It's depressing that this will be the fourth year in a row that the Hurricanes failed to make the playoffs, but there are still plenty of exciting matchups to talk about in this year's first round. The shortened season was going to lead to a lot of interesting outcomes for this year's post-season and it certainly delivered on that promise, as three new teams from the Eastern Conference made the playoffs, a few of which not many expected. I'm sure that most would have laughed at you four months ago if you said that Montreal would win the Northeast after being the second worst team in the NHL last year. They would have done the same thing if you went onto predict that the Islanders would make the playoffs while the New Jersey Devils, last year's Eastern Conference champs, would be on the outside looking in. At least the Southleast Division lived up to its mantra of sending in only one team. Regardless, it looks like NHL fans are in for another exciting first round this year and there are a few series that could really go either way.

I'm sure that each of the fan blogs for these respective teams are working around the clock to break down their own series, but writing playoff predictions and previews is kind of a "tradition" for hockey bloggers, so I figured that I'll post mine here anyway. Most of people's playoff predictions are often based on picking whichever team is the "hottest" coming into the post-season or which team has the most experience on their roster. As most of you know, I have a different approach when it comes to predictions. I'm going to take a look at each series and see how each team matches up in terms of even strength play, how lucky they have gotten and how they have performed on special teams. Luck has played a huge role in a lot of teams making it in since this is a shortened year, so be prepared to see plenty of interesting matchups after the jump where I'll break down each series.

This season didn't go nearly as well as most Carolina fans thought it would. Instead of competing for a playoff spot, the Canes finished with a bottom-five record in the NHL and the only thing they have to hang onto is that they'll probably get a good building piece in the upcoming NHL Draft. The team was in a good position for awhile but they ended the season going 4-16-3 which effectively removed them from contention both in the Southeast and the playoff race. This team was far from perfect and struggles were going to happen, but I don't think anyone predicted a fall from grace like this happening. The popular explanation from most pundits are that the injury to Cam Ward sunk their season since the team went 10-19-3 without him, but there have been a lot of other different reasons drawn up, too. The Canes have been described as a team that is "soft," "fragile" with their biggest criticism being that they aren't "tough to play against" and that is ultimately why they aren't in the post-season.

I'm not doubting any of those claims since this team has a tendency to unravel once things started going wrong but I felt that there were other factors that contributed to this team falling apart down the stretch. Some of which they had control over and others they did not. There were going to be a lot of strange things happening in a shortened season (The Leafs are in the playoffs for starters), and things like injuries, luck and hot streaks were going to play a role in which teams made the post-season. Unfortunately for the Hurricanes, they were on the negative end of just about all of these things which magnified the flaws they already had. Thus, they find themselves waiting for the Draft Lottery announcement on Monday instead of preparing for a playoff series.

As far as the Hurricanes collapse goes, there are five things in particular that I feel contributed to it.

There have been a lot of things that have led to the Hurricanes collapse over the last month but one of the most popular explanations for it is Cam Ward's injury. Ever since Ward sprained his MCL, the Canes are 7-16-3 and their even strength save percentage has plummeted from an average .920 to .910. Bad goaltending can sink any team and the Hurricanes have experienced that first-hand this season with both Dan Ellis and Justin Peters going through rough patches in his relief. Finding a back-up for Cam Ward has never been an easy task and many thought the Hurricanes solved this problem this year by bringing in Dan Ellis during training camp. Now that he and Peters have struggled after being thrusted into a starting role, it has many people lobbying for the Canes to find a back-up goalie this summer.

As far next season goes, the who the Hurricanes have under contract aside from Ward is Justin Peters. Peters is on a one-way deal making $500,000 next year, so this makes the situation a little more difficult than usual. If he isn't on the team or traded by next year, he will have to pass through waivers and be paid an NHL salary in the AHL. This is something that Hurricanes might be reluctant to do because it's paying extra money to a player who won't even be on the team. However, has Peters done enough to make anyone confident about him being the back-up goalie next year?

Personally, I think he has been taking too much fo the blame for the Canes struggles since the defense has been very bad and the team has struggled to score on a lot of his starts, but his numbers are all over the place. Not only for this season, but for his entire career.

All goalies are random by nature, but Peters' lows have been very bad over his career. Like, below replacement level bad and one of those stretches came earlier this year. Peters also has a career save percentage of .900 over 46 starts and 1288 shots faced. This is still a very small sample size to judge a goalie on, but it's very hard to be confident in a back-up goalie with a career save percentage that's around replacement level. Ward has been able to stay healthy over most of his career, but he has taken on a ton of mileage in recent years and would benefit from a goalie who can spell him whenever he needs a night off. I'm not sure if Peters is that guy.

What about Dan Ellis, though? He has similar issues.

Ellis has also been prone to some extreme highs and lows over his career with his most recent low coming after he experienced a leg laceration that somehow kept him out for only two weeks. Prior to the injury, Ellis was playing very well and had a respectable save percentage of .918. Since then, he has a save percentage of .885 and has allowed three or more goals in all but one of six games and has been chased in two of them. Not the performance you want from a goaltender in the latter part of the season, but Ellis' overall numbers from the year really are not terrible.

A save percentage of .908 is about what you would expect from a back-up and his even strength save percentage is an average .920. Ellis' numbers from earlier in the year were unsustainable but his recent struggles appear to be more injury-related than anything else. I've heard some people say that he is at the end of his career, couldn't handle the pressure of being a #1 goalie and the hockey gods were "punishing" him for throwing the team under the bus after a couple of games. Seeing all of thiese claims come up is kind of funny to me because an injury seems more believable. He had his leg cut open by a skate blade on March 21st and returned only 13 days later. For reference, Cam ward suffered a similar injury in 2009 and was out for over a month. Given that piece of information, it seems plausible to me that Ellis rushed back from the injury and it affected his play.

In a full-season, Ellis would ahve to play about 20 games or so to give Ward enough nights off. He has been able to do this plenty of times over his career, but does he still have enough left in the tank to do it now? Possibly. Something you need to remember is that most back-up goaltenders are not of great quality and the most you would expect out of them is a save percentage of .910-.915. Sure, there have been outliers in recent history (Brian Elliott) and some teams like Vancouver have the luxury of two starting quality goaltenders but the league average save percentage of a back-up goalie is usually about .908 to .913. Ellis has been able to give his teams these results for most of his career.

Compare Ellis' save percentage with the yearly average of back-up goaltenders and his numbers have been roughly in line with that. The one exception being his 2010-11 season where he was the Tampa Bay Lightning's 1A/B goaltender and completely bottomed out. I also included Justin Peters' yearly save percentage here and his numbers are a bit more extreme from playing fewer games. I still think the book is still out on him since he hasn't played that much overall, but Ellis is more of a sure-thing. Unfortunately, Ellis is still only an average back-up at best but that might be all the Hurricanes need while Peters is more of a black-box who has been below replacement level in some years.

So the Hurricanes options on the roster right now for back-up goaltender are a veteran back-up with a low ceiling in Ellis and an inexperienced netminder in Peters who has bad more times than not. Some might say that they want neither, but compare them to the options in free agency and Ellis becomes slightly more appealing. Most teams tend to lock-up their goaltenders long-term, so there are never many great names available on the market and that is the case this year. The Hurricanes may only need a back-up, but even the options there are limited. In addition to Ellis, the back-up goaltenders who are free agents this coming summer include names like Chris Mason, Jose Theodore, Al Montoya, Mathieu Garon, Jason LaBarbera and Thomas Greiss. Greiss and LaBarbera are the only two who have a better save percentage than Ellis and the former has played in only six games. Ellis' career numbers are also favorable compared to them.

The Hurricanes options for a back-up goalie this summer are to either retain Ellis, try out the roller coaster that is Justin Peters in that position or make a push for one of the names on the list. I don't think they will have to pay much since the best player available is Jason LaBarbera, but there are going to be other teams looking for the same thing so that might drive his price up. They could always take a chance on a player like Greiss or Montoya for a low cost, too but they might as well just roll with Peters instead of signing an uncertain option. If Brian Elliott (and Brian Boucher) have taught us anything, it's that there is no such thing as a "sure" goaltender and their performance is incredibly random.

That being said, Ellis might be the safest option for Carolina next season and he should come at a cheap cost.  The only issue with re-signing him is finding out what to do with Peters since he is on a one-way deal. For whatever reason, he just hasn't worked out well in Carolina and I'm not sure if I trust him in a back-up role next year. Like I said earlier, Ward is going to need someone who can spell him for 20 games or so. Ellis has a history of being able to do that while Peters does not and has a scattered NHL record. Filling the back-up goaltender spot is thought to be easy in the NHL, but the Hurricanes have a couple of tough decisions to make this summer concerning this spot.

Rookie seasons like the one Jeff Skinner had come around once every so often. As an 18 year old, he had a 31-goal season, recorded 61 points and produced at an astounding rate of 2.49 points per 60 minutes during 5-on-5 play. A rookie putting up those kind of numbers is rare and it's unheard of for an 18-year old to have that kind of year. Having a rookie season like this will do wonders for your expectations and Skinner's were off the charts after this season. He was known as an elite goal-scorer when he was drafted and after potting 31 in his rookie season, it led you to believe that he could do the same in the NHL and possibly do more in future seasons. Things haven't quite gone this way, though.

After his terrific rookie season, Skinner scored 20 goals and had 44 points in 64 games his sophomore season and right now, he has only 13 goals and 23 points over 40 games. This scoring pace would give him only 26 goals and 47 points in a full 82-game season, which is probably lower than what many people had expected from him after his great rookie season. His scoring rate has also plummeted to 1.29 points per 60 minutes this year after scoring over two points per 60 minutes in his first two seasons. This along with his -20 rating has a lot of fans wondering what has gone wrong with Skinner's development and what he is doing differently from his rookie season. 

Seeing Skinner's point totals fall off is frustrating because he has actually made a lot of improvements in his game from his rookie season, despite what some want you to believe.

The wave of injuries that the Hurricanes have experienced has been pointed to as a reason why their season has gone down the drain over the last few weeks. Injuries are always tough to deal with and it's usually the teams with strong organizational depth who can persevere through them. This is where building a strong farm system comes in handy. Whenever a spell of injuries occurs, it presents an opportunity for the guys in the AHL to step in and make an impression at the next level. There are always a lot of players who perform well at the minor leagues but never get a chance to do much in the NHL due to there not being a enough roster space or not getting sufficient ice time whenever they are called up.

The Hurricanes have been in this situation for a few years now since they've had a ton of fringe-NHL players who we didn't know a lot about other than their potential and what they had done in the AHL. It all changed this season, as the injuries have allowed the Canes to get a look at just about every eligible player in the AHL. They have used 17 different players from the AHL and only two of them have spent the entire year of the team. Each one of them seems to have left an impression on the fans, but the only call-up who has managed to stay on the team for a prolonged period is Riley Nash. The rest have kind of drifted back-and-forth without making much of a buzz.

I talked about some of these players a couple weeks ago and how some of them may have deserved more of a shot, but I think it's fair to say that the Canes haven't gotten a lot from the guys called up from Charlotte. They aren't the only team that's had to deal with injuries and have had to rely on AHL call-ups, but how much have they relied on them compared to the rest of the league and how does their production match up?
 

The Southeast Division has really gone through some twists and turns in its final year of existence. At the beginning, it looked like the Tampa Bay Lightning had control of things, then the Carolina Hurricanes soon took over their spot. After these two teams drifted out of the picture, the Winnipeg Jets then swooped in and appeared to take hold of the division after getting hot for two weeks. Now that they have cooled down, the Washington Capitals have stepped up and are now sitting at the top of the division with a four point lead after winning nine out of their last ten games, earning points in all of them.

We all know what happened to the Hurricanes and how their season quickly fell apart, but what's the story for the rest of the division? Some crazy things were bound to happen this year with there being a condensed schedule, but I can't remember the last time the division was this shifting. That's probably because I'm so used to the Caps sitting at the top while the rest of the division fights to even stay alive for the playoffs, sans last season, but it seems like the Southeast this year will be decided by whichever team gets hot at the right time and that team currently appears to be Washington. The Jets are also still in the mix and they have a bit of an "easier" schedule down the stretch, so it's very likely that this race could come down to the last day. Still, the Caps look like they are in the driver's seat right now since they are the "hot" team and have four points on Winnipeg with the same number of games remaining. 

A reason why the Caps have been able to claw their way up the ladder is that they have gotten the best of their divisional counterparts. It's also a reason why the Canes have fallen so hard over the last month.

One of the many things that I like about Kirk Muller is that he has been willing to give many young players a chance to succeed. Since his arrival, Muller has been the "Anti-Paul Murice" of sort where he has given most of the Hurricanes younger players top-nine minutes during their call-ups instead of just plugging them into checking line roles. He sort of did this out of necessity when he took over last season since the Hurricanes were starved for top-six forwards and one of the younger players was going to have to step in sooner or later. Guys like Drayson Bowman, Jerome Samson, Zach Boychuk and Zac Dalpe all got a shot under Muller and while Bowman was the only one who stuck, all of them were given an opportunity to succeed after Muller took over.

The Hurricane's don't have any A-level forward prospects in their system right now, so asking one of these players to fill a top-line role would be unreasonable. This season was a different story. The Hurricanes had only spot open in their top-six, which was on the second line and every spot in the bottom-six was basically up for grabs. Brandon Sutter's absence obviously left a big hole to fill as the third line center, but with Jordan Staal taking over his role as the tough-minutes center, all the Canes needed to do was build a third line that could drive possession in soft minutes. Considering that they spent most of last season over-slotting third-liners in the top-six, one would think that assembling a competent third line shouldn't have been an issue for the Canes. Between Drayson Bowman, Patrick Dwyer, Chad LaRose, Riley Nash, Chris Terry, Brett Sutter, Tim Brent, Zac Dalpe, Jeremy Welsh, Andreas Nodl, Tim Wallace, Zach Boychuk and many others, the Canes had enough players that should have been able to succeed in a soft-minutes role.

The third line has gone through a ton of changes this year and hasn't been able to provide any secondary scoring, so this strategy didn't work out, but the plan wasn't terrible going in. Look around the league and you'll see other teams employ similar strategies. Both the St. Louis Blues and Ottawa Senators have gotten decent production out of their bottom-six while composing them of mostly younger players or grinders who didn't fit into scoring roles. The Hurricanes strategy wasn't terribly different from their's but the execution wasn't as good. Some of it relates to players under-performing, but some of it also relates to Muller and Rutherford not utilizing all of the forward options that they had at their disposal.

A few days ago, I wrote on the subject of PDO and how it has gone downhill for the Hurricanes over these last few weeks. It basically showed that the Hurricanes have been going through a stretch of awful luck lately and that the team is better than what they have showed during this losing streak. In a full season, PDO regresses toward the mean of 1.000 for most teams, but this is obviously not a normal season and there was bound to be some fluky things happening. Take the Toronto Maple Leafs for instance, they are currently shooting at over 10% at even strength and while that will probably crash back down to Earth in a full year, it's enough to propel them into the playoffs now. Same with the Ottawa Senators, who have a team save percentage of over .930 and are in good position to make the playoffs despite losing their two best players. If not for their unreal goaltending, they probably wouldn't be in this situation. Luck is going to play a huge factor this year, which is why I'm hestiant to overreact to whatever the results are.

That being said, the Hurricanes recent skid is something that would get them into trouble even during a full-season. Every team has 8-9 game stretches where they can't buy a goal or go through a bad losing streak, but when you win only one game out of 13, that's going to put you in a hole no matter what. The Hurricanes underlying numbers from this season might show that they are a good team, but it's hard to call what we are seeing right now a "good team that's just unlucky." There has to be more to it than this.

After going most of the season without a collective scapegoat, Hurricanes fans seemed to have found one in defenseman Jamie McBain. The entire team is struggling right now, but he has been taking a lot of heat from the fans ever since Carolina went on their brutal losing streak. The hate reached a new high after his brutal showing against the Winnipeg Jets two weeks ago where he was on-ice for two goals against, one of which he put in his own net. Most of the criticism he has been taking lately has been deserved since his mistakes are costing the team a lot more right now and he has the tendency to get caught in no-man's land more than others. He has also been on-ice for seven even strength goals in his last nine games after being on-ice for only seven in his first 20.

Like I said earlier, the entire team is struggling right now but McBain seems to be a step behind the entire team right now for whatever reason. Some say that he has never been good, but it wasn't too long ago when people were talking about how he had the highest plus-minus rating among the defense corps and how he has become better defensively than in year's past. His underlying numbers also show that he hasn't been terribly better or worse than he was last season, so why is it now that everyone wants him run out of town? Personally, I think it all relates back to Justin Faulk's injury and how McBain's role has changed since then.

It was only a month ago when the Hurricanes were in the driver's seat in the Southeast Division and basically all they needed to do was gain points in a little under 60% of their games to make it in. Since that point, the Canes have gone 3-11-1 and are now in the running for a top-five pick rather than a playoff spot. This free fall was something that even I didn't see coming because, as I have often reiterated here, the Hurricanes have been one of the better teams in the NHL at controlling puck-possession this season. This is usually what leads to success in the NHL, but not all the time. Goaltending, shooting luck and injuries are going to keep some good teams out of the playoffs this year because there are fewer games to make up for lost ground. The Hurricanes have been hit especially hard by the injury bug this year, but they've also seen a lot of other things go wrong for them as of late. This is evidenced by taking a look at their PDO over the season. 

For those who don't know what PDO is, it's the sum of a team's even strength shooting and save percentages and shows how lucky or unlucky a team has gotten. A PDO over 1.000 shows that a team has gotten very fortunate while a team with a PDO under 1.00 shows that they may have gotten a few bounces that have gone against them. Carolina's PDO has stayed stagnant for most of the year, but recently it has taken a nose dive. Looking at it over five-game segments shows this team's fall from grace pretty well.