Stanley Cup Final Preview & Prediction

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

The best thing about the NHL playoffs is that almost anything can truly happen in a seven-game series. When the sample size is that small, there are so many things that can occur. Any goalie can get hot and steal a series for a lesser team, a player or a line can tear it up after a disappointing season or the league's best powerplay can dry up and it will decide the outcome of a series for some teams. This is why the "best team" during the regular season doesn't always win the Cup. The higher seeded team is always at an advantage, yes but a lot of other things need to go right for them if they want to win it all. There are just so many different things that can go right or wrong for any team in a series that it makes most predictions look foolish in the end.

The idea that "anything can happen" has never been more true this post-season as the Stanley Cup Final is between the 6th and 8th seeds from their respected conferences and the eight seed might be the favorite going in. That team would be the Los Angeles Kings, who have made short work of their playoff opponents by defeating all three in just 14 short games. The higher seeded team, the New Jersey Devils, finished fourth in the Atlantic Division in the regular season but here they are in the Finals now. The Devils were perceived to be a weaker team than the Rangers and the Flyers but they managed to get past them in 11 games which was partially due to luck and the Devils being a better team than their seeding indicates. Just like how the Kings are a better team than what most 8 seeds are considered to be.

This is why I'm against making predictions for the most part. I like going into a series knowing that anything can happen and that a huge upset might be just around the corner. It seems that mindset has been in line with this year's playoffs more than any other season in recent memory and the final matchup this year is one that could go in either direction. Therefore, any prediction I make can easily end up being completely different from what I think will happen, but I'm going to make one anyway.

Find out what I have to say about this year's final after the jump.

no comments

Playoff Preview: Phoenix Coyotes vs. Chicago Blackhawks

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

The Coyotes really have bad luck with drawing the worst possible first round opponents possible as their first round matchup is the Chicago Blackhawks, a team that a lot of people think are good enough to go to the Stanley Cup Finals. That's not to say that Phoenix will be a complete pushover but the matchup doesn't look very good for them at all. There are a couple playoff teams who I think Phoenix can defeat, but I'm not sure if the Blackhawks are one of those teams.

That said, the 'Yotes have their advantages over the Blackhawks and could possibly win this series. We'll look into those more after the jump.

no comments

Playoff Preview: St. Louis Blues vs. San Jose Sharks

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

Much like the Vancouver-Los Angeles series, the #2 vs. #7 matchup between the San Jose Sharks and St. Louis Blues looks to be a lot closer than the team's seedings indicate. In one corner, we have the Blues who have quietly assembled a great foundation over the last few years and are now seeing it pay off as they are sitting pretty at #2 in the Western Conference. In the other corner, we have the hard-luck kids known as the San Jose Sharks who were expected to contend for the Cup (yet again) but ended up not earning a playoff spot until the last week of the season.

I am willing to bet that if you asked almost any fan at the beginning of the season which one of these teams would be one of the best in the Western Conference and which one would be battling for one of the final playoff spots, they would probably guess the Sharks for the former and the Blues for the latter. It hasn't quite worked out that way, obviously and it's actually been more of the opposite. Most pundits are impressed with what Ken Hitchcock has done with the Blues this season and have them winning in a short series, but I think it'll be much more difficult for them. Find out why after the jump.

no comments

Nashville Predators vs. Detroit Red Wings Game 1 Scoring Chances

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

I enjoyed being part of the scoring chance project so much this season that I decided to take the liberty to track a few playoff series. While most of the teams in the playoffs have people tracking for them already, there are still many who are not tracked and two of them are the Detroit Red Wings and the Nashville Predators. To fill that void, I will be tracking chances for this series and possibly a few more if I have time. The Predators are one of the teams this year that has managed to stay near the top of their conference despite being a weak team by standard puck possession metrics like Corsi & Fenwick. Tracking scoring chances will help us find out how much "shot quality" comes into play for them and if it's one of the reasons why they have been so successful this season.

Unfortunately, tonight's game didn't really explain much at all because of how unorthodox it was. A little under 40% of the game was played at special teams because the refs were calling pretty much anything that resembled a penalty and it led to special teams dictating the pace of play. Whichever team had the most powerplays in a given period had the advantage in chances and there isn't much that can be said about either team's play at even strength because not many chances were recording during five-on-five play.

What I can tell you is that 15 of the 34 the scoring chances that were recorded tonight were at even strength, so this was basically a special teams battle for most of the game. To make things even stranger, the Preds ended up winning 3-2, outscored the Wings 3-0 at even strength, two of which were very fluky goals, and weren't very efficient on the powerplay despite having 10 minutes with the man advantage. 

Like I said, it was an odd game so there's not much that can be determined from this other than Pekka Rinne was probably the best player on the ice tonight and that the Preds did a nice job of preventing the Wings from doing much of anything on their last minute rush.

After the jump, we'll take a look at some of the raw numbers from this game.

no comments

Playoff Preview: Nashville Predators vs. Detroit Red Wings

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

The Nashville Predtaors are a team that has been driving stat nerds crazy all season. They are 4th in the West with 104 points despite having the second worst Fenwick close percentage in the league and getting outshot in almost every single game they've played. How can a team that spends so much time in their own zone be good enough to earn the 4th seed in the playoffs? Goaltending and special teams, or at least that's been the case for the Preds this year.

Even though the Red Wings are the lower seeded team, I don't think them winning this series will be surprising to a lot of people. The Wings are easily one of the best teams in the league when it comes to controlling the play and they were lucky enough to draw one of the worst teams in that category in the first round. Does this mean that this series will be easy for them? Not quite. The overall numbers for both team speak for themselves but anything can happen in a seven game series, which should be the Preds motto going into this because a lot of the data doesn't speak in their favor.

no comments

Playoff Preview: Vancouver Canucks vs. Los Angeles Kings

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

In last year's playoffs, the Canucks drew one of the toughest first round opponents they could have asked for in the Chicago Blackhawks and barely made it out of that series alive. Unfortunately, the same thing happened to them this season as they will be taking on the Los Angeles Kings in what should be one of the most anticipated matchups of the first round.

Now, the Kings have had a lot of trouble scoring this season but they have been playing some terrific hockey all year and it's really picked up since the trade deadline. They might actually be one of the most dangerous teams this postseason and I think Vancouver is about to find out the hard way. Is history going to repeat itself or will the Canucks make this an easy series? We'll talk about that after the jump.

no comments

Playoff Preview: Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Philadelphia Flyers

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

We are now at the series that as being regarded as the best of the first round. I have different opinions on that, but I do think that this will be a very entertaining series as it features two of the best teams in the Eastern Conference. It's a shame that one of these teams has to go out in the first round because I think both are capable of pulling off a great run, especially this season. 

Going by the season series, one could say that the Flyers have the upper-hand in this series but the Penguins have played better in this series than the final scores indicate. In some of the games they lost against Philly, the Pens outshot and outplayed the Flyers for most of those games but fell victim to poor goaltending and it ended up sinking them. The team's second to last meetings is a fine example of that.

Both teams have undergone various roster changes over the season, too with so many different players getting hurt and returning throughout the year. Therefore, going by the season series isn't going to tell you everything you need to know about this series. After the jump, we'll take a closer look at both teams and determine who will advance to the second round.

no comments

Playoff Preview: Florida Panthers vs. New Jersey Devils

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

The long playoff drought in Florida is over as the Panthers made the playoffs for the first time in over a decade this year by winning the Southeast Division. I'm very happy for them and their fans but one thing to keep in mind is that they won an awful division and are probably the weakest team in the playoffs. Their goal differential is among the worst in NHL history for a division winner and over half of their points were accumulated in one goal games, 18 of which coming in overtime and shootout losses.

Does this mean that they are destined for a first round exit? Teams that earn a lot of their points in close games generally don't do well in the playoffs so it's easy to see why people think this is a good draw for the Devils but I don't think this is a complete mismatch. The Devils have also been involved in a lot of one-goal games and have the second highest winning percentage in the league in that category. New Jersey also has 12 shootout victories so I think it's unfair to discount Florida solely because of this as the Devils have clearly gotten a bit lucky this season too.

That being said, New Jersey plays in a tougher division and plays more difficult opponents so I think they deserve some slack but I still think that Florida will not completely lie down for them in this series. Does this mean I think they can win the series? You'll find that out after the jump.

no comments

Playoff Preview: Boston Bruins vs. Washington Capitals

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

When people were making their pre-season predictions, many had this as a possible Eastern Conference final. The Bruins did their part of winning their division and locking up the #2 seed but the Capitals have been struggling all year and barely made it into the playoffs. They've been marred by injuries, inconsistencies and coaching problems but they managed to make it do the dance. Unfortunately for Caps fans, making the playoffs hasn't been an issue in years past, it's been having success after that.

Can Washington manage to get over the hump and pull of an upset in the first round. We will see what the odds of that are after the jump.

no comments

Playoff Preview: Ottawa Senators vs. New York Rangers

Written by Corey Sznajder on .

It's the most wonderful time of the hockey year and I am going to celebrate it by breaking down every series. I will also be tracking scoring chances, this one I'm about to talk about not being one of them. The Ottawa Senators and New York Rangers both have terrific bloggers who already track scoring chances for their respective teams and I am sure that they are looking forward to what should be a great series. I have a feeling that this series should be a lot closer than most people are predicting because Ottawa is a little better than a lot of people give them credit for and at the same time, the Rangers aren't as good as their #1 seed indicates.

We will break this series down after the jump.

no comments

You Might Like...

Top Stories