Most of the Hurricanes injured players have returned but one player who has been on the shelf longer than intended is center Tim Brent. He was part of the notorious first-wave of injuries that occurred a few weeks ago, as he has been struggling with a nagging groin problem for quite awhile now. He is set to make his return to the lineup tonight and Brent might give the Hurricanes a bigger jolt than some think. I know this sounds kind of ridiculous at first glance because Brent is a fourth liner who usually doesn't play more than 10 minutes per game, has only two points, isn't a top-faceoff guy and isn't that good of a penalty killer either. How can someone who appears to be pretty replaceable help Carolina's lineup so much?

It's true that Brent is a fourth liner and his role is very replaceable but since he went down, the guys who Carolina has called in to take over the fourth line center spot haven't been very good. In fact, the team's fourth line has been a liability more times than not with Brent out of the lineup. That isn't a huge problem because they are being matched up against other team's depth forwards, but it does hurt the team's overall depth and puts a lot of pressure on the rest of the lineup, especially when the fourth line is given only 4-8 shifts like they were Thursday night. With Riley Nash assuming the role of third line center for now, the fourth line has had to resort to other Charlotte call-ups like Brett Sutter and Jeremy Welsh or make do with players like Tim Wallace centering this line. All three haven't worked out due to them playing poorly or Muller only giving them 2-5 minutes of ice-time.

Brent only plays 6-8 minutes a game at even strength no matter what, so his impact is limited but whenever he is on the ice, the Hurricanes have been able to move the puck in the right direction. Granted, this is with him playing against other team's fourth lines but you can never have too many players capable of driving the play. Brent has been able to do that this year and that's even with him taking a lot of extra shifts in the defensive zone. He has been able to make the Canes fourth line an effective unit this year, as the ability of both Tim Wallace & Kevin Westgarth to carry the mail at even strength improved whenever he is on a line with them. Again, he is doing this against weak competition but as a fourth liner he isn't expected to do much more and there's nothing wrong with that.

Brent's play at even strength has improved dramatically this year, but he is actually missed a lot more on the powerplay. Most Hurricanes fans remember that Brent quarterbacked Carolina's powerplay for a good part of last season and he actually did a damn fine job when it came to producing scoring chances. He didn't start this season on any of the powerplay units, but the Canes struggles there have led to them placing Brent back on the point and he is one of the team's most efficient producers with the man advantage.

The Hurricanes have gone through a lot of lineup changes this season but I don't think any position has been more of a revolving door as the right wing spot on the second line. With Tuomo Ruutu out until at least mid-April, Kirk Muller has tried out just about every weapon in his arsenal to find a suitable linemate for Jordan Staal and Jeff Skinner. The second line has had it's ups and downs this year, as both Staal and Skinner have done a terrific job of driving possession while playing against tough competition, but finding another winger to help them has been a struggle.

Jordan Staal has been able to make the second line a good territorial unit even with sub-par wingers, but he can't turn dust into gold and make it a scoring line with just anyone. We saw this in the five games that Skinner was hurt. When Skinner is healthy, he and Staal have been somewhat dangerous and effective offensively, but they've struggled in the last couple of games when Tim Wallace was placed on the other wing, which could be a sign that these two can't do all the work by themselves and need a more consistent linemate. The first line might be lighting things up now, but I still believe that they will cool down eventually and when that does, the other lines are going to need to pitch in, which is why filling this hole on the second line will be important.

You could argue that Patrick Dwyer provided the Hurricanes with a nice stop-gap for the second line until Ruutu returns but he was eventually demoted to the third line and has since developed some nice chemistry with Jussi Jokinen & Riley Nash on that unit. Jokinen was another player who got an audition on this line as a winger and while he was able to drive the play well, he wasn't scoring and ended up being demoted. Muller probably doesn't want to mess with the chemistry of that line for now, so I guess Dwyer & Jokinen are no longer options. Chad LaRose and Zac Dalpe would also be options for the second line but they are both injured now which leaves spare parts like Tim Wallace and Drayson Bowman who have been on the fourth line more times than not.

I know that coaches don't like to mess with chemistry, but I think having a good second line is more important than keeping a solid third line together. So let's pretend that all of the players I listed above (save for Dalpe since he's out indefinitely) are fair game for the second line. Which players on the roster is the best fit with Skinner and Staal? This means that they have to be at least decent offensively, play competently against opposing team's top lines and be able to drive the play forward. I'm sure that many people reading this already know who their answer is and have their own opinions on certain players on the team. There's nothing wrong with that, but a better way to go about it is to take a closer look at each player's performance on the ice.

So, what I'm going to do is look at how each player has performed in all three zones without mentioning their names and differ to the readers on who they want to see on the second line from the available options. No biases or previous opinions here, just the facts.

Following a hockey team can be a grueling task at times since there are many twists and turns that come with the territory. At the beginning of the season, you always tell yourself that every team is going to experience good and bad stretches (unless you're the Chicago Blackhawks) and it's best to stay rational through it all. Yet, whenever a winning or losing streak of 3-5 games occurs, the vibe among the fanbase is nothing but joy or panic. There is either a lot of praise about confidence and leadership whenever things are going right and when they don't, it's nothing but finger-pointing at certain players and assumptions about what is wrong with said team. We saw plenty of this in Carolina last season with the team's struggles but similar things have resurfaced this season, too. 

The final results look good for the Hurricanes, as they currently sit atop of the Southeast Division with a seven point lead over the Tampa Bay Lightning but the road to get here has been a little uneven to stay the least. The Canes started off the year dropping their first two games, giving a lot of fans a very pessimistic outlook until they swept a back-to-back series against the Buffalo Sabres. Following that, Carolina suffered a tough loss against Boston followed by a win over Ottawa and a road trip where they went 4-1-1. There was a lot of talk about how the team was coming together then and how they were on the verge of possibly doing something special this year.

Then the wave of injuries happened. The Hurricanes save five different players go on IR (three of whom being defensemen) and the team would then drop four of their next five games with the four losses coming in ugly fashion. Injuries are tough to deal with but every team goes through them and the Canes lack of depth was showing, which led to a lot of soothsayers coming out of the woodwork. The team suddenly had character issues and "no drive to win" because of four bad games. They would then go on a four game winning streak after a few players returned off the IR and now all is well again.  What will happen in the next five games remains to be seen, but it will be interesting to see the stories that emerge if the Canes go on another skid or continue their winning ways.

The fact of the matter is that no matter how bad or good a stretch of five games is, it's a very small portion of what is a long season. Yes, it's a shortened season and every game means more with there being no inter-conference play, but everyone has to remember not completely overreact to what happens in a small sample size. If the Canes go on a Chicago-like run or a Columbus-like fall, then we can start freaking out but until either of those happens, let's keep a cool head about things.

It's pretty interesting to see how much fans emotions have swung back in forth in the last week based on the Hurricanes play because the team's underlying numbers have been somewhat constant these past nine or ten games, only with completely different results.

Carolina's ability to control the scoring chances at even strength has only been slightly better during this brief winning streak than it was during their rough patch. The difference was that more pucks were going in for them at even strength and their goaltenders went from playing from below replacement to an elite level. As fun as it has been to watch this team the last four games, it's doubtful that they will continue to get this lucky in terms of both shooting and save percentage. In fact, you can even make the argument that it's a little concerning that they've been on the losing end of the scoring chance battle even with a reasonably healthy lineup but this is only four games and the Canes held a big lead in all of them, so score effects definitely played a role there.

When looking at the big picture, the Hurricanes appear to be in decent shape even if they've been playing a little over their heads in their last four games.

Carolina is still on the right side of things, but the percentages might catch up to them soon and their scoring rate will decline if they continue to be only a 50-51% team at even strength. I'm not sure what will happen to the team once they begin to score less, but I'm sure the narratives that will be drawn out of it will be fun. The thing to remember here is that good and bad stretches happen over the course of the season even when a team is playing well, and the Canes have done that for most of the year. If they can continue to at least stay above 50% during even strength play, then I don't think there will be much to panic about in Raleigh unless a long losing streak happens, and I mean a long one. Not a rough patch lasting 4-5 games because there have been plenty of teams who have weathered through those in the past.

Take a look at the league leaders in even strength point production and you'll see a few familiar faces as Carolina's first line of Eric Staal, Alexander Semin and Jiri Tlusty are in the top-30 in even strength points per 60 minutes. Staal leads the pack with an insane 4.08 even strength points per 60 minutes, a rate that puts him higher than the likes of Sidney Crosby, Thomas Vanek, Ryan Getzlaf and Steven Stamkos. Anyone who follows hockey knows that this line has been fantastic for the Hurricanes this season but I don't think people have any idea of just how good they've been. 

In addition to their ridiculous even strength scoring rates, Staal has been held without a point in only five games this season and has seven multi-point games. His current scoring pace would give him 97 points in a full-82 game season while Semin & Tlusty's scoring rates would give them 78 and 66 points respectively. The three have different skillsets but they compliment each other well. Both Staal and Semin have been terrific at winning battles along the boards and it has helped free up space for Tlusty, which has let to him having 10 goals and 17 points in 21 games. Meanwhile, Semin has shined as a great play-maker and Staal has been doing most of the bull-work down low to score from the dirty areas. They've been quite a lethal combination ever since Kirk Muller put them on the same line and they've contributed to 43% of Carolina's goals this year.

What are the chances of them continuing to produce at this level, though? A quick look at their underlying numbers doesn't paint an optimistic picture for them because all three are barely winning the shot battle at even strength and have on-ice shooting percentage north of 14%, which is normally a sign that they have gotten quite lucky this season and will probably cool down soon. For reference, there have been only two players since 2007-08 to maintain an EV on-ice shooting percentage of over 14%. One of them was Daniel Sedin and the other was Darryl Boyce, so one of the best scorers in the league and a player who is never on-ice for a lot of shots on goal in a year. Other players who have posted high on-ice shooting percentage in recent seasons include Steven Stamkos, Teddy Purcell, Jordan Eberle, Paul Statsny, Ales Hemsky, Ryan Getzlaf, Sidney Crosby, Nicklas Backstrom, Evgenii Malkin and Alex Tanguay. Basically guys who are elite scorers/play-makers or those who got to play on a line with them.

It's possible that the Canes first line can continue to post a high shooting percentage in a 48-game season, but the ability to maintain a shooting percentage above 14% for a long period of time is very rare and given what we know about Staal and Semin, both have been able to elevate the shooting percentage of their linemates but they aren't in Crosby/Sedin/Stamkos territory. In other words, there's a good chance that they end up having great offensive seasons, but Staal probably will not continue to produce four points for every 60 minutes he plays. I know that he has a 100-point season under his belt, but expecting that kind of production from him (and almost any player) is unreasonable.

How much will this line taper off is a good question because while their point-production might drop off, some fans may not even notice it because of how ridiculous they are performing right now. Remember, this is a line that's producing a almost every game and that probably isn't sustainable. Their not-so-great underlying numbers going by shot totals suggest that they could be in for some major regression, but their scoring chance numbers are a little more optimistic, especially Tlusty's.
 

This line is getting outshot on a lot of nights, but they have been doing a great job of winning the scoring chance battle despite that. However, the only thing this protects is their high plus-minus because the amount of chances they are producing per 15 minutes is kind of low for the type of minutes they are getting. Jordan Staal and Jeff Skinner have actually been producing more offense with less ice-time but haven't received the same amount of shooting luck, so these three are still prone to suffer some regression with their goal regression. The only exception being Alexander Semin, who is the only member of this line to not have a shooting percentage above 10%. He might actually be on the verge of scoring more goals with how low his personal shooting percentage is.

Keep in mind that this is all even strength production and Carolina's powerplay hasn't received much luck at all this season. You could say that they aren't creating any of their luck because of how bad it has looked at times this year, but there is some reasons to be optimistic here. Yes, the Canes powerplay is in the bottom-five in terms of success rate, but they are 16th in 5v4 shots per 60 minutes. That isn't great, but it certainly isn't "worst in the NHL" bad either. On the flipside, opposing goalies have stopped .912 of the 5v4 shots they face when Carolina is on the powerplay, which shows that they could be due for some bounces to go their way here. Staal, Semin and Tlusty have combined for five PPGs and their shooting percentages on the powerplay aren't ridiculously high either, so it's possible that they could make up for things on the powerplay if their even strength production takes a fall.

Luck is a tough thing to grasp in hockey becuase people always seem to come up with reasons as to why high percentages won't regress back to the mean. I do think that anything can happen in a shortened year, but it's been proven in recent history that not many teams have been able to shoot at over 14% at even strength when a certain player is on the ice. It doesn't matter how good this player is or how they "constantly shoot from scoring areas" because historical evidence has shown that high shooting percentages eventually come down at some point in time. Staal, Semin and Tlusty are not immune to this, so it's unlikely that they will continue to produce at this level for the rest of the year.

That doesn't mean that they won't continue to play good hockey, though. Like I said earlier, they are producing at a very ridiculous rate now, especially Staal, and while they will probably cool a little, these three can still perform well offensively without the aid of a ridiculous even strength shooting percentage. Just not at a 95-100 point pace.

Hurricanes fans are fearing the worst right now, as it was announced earlier this morning that their goaltender Cam Ward will miss the next 6-8 weeks with an MCL sprain. Things certainly could have been a lot worse judging from how bad the injury looked when it happened, but at the very least, it's good to know that this isn't anything season-ended or career threatening. That's the good news, the bad news is that the Hurricanes are going to be without their starting goaltender for possibly the rest of the season and that's a big piece to lose no matter what team you are. Ward wasn't having a great start to the year, but his last five games have been terrific and he has stolen more games for the Hurricanes over his career than he has lost.

What many are wondering now is whether or not losing Ward for the next two months will ruin Carolina's season. To put it bluntly, no. Ward is a very good goaltender, but he is not elite and this has been restated countless times. His performance since 2007 has ranged from above average to great and his even strength save percentage was at only .917 this season, which is slightly below average. The one thing that Ward provided was stability in net since he has been the goaltender in Raleigh for so long. He isn't Pekka Rinne or Henrik Lundqvist, so the Hurricanes just need to get average to above average goaltending out of Dan Ellis and Justin Peters the rest of the way and they should be in good shape. 

The question then becomes whether or not Ellis/Peters can provide the Hurricanes with that.

The Hurricanes did themselves a huge favor this weekend by picking up two wins against the Florida Panthers because it now gives them a bit of a cushion on their lead in the Southeast Division. Things are still pretty tight, though as the Winnipeg Jets trail them by only four points and Canes have recently come out of a stretch where they lost three divisional games. Carolina's record is padded thanks to a 10-3-1 record against the rest of the Eastern Conference but constantly giving games away to divisional opponents is going to allow other teams to stay in the race, which is why their lead is far from safe. Add in the fact that the Canes have 11 divisional games left and things could easily turn out bad for Carolina if they continue to struggle in the division, which is why getting two wins over Florida was huge.
 

Last time we checked the standings based on how many points each team has earned and how many games they had remaining, the Hurricanes and Lightning were in the best positions to win the Southeast with both needing to gain points in about 56-57% of their games to reach 55 points. Since then, the Hurricanes have earned eight points in seven games while the Lightning won only one of six and earned only two points. Meanwhile, the Winnipeg Jets have climbed their way back into the mix by earning eight points in six games, taking over second place in the division from Tampa Bay. They are obviously in a better position now but it's only slightly improved compared to where it was a couple weeks ago..

After Game 10, I did a brief overview of the Hurricanes season up until that point and determined that the Hurricanes should be in good shape for the rest of the year. There were plenty of reasons to be confident, the team was crushing their competition at even strength, had two good scoring lines and were just finishing up a road trip where they went 4-1-1 against Atlantic & Northeast Division teams. Since then, the Hurricanes have suffered a barrage of injuries, losing five players in the span of less than a week and the team seems to have fallen apart. The Canes have won only two of their last six games since the road trip and have looked pretty lifeless in almost all of their last five games.Three of those losses coming against Southeast Division opponents, who they are battling for points with right now.

It's pretty easy for some to point to injuries as the reason for the Hurricanes recent struggles and it's a justifiable excuse. Injuries are tough to overcome and it's even tougher when three of those players are defensemen who regularly log big minutes. Not having Jeff Skinner is obviously a big loss too and they also lost a depth forward in Tim Brent, who is a fourth liner but plays often on both special team units. It also doesn't help that the lineup has changed basically every night, as the Canes have used 22 different skaters in the last week alone and at least nine or ten of these players started this season outside of the NHL. In addition to that, a good few of the players from the AHL are playing some pretty big minutes, too and there is only so much one can expect from this roster the way it is constructed right now.

At the same time, injuries are part of the game and every team has to deal with them. The Ottawa Senators lost their two best players and seem to have no problem with at least staying competitive in most of their games. Carolina probably isn't going to win many games with their defense corps consisting of only one proven top-four player right now, but this team has struggled to be even competitive lately. I try to stay away from questioning effort and compete level since I really don't know what goes on inside the player's heads but for the last three games, this team had a tendency to come out flat while the game is on the line and that's concerning. Take the Tampa Bay game for instance, the Canes were competitive in the first two periods and were down only 1-0 heading into the third. They came out flat, were outshot 13-2 and let Tampa run away with it. The same thing happened against Washington after the first period and it nearly happened once more against the Islanders before team mounted a comeback.

I really think it's best to stay rational in this situation since this is only five bad games with a depleted roster. Not to mention that the division still appears to be up for grabs since no one else the Southeast has yet to take control of things yet and the Hurricanes still have 13 divisional games left. Carolina is lucky to be in the position where they are now and the guys on IR are going to come back eventually but even if/when those players return, Carolina needs to get more out of some of the guys currently on the roster, namely their top players.

A little under four weeks ago, the Hurricanes made the decision to send Zac Dalpe down to the AHL to make room for Tim Wallace. Dalpe has been one of Carolina's best forward prospects for quite some time now but he has yet to make his mark in the NHL despite making the Hurricanes out of training camp for three years in a row. I'll admit that he was in a bit over his head during his first two seasons since he wasn't doing much to drive the play against opposing team's fourth lines. There also wasn't much room for him on the roster and he was constantly used on the fourth line instead of being placed in a scoring role, so giving him top-six minutes in the AHL made sense.

Dalpe has been able to thrive in the AHL with the Charlotte Checkers the last couple of seasons and earned a spot on the Hurricanes after training camp this year. The difference was that there was room for him in the top-six as he was played on the second line along with Jordan Staal and Jeff Skinner. Dalpe might have struggled in his previous NHL stints, but he played much better this season and looked like he could finally settle into a full-time role. Then he was re-assigned after playing only six games. Now he is back with the team again and will look to make a more lasting impression this time around, something he was well on his way to doing so during his last stint.

Sure, Dalpe's two points in six games might tell some people that he wasn't doing his job in the top-six, but goals and points are not everything in hockey. I know it's probably frustrating to know that Dalpe hasn't scored a goal since December of 2011, but he has only played in 11 games since then and only six this season. Judging his overall body of work based on a small sample size is not the best thing to do, so the door is open for Dalpe to succeed if he continues to build on what he did during his previous stint with the Hurricanes.

If I can quote an older post, here are some of Dalpe's underlying numbers from right before he was sent down.

Dalpe was making the most of his minutes by creating more scoring chances relative to his ice time than both of his linemates. He was also slightly better than his linemates at territorial play than his linemates while playing some pretty tough minutes on Jordan Staal's line. Dalpe was also one of the team's stronger players in terms of neutral zone play, by having control of the puck on 59% of his zone entries. That percentage is far away from being the best on the team, but it's a fine rate for a top-six forward and better than some other players were performing. Whether or not he can continue that remains to be seen, but it's a little confusing that the Hurricanes decided to send Dalpe back to the AHL when they did because he was doing just about everything right but score.

The Hurricanes have struggled to find linemates for Jordan Staal all season long and things got even more difficult after Jeff Skinner went down with a concussion, so this is a perfect time for Dalpe to step in and make an impact. Dalpe did not miss a beat when returning to AHL play as he continued to tear it up during his most recent stint with five goals and eight points in seven games and a 3.42 shots per game rate. He has already proven what he needs to in the AHL and now it's time for him to get a longer test at the next level. Personally, I thought he should have never been sent down because he was doing a lot of good things with the Hurricanes and didn't do anything to lose his roster spot. The team has needed another scoring forward for awhile now and he should be able to fill that void given the opportunity. .

Much like we can't judge Dalpe as a player based on his small sample size of NHL games he has played, we can't automatically guarantee that he will succeed based on six strong games at the NHL this year. That being said, if he continues to play like he did in his first stint with Carolina this year, then I think he will be in Raleigh to stay.

If you were to poll most Hurricanes fans right now, most would agree that Alexander Semin has been a great addition to the team. He has made their first line a real force to be reckoned with and is usually one of their best players every night. However, I'm sure that most people were hoping that he would have more than three goals 14 games into the season and only one at even strength. His current pace would give him roughly 10-11 goals on the year and that would be only 17-18 in a full-82 game season. It's not that Semin is playing poorly, but the goals just haven't been coming to him for whatever reason.

Going strictly by a goal-per-game rate, one might suggest that Semin is on a decline. He has scored at a rate that was between .4 and .6 goals-per-game for msot of his career but the last two seasons, he's dropped down to below .3. So if you were only looking at goals, then you could say that Semin is on the decline as an offensive player but it's not just all about goals and points. Something people often forget is that a lot of things need to go right for a player to score a goal. The most a player can do when trying to score is find a soft spot in the defense and do his best to pick an open corner in the net when firing a shot on net. I think most would say that Semin has been doing that so far.

So why doesn't he have more goals? To put it bluntly, he hasn't been receiving much shooting luck at all, especially when you compare his numbers with the rest of his career.

In case you didn't know, the Southeast has been clearly the weakest division in the NHL so far. After Tampa Bay's 4-2 win over the Toronto Maple Leafs last night, they are now tied with the Hurricanes for first place in the division with 17 points. Both team's records would put them no higher than third in any other division and make them bubble playoff teams if the automatic qualifer was done away with. I said at the beginning of the year that this division would be very weak but somewhat competitive and so far it's proven that with the Lightning and Hurricanes tied for the top spot and likely alternating throughout the course of the season. The Winnipeg Jets are also not too far behind with 13 points and could find themselves back in the hunt with a good winning streak.

This all begs the question, what will it take to win the Southeast Division this year? The cut-off point for a playoff spot has been predicted to be about 55 points which would equate to roughly 94 in a full 82-game season. Florida had 94 points and won the division last year and I'm hoping that it will take more than that this season, but we could be looking at a similar finish if things continue to stay as they are. 

Let's say that 55 points is what it will take to win the division. How close are the Hurricanes from getting to there compared to their Southeast adversaries? The good news is that they are ahead of the pack, albeit only slightly.