseman in your organization who is only 19 years old, most hope that he may turn into a great/useful NHL player someday. Faulk only turned 20 years old in March and is already a top-four defenseman in the NHL.

It's really amazing to look at how much Faulk has accomplished over the last 18 months. He was part of a National Championship winning Minnesota-Duluth Bulldogs squad last April and then played with the Charlotte Checkers in the AHL playoffs only a few weeks later. He then went onto make the Carolina Hurricanes out of camp last season and became part of the full-time roster in November. If that wasn't impressive enough, Faulk was relied on to play some heavy minutes for the Canes despite being at such a young age. Faulk played more minutes per game than any other Carolina blue-liner last year and was a key contributor in all three areas of the game. In addition to that, he was being tested against some pretty tough opponents as he ranked third among Carolina defensemen in quality of competition.

Now, Faulk didn't come out of this unscathed as he was in the red in terms of the amount of shots he was on-ice for and gave up a lot of chances at even strength, but his performance was very good for a rookie who was carrying an enormous workload. Despite his young age, Faulk showed a ton of composure in his own end and his defensive play was actually very impressive. He managed to do this while regularly playing against opposing team's top-sixes and playing on the Hurricanes second PK unit. I should also mention that he was the team's strongest penalty killing defenseman. This was probably the most surprising thing about his rookie season because Faulk was projected to be somewhat of a high-risk, offensive defenseman but he plays a very fundamentally sound game, especially for a kid his age. I still think Faulk has some work to do with his decision making but at this point in his career, he is far ahead of where most expected him to be, and that is a good sign.

Faulk's rookie season is even more impressive when you take his age into context. Since the lockout, there have only been a handful of defensemen who played full seasons in the NHL before they turned 20 and Faulk is in good company with many of the players on this list. He may not reach the heights that Jim Rutherford compared him to weeks ago, but the Canes definitely have a special player on their hands here. He wasn't as good as the likes of Drew Doughty or Tyler Myers in their rookie seasons but he was used in similar situations as those two and his performance wasn't terribly far off. That being said, Cam Fowler and Zach Bogosian are probably better comparables for Faulk if you look at each player's quality of competition rankings on their respective clubs. Once again, that's pretty good company to be in.

It is going to be tough for Faulk to live up to expectations next year because his rookie campaign was so good that everyone might forget that he's still just a kid and learning his way around the NHL. However, if he does improve on his rookie season then it's pretty amazing to think about what player he will be in his mid-20's. We're starting to see more young blue-liners break into the league and become top 20-40 defensemen in the league at young ages, so the future is very bright for Faulk but there are things he can improve on.

I said earlier that he played a fundamentally sound game but he was still on ice for a lot of chances against at even strength, so I would expect him to improve on that next season by playing an even stronger game in his own zone. I'm not sure what he can do to improve on that other than improve his physical play to make life tough for opposing forwards. He isn't the best shot blocker either but it's better if he isn't relied on to block shots constantly since that's not his top asset. Plus, Faulk should be spending more time in the opponent's end of the rink since he is a good enough skater and puck-handler to be the type of player that drives possession at even strength. He wasn't the best in that area last season but given his skillset and the amount of chances he produced last season, I think we will see that improve over time.

In addition to having stronger underlying numbers, another thing I am hoping for Faulk to improve on next year is his even strength point production. Five of the eight goals and 12 of the 22 points he recorded last season came on the powerplay, so he wasn't exactly an offensive force despite being on ice for a lot of chances at even strength. He was very good on the powerplay but a look at his 5-on-4 shooting percentage shows that his production there could be prone to regress next season. Faulk was on ice for 20 powerplay goals but the volume of shots he was on ice for was pretty low while the Canes had the man advantage, so that makes me a tad skeptical of how his 5-on-4 numbers will look next season. His overall numbers, however, should be fine because he had very poor shooting luck at even strength despite producing a lot of scoring chances. It's possible that his improvement at even strength could cancel out the decline in powerplay production, should it occur.

There are a lot of reasons to be excited about Faulk right now. It's tough to find someone who could possibly be a franchise defenseman in the second round of the draft and it's even more rare for someone of Faulk's age to play in the situations that he did last season. The possibilities are endless for him right now and it should be a thrill to watch him in years to come.

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Hurricanes Top 25 Under 25: #4 Ryan Murphy

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

If you were to ask anyone who the Carolina Hurricanes top prospect is right now, the unanimous answer would likely be defenseman Ryan Murphy. Sure, you may have a few people say either Jeff Skinner or Justin Faulk but it is hard to call either a "prospect" right now since they both playing significant roles on the NHL club while Murphy is still unproven. The former 2011 first round selection has yet to play an NHL game but Carolina fans have gotten the chance to see him in action numerous times and always seem to be impressed when they watch him. The fans weren't the only ones who have been impressed with him, though. Murphy's performance at the Traverse City Tournament and in training camp also caught the eyes of the Carolina front office as they quickly signed him to a three-year entry level deal and kept him on the NHL roster to begin the season.

Despite that, Murphy watched the first three regular season games from the press box and was quickly sent back to Kitchener, which was probably the right move given the high number of defensemen the Hurricanes were carrying on the roster at the time. Murphy is going to have his chance to make the team again this year since the Carolina defense is going to need all the help they can get but he might be better off spending another year in Kitchener. Why? Because at only 19 years old, Murphy is probably only a third pairing defenseman right now and the Canes won't be getting max value out of his ELC if they use him in that role. Plus, the Canes have a lot of offensive-minded defensemen already looking to make the team and offense is at least 70% of Murphy's game. 

That isn't an exaggeration. Murphy is a player with some incredibly offensive gifts as he has put up huge numbers from the blue-line during his time with the Kitchener Rangers. He was more than a point-per-game player the last two seasons and was second on the Rangers in goals in the 2010-11 season with 26, trailing only Gabriel Landeskog. His skating and puck-handling skills make him a very dangerous offensive defenseman and he has certainly proven that during his time in Kitchener. Now the question is can Murphy translate this success to the NHL and how long will it take him to get there?

The Hurricanes seem to think Murphy is going to be ready within the next year, so we may get to see what he is all about very soon. One thing we know about him is that he is a great offensive talent and has a high-risk, high-reward style of play. We can talk for hours about how he needs to "work on his game in his own zone" and be more of an all-around player but that is going to take a bit of time. What makes Murphy such a great player are his offensive skills and he has been used to playing this certain style for awhile now. He is going to make mistakes (i.e. committ turnovers, get caught deep, make mistakes in coverage, etc.) and fans are going to have to deal with that because Murphy is young and has an aggressive approach to the game. Murphy may never become the ideal two-way defenseman that everyone loves to have, but what he can do is learn to make better decisions with the puck and be a little less careless in his own zone. These are skills that Murphy can improve on as he gets older and all the Hurricanes can do is ease him into the NHL as he adjusts to the NHL.

Murphy can learn to be more responsible but his size is something that might stand in his way of being a top defenseman at the next level. He stands at a little under six feet tall and weighs around 160-170 lbs., which is pretty small for an NHL defenseman. Murphy can always get bigger since he isn't even 20 years old yet, but he is still under-sized and that could end up being a problem soon. That isn't to say that smaller players can't succeed, but this along with his lack of physical play might limit the ways that Carolina can utilize him. Let's just say that he could end up more like Kris Russell instead of Kris Letang if his size really becomes an issue. It's also worth mentioning that he has suffered a concussion within the last year.

That being said, Murphy is still a very special talent and could develop into a fantastic player if the Hurricanes handle him the right way. Whether or not this means he should be in the NHL next year will depend on how he looks come training camp and what the front office thinks of him. Murphy is coming off a bit of a tough season by his standards, a large part of that is due to the concussion he sustained early in the year but he was still very effective when healthy and had a good showing in the OHL playoffs with 22 points in 20 games.

It is easy to make the argument that Murphy has nothing to gain by playing another year in juniors but when you look at the overall picture, it makes a little more sense. Murphy is still a year away from AHL eligibility so the Canes will have Murphy on the big club for the entire year if they decide to keep him, and he likely won't get above the third pairing in his rookie season. If the Hurricanes want to get the most out of Murphy's ELC years, then using him in a third-pairing role with limited ice time on an already crowded defense corps probably isn't the best way to go. Factor in the concussion and sending him back to junior doesn't seem like the worst decision in the world unless he blows people away in training camp (if there is one).

The fans and the front office are probably excited to see this kid contribute to the NHL but I think it's going to take some time before Murphy is fully ready. I think he will have a good career but, as I mentioned earlier, Murphy is going to make some mistakes along the way and it's probably best to stay patient with him for now. My personal expectations for Murphy next season are somewhat low but I can guarantee you that the bar will be raised in a year or two.

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Hurricanes Top 25 Under 25: #5 Jamie McBain

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

There isn't much to say about Jamie McBain that hasn't already been gone over because he was the focal point of a lot of discussion among Carolina fans this year. He started off the year as a healthy scratch but he quickly made his way back into the lineup and the injury to Joni Pitkanen along with the eventual trade of Tomas Kaberle opened up a lot of new doors for him. As a result, Carolina fans got to see McBain at his best and at his worst plenty of times this season so there were a lot of different opinions of him going around.

You aren't going to find many people saying that McBain is an emerging star, but a good amount of Carolina fans see him as a key part of the Carolina defense corps since he has regularly played big minutes in his young NHL career. On the other side of the coin, you have people who see McBain as a defensive liability and a player who constantly makes them want to throw objects at their television sets because he always seemed to be involved in the play when the opposing team scores. So which side is correct here?

I have watched McBain closely through this past season and have determined that McBain is roughly in the middle of the two ends of the spectrum. McBain supplied a lot of the Hurricanes offense this year as he was on ice for a little over four scoring chances at even strength per 15 minutes, which is a pretty good rate for a defenseman. The problem? He was on ice for about the same amount of scoring chances against at even strength, so McBain was giving a lot back at the other end, as well. McBain was still the Hurricanes third highest ranked defenseman in even strength scoring chance differential despite that. He also ranked second among Carolina defensemen in corsi relative, showing that he was slightly better at driving possession than his teammates.

That may come as a surprise to some Carolina fans because for most of the season, it seemed like the Canes didn't know what they were going to do with McBain. If having too many puck-moving defenseman is an embarrassment of riches then that is what the Hurricanes have on their hands right now. With so many of these players in the system (and many of them on the NHL team), some of them are going to be forced into roles that they aren't ready for and the Hurricanes tried to do this with McBain after Pitkanen was injured. McBain was promoted to the shutdown pair with Tim Gleason for most of December and was then bumped back down to the third pairing with Jaroslav Spacek after he returned from injury sometime in January. It was in the latter role which McBain began to shine.

Spacek and McBain were utilized mostly in offensive situations and McBain really excelled in this role. These two were the Hurricanes best defense pairing at controlling scoring chances last season and part of the reason was due to the fact that they received the softest minutes on the team. They were rarely matched up against the opposing team's top-six, started most of their shifts in the offensive zone (this applies to Spacek more than McBain) and played fewer minutes than the rest of the defense. So while these two made the most of their ice time and took advantage of their softer minutes, they were still given a push by the coaching staff and that played a big role in their success as a unit. 

Something positive that you can take away from the last two years is that McBain has proven himself as a capable third pairing defenseman. His main responsibilities involve creating offense, moving the puck out of the defensive zone and working the powerplay, all three being areas that McBain is skilled in and has done for Carolina since his arrival. He has also been called upon to do more in the event of an injury but the results have been mixed in those situations. You can see from McBain's WOWY that he and Joni Pitkanen have struggled in a top-four role and McBain does not kill penalties either, so it has left some people worried about his development and what his supposed ceiling is.

It might be frustrating to look at McBain right now if you compare him to Justin Faulk, but I honestly do not think there is much to be concerned about with the rate McBain is developing at. Defensemen in general take a long time to mature and McBain is only 24 years old, so he still has time to grow and could possibly develop into a more dependable top-four option in due time. As of right now, he is a very good third pairing defenseman and a borderline top-four guy, which is roughly in line with most defensemen who are in his age group. Compare him to Marc-Eduoard Vlasic, Nikita Nikitin or Karl Alzner and you're going to be disappointed but McBain's play isn't too far off from the likes of Kevin Shattenkirk, Luca Sbisa, Jason Demers and Cody Franson. None of those players are stars, but they are all useful defensemen on their respective teams and have a decent amount of potential, as well.

Whether or not McBain will live up to that potential remains to be seen but as of right now, he is an everyday player for the Hurricanes and a very solid third pairing defenseman. Carolina decided to reward him with a two year contract extension with a $1.8 mil. cap hit, which is where his value is now as a third-pairing defenseman. The Hurricanes should have plenty of time to evaluate McBain over the next couple of years and determine whether or not they see him in the team's long-term plans. We know that he is a good bottom-pairing guy right now and has the potential to do more, but McBain could have to step into a bigger role in the next couple of years if he wants to stay in Carolina after his new deal runs out. I said this earlier, but the Canes have a lot of puck-moving defensemen in their system and while McBain has an advantage over the rest since he is in the NHL right now, he might have to do more in the next couple of years to make himself stand out.

McBain is fine where he is right now but there is always room for improvement, and with the Hurricanes needing someone to play with Tim Gleason, McBain has a good chance to show that he can be more than what he has shown so far.

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