Even through the Hurricanes recent struggles, one thing the team has been doing well is controlling territorial play. They are a top-10 team in the NHL in controlling 5v5 shot attempts and are around the same area in close game situations. This suggests that the Hurricanes recent struggles are nothing they can't pull out of and they should be able to get back on track if they continue to control territorial play. However, something that I have been noticing is that while they are controlling the shots & territorial play, they are not getting the better end of scoring chances at even strength. Carolina has been outchanced in all of their last four games despite having more shot attempts than the opposing team, which makes me a little more skeptical about how they'll perform down the stretch.

One reason why the team's scoring chance percentage is lower than their possession rate could be due to how often they miss the net. I mentioned how this was a problem in the New Jersey game and it really goes beyond that. How many times this season have we seen the Hurricanes set up a good looking play in the offensive zone only to have a shot go just wide of the net or not get a shot away at all? Most Canes fans will answer "too many times." Some scoring chance counters do count missed shots as chances but I do not, so missed shots could be a reason why they are struggling in this department.

The question is how often to the Hurricanes miss the net compared to the rest of the league and who are the greatest offenders on the team? Thanks to Hockey Analysis, we can find out the answer to this.

If losing four games in a row wasn't bad enough, Hurricanes fans also received news that the team's best defenseman, Justin Faulk, will miss the next 2-4 weeks with an MCL sprain. The Hurricanes have been destroyed by injuries for most of the season, but I have a feeling that Faulk's absence might have the most impact on the team. I know this sounds like an overreaction because Faulk is only 21 and is barely keeping his head above water territorially, but the role Faulk plays is one that's very, very hard to replace and I really don't know if anyone else on the roster can take over for him. 

This isn't quite as serious as the team losing three defensemen like they did for a portion of February, but it's still pretty serious when you look at how much ground Faulk covers compared to the rest of the defense corps. Even with this injury, the Canes still has a legit shot at the Southeast Division title and the playoffs, they will just need the rest of their defense corps to step up in a big way. Find out why after the jump.

The roller coaster ride that is the Carolina Hurricanes 2013 season has gone down yet another slope as the team has lost their last four game and are really starting to feel the heat of the Winnipeg Jets and the rest of the Eastern Conference. After their most recent showing against the Florida Panthers where they lost 4-1 and gave up 44 shots on goal, I asked the question of whether the Hurricanes were a bad team or a good team that is going through a rough patch. When you've played only 25-30 games, it opens the door for some crazy things to happen, but I think we've had enough games to say that the Hurricanes have been a decent team at even strength this year.

Even through the losing streak, the Hurricanes have been owning at least 50% of the shots and scoring chances. They aren't exactly dominating teams, though so their goal-rate has declined a little and will probably continue to throughout the rest of the season. They've been shooting at only 3.6% at even strength the last four games but have been getting stellar goaltending from Peters & Ellis, so their goal percentage has remained fine. I'd expect some regression to occur in both ways since they aren't going to stay that unlucky with shooting the puck and it's unlikely that Ellis/Peters can maintain a .930+ save percentage. 

This begs the question, though. How good are the Hurricanes? Is this a playoff team or a squad that is just going to finish outside of the playoffs? Compared to teams who are also in the race, the Canes appear to be good enough to make it in but that's not taking their terrible special teams into account.

Carolina's powerplay and penalty kill's success rates are in the bottom of the league and their PK is one of the worst in the NHL at suppressing shots. Their PK was playing well before the last four games, where their luck eventually ran out and now find themselves in the bottom-five again. Their powerplay is a bit of a different story because while it looks bad by the eye-test, Behind the Net suggests that they are getting unlucky while playing 5-on-4. They are a top-ten team at generating shots there, but just not finding the back of the net for whatever reason. Similar to what the Montreal Canadiens went through last year before they fired Jacques Martin.

Even as a numbers guy, I have to raise my eyebrows at the data here because the powerplay really has not looked good all season. While they are generating shots, they aren't getting many good chances and can barely contain the zone for more than 30 seconds. The data suggests that the Canes should remain patient here and wait for the goals to come but with only 19 games remaining left in the season, there isn't much time for them to just wait it out.

Then you have to factor in Justin Faulk's injury, which will sideline him for the next 2-4 weeks. Faulk may not be Carolina's best defenseman at controlling territorial play, but he logs a ton of minutes against other team's first lines. The fact that he is able to break even & drive the play in those situations is huge and I'm not sure if the team has another blue-liner who can replace him. Tim Gleason, Joni Pitkanen, Jamie McBain, Joe Corvo and Jay Harrison are capable of playing big minutes but none of them have been as good as Faulk when thrown into a shutdown role.

My mind says that it isn't time to panic because the Hurricanes have been a good team for most of this year, but the skeptic in me is very worried about how the next few weeks will go. They have some big games coming up against Winnipeg and the Faulk injury along with the poor special teams has me less optimistic than usual. People often underrated how big losing a defenseman can be, so these next 5-8 games could be very tough if the rest of the defense corps can't pick up the slack. It isn't time to panic just yet but we could be getting close pending how the next several games go.

The Hurricanes weren't even close to being in a "must-win" situation last week, but they did have a chance to take control of the Southeast Division by defeating Washington twice and Tampa Bay on the road. They ended up winning only one of those three games and have now let the surging Winnipeg Jets take over first place in the division. Some might say that this is a sign that the Hurricanes need to basically "win-out" the rest of the season in order to make the playoffs, but would you believe it if I said the Winnipeg Jets need to win more of their remaining games than the Hurricanes to get to 55 points? Because this is true.

Standings watching is hard to do at this time of the year and it can make people think a situation is far more serious than it appears. Yes, Winnipeg has one more point in the standings than the Hurricanes. They've also played two more games and still have to play Carolina three more times before the end of the season. If Carolina is still in the same position at that time of the year, then this is when we can talk "must-win" and start to panic. Now? Not so much. Carolina fans just need to hope that the last week was only a bump in the road for the team and that they can go better than .500 for the rest of the season.

The Hurricanes added some depth to their bottom-six today by acquiring forward Adam Hall off waivers. Hall has been in the league for 10 seasons and has spent the last four years with the Tampa Bay Lightning. He has a few 10+ goals seasons under his belt, but his best assets are his defensive play and faceoff prowess. He will play his first game for the Hurricanes tonight against the team who just put him on waivers only 24 hours ago, which will make for an interesting storyline.

Hall is a very useful player but asking where he fits in the Hurricanes lineup is a good question. The Jordan Staal line handling most of the tough matchups means that the Hurricanes don't have much use for "shutdown forwards" unless they want to tilt the ice in their top-six's favor. This is why Andreas Nodl struggled to find a place in the lineup and was eventually sent down to Charlotte before he got hurt. Hall is somewhat of a comparable player to him, but does that mean he will suffer the same fate? Not quite. Hall has a few qualities that make him more valuable than your general replacement level player.

After the jump, we'll talk about what Hall can bring to the team and where he might fit in the Canes lineup.

The Hurricanes have a couple of decisions to make regarding their current defense corps and no, I am not talking about them making a trade. This issue is a little more immediate, as Joni Pitkanen will be returning to the lineup soon and the Hurricanes are going to have to figure out who will sit to make room for him in the lineup. The team started the year with seven defensemen on the roster with Joe Corvo, Jamie McBain and Bobby Sanguinetti rotating as the healthy scratches. Some might say that it will be an easy decision to sit one of those three when Pitkanen returns but it won't be that simple. Injuries have allowed these three to get into the lineup almost every night and they have been playing well, so deciding which one will sit out in favor of Pitkanen might be a tough call.

Corvo has stepped up to top-four minutes the last few weeks so there is no way he will be sitting out while Bobby Sanguinetti has been steaidly improving with every game so it might be hard to sit him right now. Then there's Jamie McBain, who is a long-time defense partner of Pitkanen and also coming off a couple of very good games. Pitkanen will be an upgrade over anyone he replaces with how great his performance has been this year, but finding the right spot for him in the lineup could be a challenge.

This is where taking an analytical approach would help. Out of all the defensemen on the roster, who is the most replaceable and should sit after Pitkanen's comes back? We will answer those questions after the jump.

The Hurricanes penalty kill reached a new low on February 11, 2013 when the New York Islanders powerplay lit them up for four goals in a game but since then, things have been looking up. The Canes PK has allowed only six goals in the 14 games since then and have climbed their way out of the bottom-10 in the NHL. How effective they have been on the PK in the last 13 games has actually become quite a story, as they've allowed only four goals on 44 powerplay opportunities. It's very important that the Hurricanes continue to be successful on the penalty kll because poor special teams play cost them a few games early on in the season, especially with their powerplay slumping right now.

The turnaround of the Hurricanes penalty kill has been very impressive, there's no doubt about that but what are the odds that the team's recent success on the PK is only smoke & mirrors? They are still at the bottom of the NHL in terms of shots allowed while playing 4-on-5 and have relied on their goaltenders to bail them out of more than a few bad situations. Is it possible that the Canes PK is no different than that of the Toronto Maple Leafs which has also seen a streak of good luck in recent games? The overall underlying numbers suggest so, but let's take a look and see what exactly has changed with the Hurricanes PK in the last 13 games.

PK GA = Penalty kill goals allowed, Pen/Game = Number of penalty kills per game, PK SA = Shots against on penalty ill, PK SV% = Penalty kill save percentage, SA/PK = Shots against per penalty kill

The Hurricanes penalty kill has gotten rather lucky in these last 13 games with the team having a shorthanded save percentage of .925. They are allowing slightly fewer shots but not enough to go from allowing over .20 goals per kill to less than .10 in the span of only 13 games. A decline that sharp is usually the sign of either good or bad luck and that's probably the case with the Hurricanes this season. Their penalty kill likely wasn't as bad as it was for the first 12 games, but it also isn't nearly as good as what we've seen the last 12 games.
 

That being said, the Hurricanes are doing some good things on the penalty kill. After all, they are yielding fewer shots than they were earlier in the season and I think some of that has to do with Eric Staal and Alexander Semin becoming regular additions on the PK. Neither are known for their defensive game (although Semin is vastly underrated), but the Hurricanes are allowing fewer shorthanded shots on goal when these two are on the ice. A lot of it has to do with these two playing an aggressive style on the PK, leading to a few shorthanded breakaways and scoring chances for the Hurricanes. Both Staal and Semin are usually the best players on the ice for the Hurricanes, which makes them a threat no matter what the playing situation is and why they have been good additions to the penalty kill.

Above all, the most important thing to consider with the Hurricanes improvements on the PK is that they have been taking less penalties in general. They've been shorthanded fewer times and alleviating some pressure off their penalty killers to bail the team out of a tough spot. Out of all the things that have gone right for the Hurricanes lately, the fact that they are taking fewer penalties might be the most critical. One less penalty per game may not seem like much, but it can make a difference in the big picture with how much a powerplay goal can change the complexion of a game.

So while the Hurricanes penalty kill has gotten pretty fortunate over the last month or so, they are doing some good things to help improve their shorthanded play and it all starts with the team taking fewer penalties.

I think most would agree that the Hurricanes have not been a great defensive team this year. They rank towards the bottom of the league in shots against, penalty killing and seem to get involved in run-and-gun style games almost every other night. This makes for some very exciting hockey but it can drive fans insane at times because blown coverages and defensive mistakes are going to happen when you play a very open style. Yet, the Hurricanes have managed to win games despite this and have been controlling the play at even strength when the game is close.

There is always the concern of whether or not this type of hockey can succeed in the playoffs, as many of the recent Stanley Cup champions such as the Los Angeles Kings and Chicago Blackhawks featured terrific defenses. I'm sure that many would love for the Hurricanes defense to play like that but it isn't feasible right now. They don't have top-end talents like Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook or Drew Doughty to anchor their defense corps, at least not yet, so the most they can do is make the best of what they currently have.

That doesn't mean the Hurricanes are doomed in the long run, though because there have been some less-than-stellar defensive teams who have gone the distance even with less than stellar defenses. The Boston Bruins and Pittsburgh Penguins being good recent examples of that. Adding to that, the Hurricanes are a team that's been producing a lot of shots every night, as well so they are capable of driving the play and being a net positive team in terms of puck possession. A reason for this is because they have quite a few top-end forwards up front and no shortage of capable puck-moving defensemen on their blue-line. 

The old phrase in sports is that "defense wins championships" but having a good offense is just as important in today's NHL. Having a good defense and goaltending is obviously critical to winning, but the impact of a good offense is something that's often understated. You don't need to be a major in statistics to understand that teams who have the puck more often than their opponents are likely to score more while yielding fewer shots and thus, winning more games. This isn't the case all the time since even good possession teams can flounder if they have terrible goaltending, but clubs towards the top of the standings are normally ones who are stronger at controlling the shot battle at even strength.

This is where having forwards who can drive the play forward come in handy. Players like Eric Staal, Alexander Semin, Jordan Staal and Jeff Skinner. The Staal brothers might be the only ones of this group who receive credit for their two-way play, but Skinner and Semin have just as big of an impact in regards to the Hurricanes territorial play. The Hurricanes produce more scoring chances per 60 minutes when Skinner is on the ice than anyone else and our earlier look at zone entries showed that he gets the puck into the offensive zone more often than any other player. He is also doing this while playing on a line with Jordan Staal, which not only means that the Canes have possession of the puck when they are on the ice, it means that the opposing team's top lines are stuck in their own end, too.

That limits the impact of the other team's top forwards and puts them at a disadvantage. Skinner is prone to slip ups in coverage when his own zone, but he doesn't need to defend for over 50% of the time he is on the ice, which mitigates his flaws and means he is doing more good than harm. The first line has a similar effect, but they've also received a zone start push from the coaching staff and aren't relied on to drive the play as much as Jordan Staal & Jeff Skinner. This is why not having Skinner for five games hurt the team a lot.

Another player whose absence is felt for similar reasons is Joni Pitkanen. Offensive defensemen are often somewhat underrated for this reason. They might never take a shift on the PK and are prone to some terrible mistakes, but if they are effective at driving the play forward it means that their defensive shortcomings do not matter as much and they are doing a lot of help for their team as a whole. We've seen Erik Karlsson have this effect on the Senators for the last couple of years and players like Lubomir Visnovsky have also made a similar impact on their teams. Pitkanen isn't in the same class as Karlsson, but his strengths as an offensive player have had a great impact on the Hurricanes over the years and that has been especially true this season.

Having a defenseman capable of driving the play adds another demension to a team's offensive attack and it's especially helpful if said defenseman is a good puck-handler because that gives the opposing defense much more to worry about. If you look at the zone entry article linked earlier, you'll see that Pitkanen is, by far, Carolina's best defenseman in regards to neutral zone play and that's one of the reasons the Hurricanes are a better team when he is healthy.

Another area where defensemen like Pitkanen help out is exciting the zone. I've lost count of the number of times that a team has failed to generate much offense because their defensemen can't move the puck forward at all, which is why having players capable of doing this is important.

These are the Hurricanes 5v5 zone exit numbers which I have been tracking all season. What I've done is counted every time a Carolina player touched the puck in an attempt to exit the zone, noted if they were able to successfully advance the puck (whether it was via carry, pass or by other means), turned it over or iced it. I haven't been able to link this to a team's ability to drive the play forward, but I think most hockey fans will tell you that the ability to get the puck out of the zone is very important, especially with defensemen, so this is worth looking at.

You can see that Pitkanen is the best defensemen on the Hurricanes at advancing the puck during 5v5 play but another player who has also been very good at doing this is Joe Corvo and he is probably one of the most under-appreciated players on the team. I'm pretty sure that there was an audible groan from the Hurricanes fanbase when Jim Rutherford decided to bring Corvo back to Carolina for a third tour of duty and while he is far from an ideal replacement for Bryan Allen, one thing that he is able to do is get the puck moving in the right direction. It's something that he has been great at doing over most of his career and it's really helped this season since Bobby Sanguinetti's play has come along slower than most were hoping.

In the 150+ games I have tracked, the average zone exit advance rate for defensemen is about 22%, so both Corvo and Pitkanen are performing at an above average level when it comes to getting the puck out. Corvo is doing this while playing fewer minutes and easier opponents than Pitkanen, but he is still playing his role fine and he has actually been a lot better than expected. 

There are going to be many claims that the Hurricanes need to "tighten up" defensively in order to go anywhere in the playoffs and while that's a valid complaint, Carolina isn't going to become a great defensive team with the roster they have now. Adding a defenseman at the trade deadline isn't going to completely fix everything either and you can even make the argument that adding a shutdown defenseman here would be trying to fit a square peg into a round hole. Fortunately, Kirk Muller has been able to adapt to this team's strengths and has put together a squad that's pretty good at controlling puck possession, which is what usually leads to more wins. The only problem is that this strategy isn't as effective when Pitkanen is out of the lineup and his return can not come soon enough.

Last week, the Hurricanes were well ahead of the pack in the Southeast after picking up two wins over the Florida Panthers in a home-and-home series. How do they look now after winning two out of three games against non-divisional opponents? Answer: not much better or worse than they were a week ago, but they are making progress at the very least.

GR = Games Remaining, Pts = Points, Avail. = Points available, Needed = Points needed to 55, Point% = Percentage of games they need to earn points to get to 55, Div. = Divisional games remaining 

Even with the Hurricanes struggles within the division, the Hurricanes are still in the best shape to win the Southeast after going 2-1-0 the past week and improving their lead in the standings. The only team that has been gaining some ground on them is the Winnipeg Jets, who went 2-1-1 in their past week and picked up wins over two divisional teams. They are only three points behind the Hurricanes in the standings but they also have played one more game than Carolina, which puts them at a slight disadvantage.

It's easy to look at the standings and say "Oh no, Winnipeg is only three points behind! Carolina really needs to win tonight!" but the one game in hand puts a little less pressure on the Hurricanes. However, the Canes do have a pretty big week coming up where they play Washington twice and then Tampa Bay on the road. This won't make or break the season for Carolina thanks to the position they're in now, but they can easily let Washington or Tampa Bay climb back into the race if they fail to get any points this week. In other words, they aren't "must win" games but things will be much easier for the Hurricanes down the road if they do win.

Tampa Bay was actually still in the race for awhile but their recent slide has put them in a bad position while the Caps had a chance to make things interesting before dropping both games to the Rangers and Islanders. 

In addition to being in a good position, the Hurricanes also have the most optimistic outlook for the rest of the season compared to the divisional adversaries.

In addition to being one of two teams with a positive goal differential, Carolina has also done a better job at controlling the play at even strength and has gotten better goaltending than the rest of the pack. I'm not sure if this will continue with the Justin Peters/Dan Ellis tandem, but I think the Hurricanes will be fine if they can be average for the rest of the season. The fact that the Hurricanes are controlling 52% of the shots with the score close puts less pressure on their goaltenders anyway. The only thing that the Hurricanes need to be very concerned about is their penalty kill, which has been just atrocious at preventing shots. The other teams in the division aren't exactly good on the PK either but Carolina's is still much worse. They've had a good streak of not allowing goals lately, but that will come to an end if they continue to struggle preventing shots.

One other thing I will say is do not sleep on the Winnipeg Jets. I've heard nothing but bad press out of there lately but the team doesn't look too bad all things considered. They need to go something like 12-7-5 to make the playoffs, but they've been pretty good at even strength this season and aren't that far behind Carolina in the standings. Their bad powerplay and terrible PK save percentage might hurt them, but they can still challenge Carolina for the top seed if the Canes struggle the rest of the way.

I have a feeling that this chart will look very different for the Hurricanes by the end of next week. If they can get points or win their next three games then they will be in an even better spot than they are now, but if they drop all three games then things will be much tighter. Going .500 for the rest of the season is all Carolina needs to do to make the playoffs, which sounds easy enough but we've seen many teams fall apart down the stretch in previous seasons. Let's hope Carolina can avoid that.

Stats courtesy of Behind the Net.

As of right now, the Hurricanes are in a good position to both make the playoffs and win the Southeast Division. They basically need to play a little better than .500 hockey for the rest of the season to qualify for the playoffs and it may not even be that much if the rest of the Eastern Conference continues to struggle, according to Sports Club Stats. In other words, all the Canes have to do for the rest of the year is not play terribly and they should find themselves in the post-season. Sound easy enough, right?

The Hurricanes have assembled a pretty decent squad this year, too. They are winning the battle at even strength, have one of the best first lines in the NHL and they've managed to get to 14-9-1 despite playing with a depleted roster for most of the season. The squad isn't perfect, though as they have had plenty of woes on special teams this season but the most frustrating things with the Hurricanes, by far, has been their play within the division.

While the Hurricanes haven't played that many intra-Southeast games this season, they have won only two of seven meetings against divisional opponents nad have been outscored 25-16 in those games. What has put them at the top of the division is a strong 12-4-1 record against the rest of the Eastern Conference, including an impressive 4-1-1 record against the Atlantic Division. That being said, the Hurricanes are going to need to start winning some more games within their own division if they are going to make the playoffs, because most of their remaining games are against these teams.

The fact that Carolina has had such little success in the Southeast is a bit perplexing. The Southeast is the weakest division in the league and the fact that Carolina has gone 2-5-0 against these teams is confusing when you look at their performance against teams who are better. This goes beyond just wins and losses, too as the Hurricanes have recorded plenty of blowouts wins over Atlantic & Northeast teams.

Carolina has outscored the Atlantic & Northeast teams by almost 20 at even strength, while they are averaging barely two goals per game against the Southeast. Their numbers against the Southeast would actually look a lot worse had it not been for that six-goal performance against Florida last Saturday night. Even when you add in the special teams goals, they are still outscoring the rest of the Eastern Conference by 15 goals. So, what's the root of the problem here? Does Carolina have a problem getting ready for games within the division? I would buy that excuse if the teams they were playing outside of the Southeast weren't significantly better than what they are facing within their own division.

Taking a closer look at their numbers against the Southeast shows that poor luck has played somewhat of role in their divisional struggles.

ESSF = Even strength shots for, ESSA = Even strength shots against, CorF = Corsi For, CorA = Corsi Against, ESCF = Even strength scoring chances for, ESCA = Even strength scoring chances against, ES Sh% = even strength shooting percentage, ESSV% = Even strength save percentage

For the most part, Carolina has been able to control play and outchance their divisional opponents at even strength. I'm not sure how much predictive value this has because they were also playing from behind in most of these games, but I wouldn't bank on their goaltending being that bad for their remaining 11 games against the Southeast. Their shooting percentage against the Southeast is also below average but they haven't gotten absurdly unlucky either.

On the other hand, Carolina hasn't been blowing away the rest of their competition at even strength and yet, they've managed to outscore them by 15 thanks to the team having a shooting percentage of nearly 13%. That obviously isn't going to stay that high for the entire year and it's also doubtful that the Ellis/Peters tandem will stop nearly 93% of the shots they see for the rest of the year. In other words, it's been a tale of extremes for the Hurricanes with them getting all the bounces against teams who aren't from the Southeast.

I would expect those to even out as the year goes on and the Canes will have a chance to pad their lead this week with two games against Washington and a road game against Tampa Bay coming up. At the same time, Carolina will probably struggle against the rest of the Eastern Conference since they aren't controlling the play enough for them to remain dominant. They also have games remaining against Boston, Pittsburgh & Montreal, who are among the best teams in the East and will pose a tough test for the Canes.

In the end, I think things will eventually even out and the Hurricanes will make the playoffs since they're in a good enough position now. The only way I could see things going wrong is for them to suffer injuries to more key players and their underlying numbers to take a nose-dive as a result. We've known to expect the unexpected in this shortened season, so let's hope that things continue to go well for the Hurricanes in this second half.